South China Sea show-down has begun. Thucydides trap? A Canadian in Asia Feature.



While the world is distracted, the man whom beloved Barbara Frum‘s (Order of Canada) amazing son calls a ‘reprehensible person’, has fallen into a Thucydides trap in the South China Sea.

Limited conflict is imminent. Avoiding major war is about avoiding any more missteps and in America conceding Trump’s reelection without a vote. Neither is likely and major conflict looms ahead.

Apparent at the recent China Communist Party parliamentary *sessions was a widespread anger toward Trump and to some extent America, shared by local elected representatives from all the 31 provinces of China. This anger authorizes Xi Jinping to take dramatic action should he deem that necessary. Beware, America and its racist **dogs of war. (*National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference) (** Shakespeare. Mark Antony incites buffoons in the crowd at Caesar’s funeral to rise up against his enemies. Something Trump is renown for doing and buffoons are willingly dragged along.)

Hate Chinese feel for America is on a reprehensible Trump lie

These are people who have fought vigorously tooth-and-nail to contain a ferocious virus that killed their families, and above all to provide abundant medical aid to over 140 nations. Their conduct has been humanitarian and in no manner was it ever negligent as ‘a blowhard loudmouth and fool‘ has mischievously claimed.

China suffered immensely with the outbreak of the novel coronavirus that hit America and Europe at exactly the same time, last December and earlier. This is the fatal truth the patriarch ignores while seeking ways to blame inherent failures on others. China discovered the virus that actually caused a much higher rate of deaths by pneumonia of unknown etiology blamed on influenza in America and Europe last December and responded instantly. America failed to discover the spread that had hit northern US States last November and managed the problem exactly in the manner it is doing today, slaughtering Americans now that it has discovered the disease kills mostly black family members.

The presence of the novel coronavirus in America was first discovered by the CDC in bat feces in upper northern states in 2007. CDC has been literally told to STFU and sit in the corner.

“The phrase ‘Thucydides’s Trap’ was coined by an American political scientist and Harvard professor, Graham T. Allison, to describe the phenomena of a rising power and an established dominant power almost always breaking into conflict. He took the term from the writings of Thucydides who was writing on the state of Greek affairs in The History of the Peloponnesian War which describes a series of wars between Athens and Sparta that changed the balance of power in Greece.”—Cameron Greene, Quora

 

America’s imperialistic aims in Asia are annoying everyone except those that America pays handsomely for support. Its occupying forces are in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines where it has taken over most of  if not all five Philippines bases.


South China Sea Feature by Micheal John


Soon America will not be able to pay its choir by simply printing more money with only debt and no gold as a standard.

Happening now, A US Carrier warship flotilla is on exercise in China-claimed territory.

(June 1, 2020) The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) pulls alongside the fleet replenishment oiler USNS Pecos (T-AO 197) during a replenishment-at-sea June 1, 2020. Following an extended visit to Guam in the midst of the COVID-19 global pandemic, Theodore Roosevelt is underway conducting carrier qualifications during a deployment to the Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Kaylianna Genier)

(June 1, 2020) Not far from the Philippines Antonio Bautista Air Base the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) pulls alongside the fleet replenishment oiler USNS Pecos (T-AO 197) during a replenishment-at-sea June 1, 2020. Following an extended visit to Guam in the midst of the COVID-19 global pandemic, Theodore Roosevelt is underway conducting carrier qualifications during a deployment to the Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Kaylianna Genier)
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

America is rapidly going broke.  It never had the color of right to be occupying Asia hence its welcome has worn thin. Why would Asians want to host armed White Supremacists anyway? Stupid leaders or greedy leaders? Let’s take a closer look.

World War II is long over and the American occupation of South Korea and Japan make no sense except to antagonize China and fulfill the dreams of Japan of once again killing another 80 million Chinese as it did in WWII.

History tells the story of the South China Seas. It’s all about wars, and fishing. America wants to make it about oil but Asians are not so keen on their pollution.

It is strange that the very old men who run all the countries involved let you forget how this all began. War.

China, Allied to America, was decimated in WWII

The Chinese were America’s cannon fodder under US General Stilwell.

“The China theater posed unique problems for the U.S. military. Unlike Western Europe, where key partners employed comparable resources, operations in China involved only a handful of U.S. ground and logistical units in support of huge Chinese armies. Moreover, civil strife in China, which long predated the outbreak of World War II and was, at best, only obscured by the struggle with Imperial Japan, made any conventional approach to American support unrealistic. Within both the Nationalist Chinese and Red Chinese armies, internal politics and military reform were inextricably linked, and any hope of creating an effective and conventional Chinese military while temporarily shelving China’s internal political problems was unrealistic.” — Brigadier General John W. Mountcastle Chief Of Military History,  U.S. Army Center of Military History

US troops in China unloading weapons and training Chinese soldiers in 1942

US troops in China unloading weapons and training Chinese soldiers in 1942

China/USA Background

“China’s estimated 400 million people seemed to offer the Allies a great military asset in terms of inexhaustible manpower. Emerging from a century of defeat and humiliation at the hands of European powers and Japan, plus years of civil wars, China in the early 1900s appeared to be moving slowly toward restoring its national sovereignty. By the late 1920s, the Chinese government had gained at least nominal control over most of the country and embarked on a path of reform and modernization, with advice and support from selected foreign governments and individuals. Japan’s undeclared war in China in 1937 gained popular sympathy and respect for the Chinese from the international community. By 1941, for a variety of reasons ranging from noble political idealism to crude anti-Japanese sentiment, the West was again ready to support China,” comments Brigadier General John W. Mountcastle Chief Of Military History,  U.S. Army Center of Military History.

“One key recipient of this support was the Chinese Nationalist Army. Despite Chiang Kai-shek, the Allied Supreme Commander’s apparent unification of China by military force, his army incorporated many units more loyal to their former regional warlords than to his new central government. Nationalist Army units were not only uneven in loyalty but also in quality. On paper China had 3.8 million men under arms in 1941. They were organized into 246 “front-line” divisions, with another 70 divisions assigned to rear areas. Perhaps as many as forty Chinese divisions had been equipped with European-manufactured weapons and trained by foreign, particularly German and Soviet, advisers. The rest of the units were under strength and generally untrained. Overall, the Nationalist Army impressed most Western military observers as more reminiscent of a nineteenth- than a twentieth-century army,” notes General John W. Mountcastle.

China lost at least 80 million citizens during WWII

China got massacred a few times, then swarmed.

Today, China is not pushing back against American military thrusts but it is building a defensive strategy to make sure history never repeats.

There is an inherent problem with this that causes a big mess for China. China is mistaken on its logic; wrong in law; and wrong in practicality on its arguments based on the ‘nine-dash line’ and its territorial waters claims. They all backfire on China. The thinking, warped by echelons of serving men and women trying to please their masters by coming up with the desired answer have created an unfolding but interimly self-diminishing checkmate.

It is a simple mistake that started with a Junior Chinese Officer and got pushed up the line to a politician who decided to use the junior’s mistake based on credentials. It happens often in China’s enormous bureaucracies. Officers reward the things they like to hear and condemn the bad news bearers to career hell.

Xi Jinping needs to take a long hard look at what China cannot lawfully claim as its territorial seas nearby Islands it won in conflicts in the 15th to 17th centuries. This is the 21st century and the logic of those days of yore does not apply. It didn’t then either.

Fixing this would be simple and would not cost China one iota of security. Anyone who has lived in China and studied its culture would understand how this sort of thing can happen. It is now a mistake the hierarchy feels it is stuck with. It isn’t. It’s just an internal error that someone thought they had to back and now feels they have egg on the face if they walk it backwards. Doing so would have zero impact on China’s islands and would remove the raison d’etre for the standoffs in the South China Sea. China could fix this in an instant and would if it didn’t mean a long backwards shuffle inside the bureaucracy. Somebody would have to take the fall and say, “I was wrong.”

Try it. You’ll like it.

 

Today, China is prepared to unleash its long in the making Air Defence Identification Zone  (ADIZ ), according to FPMag‘s Chinese military sources in Shanghai, across the South China Sea where until now America has ruled the skies and left Asia in varying states of constant fear.

This ADIZ may significantly annoy China’s neighbours but China’s biggest concern is the perceived safety of its own people.

PHILIPPINE SEA (May 21, 2020) The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) operates in the Philippine Sea May 21, 2020, following an extended visit to Guam in the midst of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Theodore Roosevelt is underway conducting carrier qualifications during a deployment to the Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Kaylianna Genier)

Philippines portion of the South China Sea.  In this majestic photograph by Kaylianna Genier, the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) operates in the Philippine Sea on May 21, 2020, following an extended visit to Guam in the midst of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Theodore Roosevelt is underway conducting carrier qualifications during a deployment to the Indo-Pacific. Photo Credit: U.S. Navy / Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Kaylianna Genier. Art/cropping/enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

One thing the current Chinese leadership knows from history only too well is that it must take care of the interests of its people and in that way, maintain political stability. The Chinese people must come first above all, or dissent will rule and the country will fly apart.

Anyone who thinks ruling a nation of 1.4 billion various Chinese cultures is easy is living in a dream world. In all of history, the concept of China has never been easy, but it always has been simple: keep the people happy and safe.

Is that working? Not really. There is in China a non-sentimental compromise between the ruling class and those who are ruled. Cold. It will heat up when there is trouble and trouble is something of which the Communist Party members at the lowest levels are terrified to the point of tachycardia.

An example of that is the CPC local reaction to Doctor Li Wenliang’s reports of a strange outbreak of pneumonia. Apoplectic.

Li Wenliang was a Chinese ophthalmologist working at Wuhan Central Hospital on 30 December 2019, when the Wuhan CDC issued emergency warnings to local hospitals about a number of pneumonia cases of unknown etiology discovered in Wuhan before Christmas.

Cold War Between China and America

“Watching the Americans sail by with the Canadians and Australians in tow makes me realize that none of these [********]  belong here and they are why I cannot fish there,” said the Malaysian fisherman pointing to the channel the Americans were sailing through with an attack convoy of warships aimed at intimidating China.

FPMag has been studying the South China Sea from the South China Sea.

The Cold War between the United States and China is becoming more volatile as the US November Election draws closer.

According to sources, the US President has been briefed that Xi Jinping, China’s President  will not go to open war with the United States but can be provoked into making what the American public will see as antagonistic moves if the provocation is kept quiet.

“American media ignores USA misconduct hence US voters see only what the other guy does,” notes a US Marine grimly from Syria.

Typically American media does not report American transgressions. For example, the U.S. media

  •  sees the 3 January 2020 mass murder of a dozen officials in Baghdad as self-defence;
  • accepts the refusal of America to withdraw its military occupation of Iraq, which was requested by the Iraqi parliament in January and repeatedly ever since, as an American prerogative;
  • and sees the bombing of a civilian school bus passing through a crowded market in Dahyan, Saada Governorate, killing 47 children, all under 15 years of age and most under age 10 as collateral damage that is Saudi leader (and American surrogate against Iran in Yemen) Mohammad bin Salman’s fault.

America’s lack of self-observation is important to Donald Trump’s reelection plan because this current United States President who relies on a radical White Supremacy base is in electoral trouble for reelection in November. Trump’s racist attacks on the Chinese are part of his entire existence as a politician.

A reviewer of conservative author David Frum‘s book, Trumpocracy, said “the level of lying, ignorance, corruption, criminality and cruelty is astounding – and unfortunately it has become such a common, everyday thing with Trump that we run the risk of becoming numb to the outrage.”

That was two years ago in 2018. Today, outrage is normal to Americans. The leaderless country has a president who is a kleptocratic racist psychopath.

“Trump is praying for an enemy to blame for his gross incompetence, a War to bump his ratings, and for blizzards to keep the voting booths quiet in November. He may cause a war and the unpredictable effects of climate change may deliver God-knows-what for weather in November,” says an Israeli security analyst.

“The entire country  is almost overwhelmed with nearly ten percent of the nation infected with a vicious and deadly respiratory disease. At least two dozen major cities in the USA are consumed in violent riots after police killed a number of non-white citizens, the last appearing in bystander videos to be a horrific premeditated murder,” notes Simon Baldock, an Israeli security analyst.

“There is more than enough evidence to suggest that Trump is leveraging American law enforcement claiming that the protesting Black Lives Matter movement is nothing but socialist Antifa activity,” noted the former IDF specialist. “Nothing could be further from the truth,” he added.

“Trump and a jingoistic Secretary of Defense exploit the United States armed forces for their staying power on the job. Trump’s shepherding of the American far right and stimulation of the American fascist movements to get them out to the polls while at the same time using every possible ploy to reduce voter turnout in order to exploit the theory that incumbent’s stay if the ‘throw-him-out’ crowd can be kept away from the polls,” says Baldock who suggests that under certain conditions, Trump will be a shoe-in for reelection.

“This [Trump’s second term] is something both China and Russia would like to see. Trump’s withdrawal from the intermediate range nuclear treaty with Russia and subsequent arming the US military with first-use low-yield nuclear warheads has individual Russians who pay attention to security issues in a conniption and bound to support Vladimir Putin,” Baldwin added.

 Xi Jinping needs to stop jerking his knee each time Trump pulls a chain. The goal of driving America’s imperialistic Navy and air bases out of the South and East China Seas was worthwhile but now the American pushback antagonism begins, Xi seems perturbed.

With each intimidation tactic of America, China has taken one more step forward toward militarizing the entire South China Sea.

This is not done in a vacuum. The United States still militarily controls the South China sea with enough nuclear weapons to destroy all of Earth and with the largest array of military assets anywhere on Earth.

The United States has a massive build-up of land, air and naval forces in the Philippines, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, far greater than the entire military assets of all nations in both East and Southeast Asia excluding China.

There are presently two main carrier battle groups in the South China Sea or in the East Asia Pacific depending on which day one looks at satellite images.

America criticizes China for building three 3,000 meter airports in the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. The White House has  been telling the Philippines not-so-well-controlled (as all of his predecessors) President Rodrigo Duterte, that the tropical island archipelago needs American military presence. But it was America that explicitly  told the Philippines in 1946 that the Islands in the West Philippines Seas were owned by China.

America and its jolly band of stupid racist Anglo (Five-Eyes) allies form a White Supremacy parade of warships threading their way past Chinese cargo ships reinforcing the growing Chinese military fortresses it built in the Paracels and the Spratlys.

“Watching them from fishing boats I have almost smelled the wiff of Philippines wild dogs roaming around at night in a procession of butt-sniffing mutts looking for food and sex. It is pitiful but also extremely dangerous. The Chinese operators are as skittish as a canary trapped in the bathroom with five cats and no high-place to perch,” author in a recent radio interview.

We thought that one day in this scenario, somebody would slam the switch down on target acquisition and tracking systems but Philippines Navy sources say the world is well past that point. It is almost common. The next and last step is to release fire control systems to automatic and start launching missiles of which China has a stable full of its newest.

“The point is,” says one such Philippines Naval Commander, “our crews would be equally nervous if in the same shoes as the Chinese, constantly being assailed by at least five navies. But it is nerve wracking for our own crews too, when we see the fire control radar warning lights turn on because we are sailing seas that were recently traversed by a carrier group of multinational warships trying to intimidate China. We are in the middle.”

We’ll see what happens when China unleashes its costly ADIZ.

Liaoning - China aircraft carrier with 4 escorts currently traveling north through Taiwan strait.

Liaoning – China aircraft carrier with 4 escorts. Courtesy People’s Army Navy