USA, India & Brazil expect 105k CoV-deaths by 12 Oct. Wear a mask.
There are some things Civil Society scientists should tell the public.
“Civil Society is a large community of citizens linked by common interests and collective activity,” according to Wikipedia.
Civil Society includes persons who have become a part of a caring group of humanitarians, providing services to fellow humans needing the help. This collection of scientists, doctors, nurses, surgeons, biostatisticians and in fact the best intelligentsia and perhaps the greatest resources—each other in solidarity— around the globe, has a voice in the COVID-19 crisis.
“People must be told that there are some inevitable bad news items. For example, 3% of the 2.46 million people currently hospitalized or sick at home in the United States, will die, give or take a few hundred,” says Fred Harris, a biostatistician who is the team lead for the Civil Society Partnerships for COVID-19 Global Solidarity.
Discussing the impact of this information, Public Health nurse Monique Deslauriers in Calais, Maine, USA suggests, “the only way to mitigate additions to this horrible picture [in the graph below]—which shows an inevitable set of disastrous facts–is to wear a medical (N95) mask; do not touch your mask, use only the straps for donning and doffing the device; no longer touch your face with uncleaned hands; conduct proper hand hygiene before and after touching anything; maintain social distancing of at least two meters; and stay home as much as possible while cleaning all hand-contact points (railings, door knobs, handles) regularly.”
“You risk death by ignoring these guidelines,” says the nurse practitioner to all her American countrymen and to people around the world.
How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?
Credits and source:
“The course of an epidemic is defined by a series of key factors, some of which are poorly understood at present for COVID-19. The basic reproduction number (R0), which defines the mean number of secondary cases generated by one primary case when the population is largely susceptible to infection, determines the overall number of people who are likely to be infected, or more precisely the area under the epidemic curve. For an epidemic to take hold, the value of R0 must be greater than unity in value. A simple calculation gives the fraction likely to be infected without mitigation. This fraction is roughly 1–1/R0. With R0 values for COVID-19 in China around 2·5 in the early stages of the epidemic…
…we calculate that approximately 60% of the population would become infected.
“This is a worst-case scenario for a number of reasons. We are uncertain about transmission in children, some communities are remote and unlikely to be exposed, voluntary social distancing by individuals and communities will have an impact, and mitigation efforts, such as the measures put in place in China, greatly reduce transmission. As an epidemic progresses, the effective reproduction number (R) declines until it falls below unity in value when the epidemic peaks and then decays, either due to the exhaustion of people susceptible to infection or the impact of control measures.” Read the entire document. or download from here: The-Lancet-Projections-PIIS2214109X20303831
“There is a high probability that over the next two years, SARS-CoV-2 will infect 60% of the world population and kill nearly a billion. That’s the model for a failed arrest of the COVID-19 spread. Community spread mitigation of the disease has been achieved in many countries but they do not comprise enough of the world’s population to influence the total impact,” says Harris who cites some of the earliest models for COVID-19 published in the Lancet.
Not just the costs in lives, the cost of hospitalization will reach something collosal per living person if mitigation does not happen fast says study.
From the peer-reviewed published work of
“Since WHO declared the COVID-19 pandemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, more than 20 million cases have been reported, as of Aug 24, 2020. This study aimed to identify what the additional health-care costs of a strategic preparedness and response plan (SPRP) would be if current transmission levels are maintained in a status quo scenario, or under scenarios where transmission is increased or decreased by 50%.The number of COVID-19 cases was projected for 73 low-income and middle-income countries for each of the three scenarios for both 4-week and 12-week timeframes, starting from June 26, 2020. An input-based approach was used to estimate the additional health-care costs associated with human resources, commodities, and capital inputs that would be accrued in implementing the SPRP. Findings
“The total cost estimate for the COVID-19 response in the status quo scenario was US$52·45 billion over 4 weeks, at $8·60 per capita.
“For the decreased or increased transmission scenarios, the totals were $33·08 billion and $61·92 billion, respectively.
“Costs would triple under the status quo and increased transmission scenarios at 12 weeks.
“The costs of the decreased transmission scenario over 12 weeks was equivalent to the cost of the status quo scenario at 4 weeks.
“By percentage of the overall cost, case management (54%), maintaining essential services (21%), rapid response and case investigation (14%), and infection prevention and control (9%) were the main cost drivers.
“The sizeable costs of a COVID-19 response in the health sector will escalate, particularly if transmission increases. Instituting early and comprehensive measures to limit the further spread of the virus will conserve resources and sustain the response.” Read full report in Lancet or download from here: Health-care-costs-PIIS2214109X20303831
Nearly two billion people live in the most infected nations on Earth.
The United States, India and Brazil, led by quasi-dictators, certainly authoritarians, by any definition, have been dishonest, incompetent, and scurrilous in their conduct of pandemic mitigation. These disreputable men are known as liars, two-dimensional, self-absorbed cheats who have exacerbated the SARS-CoV-2 spread and endangered not only their populations but also the human race.
“We on the team in Singapore and Japan look at these three countries as pariahs to the human race. Their leaders are reprehensible and should be tried for their crimes against humanity in an international court, in absentia if needed,” concedes Harris who prefers not to discuss opinions.
The World Health Organization has recommended a minimum set of COVID-19 Mitigation guidelines as follows.
“Masks should be used as part of a comprehensive strategy of measures to suppress transmission and save lives; the use of a mask alone is not sufficient to provide an adequate level of protection against COVID-19. You should also maintain a minimum physical distance of at least 1 metre from others, frequently clean your hands and avoid touching your face and mask.
“Medical masks can protect people wearing the mask from getting infected, as well as can prevent those who have symptoms from spreading them.” Read more here.
Click any image to enlarge and read. Data Source: Civil Society Partnerships for COVID-19 Global Solidarity | Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag
This graph above shows how and why these countries will have at least 104,903 COVID-19 deaths in the next three weeks to 36 days.
The data shows current cumulative deaths and the number of active cases today.
‘Active cases’ in the graph above refers to the number of persons currently confirmed and reported to have been tested and are positive for COVID-19. They are hospitalized or sick at home with COVID-19.
“In actuality the data-based estimates indicate that the number of persons sick at home who have never been tested but have the disease and will die from the disease is 56% of the reported deaths. Biostatisticians are learning more about this as every day goes by,” says Fred Harris, the team leader for the Civil Society Partnerships for COVID-19 Global Solidarity.
What the 60% model (unmitigated pandemic) looks like for the USA (USA heads for 1M deaths by April 2021)
“How other countries are faring. Here are the worst-off among better-led countries. They are nowhere near the catastrophic America, India and Brazil but could suffer because of those failures. This is the case for closing borders. The people must decide, because poverty caused by lack of trade can kill more people than COVID-19,” says biostatistician.
Very Recent DataJanuary 22, 2022
SARS2 Update 2022-01-22 T:10:41 GMT
- 253 Regions reported 345,958,614 cases
- 59,839,384 cases active
- 5,619,221 people reported killed by COVID-19
- 1.62% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
- 280,500,009 survived COVID-19
Beta Technology Global Estimates
- 22.55% of all humans (6,699,142,601) have been infected
- 0.72% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
(influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
- 12,862,115 Total deaths (estimated actual) including errors, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.
EPICENTER: USA (69,966,172)
- 107.97% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (358,926,462.36) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
- 1.26% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
- 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
- 969,101 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is higher than what CSPaC is showing.
COVID-19 Leadership Comparisons
U.S.A.: Joseph Biden
- 70,745,030 Cases
- 886,064 reported out of 969,101 Excess Deaths
- 44,111,071 Recoveries
India: Narendra Modi
- 38,901,485 Cases
- 488,911 Reported Deaths
- 36,290,709 Recoveries
Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro
- 23,751,782 Cases
- 622,563 Reported Deaths
- 21,851,922 Recoveries
UK: Boris Johnson
- 15,709,059 Cases
- 153,490 Reported Deaths
- 11,957,439 Recoveries
--- --- --- Compare --- --- ---
Germany: Olaf Scholz
- 8,535,962 Cases
- 117,219 Deaths
- 7,178,000 Recoveries
Netherlands: Mark Rutte
- 3,778,287 Cases
- 21,200 Deaths
- 2,784,725 Recoveries
Canada: Justin Trudeau
- 2,891,410 Cases
- 32,376 Deaths
- 2,565,901 Recoveries
China: Xi Jinping
- 105,484 Cases
- 4,636 Deaths
- 97,675 Recoveries
South Korea: Moon Jae-In
- 719,269 Cases
- 6,501 Deaths
- 594,023 Recoveries
New Zealand: Jacinda Ardern
- 15,401 Cases
- 52 Deaths
- 14,300 Recoveries
Taiwan: Tsai Ing-wen
- 18,109 Cases
- 851 Deaths
- 16,199 Recoveries