USA heads for 1M deaths by April 2021
“Because a high percentage of the population of the United States is:
- mask averse,
- vaccine averse (right now, influenza vaccines are crucial but soon a SARS2 vaccine will be available),
- zealously racist and thus disdainful of massive fellow American communities, and
- socially inclined to gather in huge crowds,
the outlook for the end of the ‘pandemic year’ is grim for the USA,” explains biostatistician Fred Harris who leads the Civil Society COVID-19 tracking project.
Harris says that the United States has failed in a basic concept of pandemic management. “The leadership of the USA failed to grasp that the small outbreaks are the ones that need the most attention, isolating the infected and tracing through their contacts to isolate the exposed.
Instead the United States causes thousands of minor outbreaks like in Tulsa, Oklahoma where US President Trump held an indoor rally, no masks to be seen, and caused a spreading event that likely led to many thousands of cases by now.
“Then there’s the BLM protests and the Trump federal troops stirring them up to get more people into the streets, causing more minor outbreaks all over some 34 cities in America,” said Harris.
On 10 July, Dr. Michael Ryan of the World Health Organization during a WHO media briefing, used the analogy of the forest fire to describe what Dr. Harris is saying.
“The transmission that occurs in that situation can be single, sporadic cases which can be relatively easily isolated and quarantined. A more worrying pattern is large clusters of cases that could occur in association with super-spreading events, events in which there are large crowds gather, the virus is present and you get a small explosion of cases which can very quickly mushroom into a much larger problem.”
“It’s very analogous to a forest fire; a small fire is hard to see but it’s easy to put out.”
“A large fire is easy to see but very difficult to put out so you really need a system where you can detect the small flames, the small embers that may be there, you can detect a small fire and put that out by good surveillance, by good detection, by aggressive testing and then by isolating cases, quarantining cases.”
“Throughout all of this – and I think this is probably a very central message; that when the virus is present there is a risk of spread. The authorities can have surveillance in place; the authorities need to have that in place, isolation, quarantine; all of those other measures and testing. But ultimately it comes down to communities and individuals and how we project ourselves and how we protect others. When the virus is in your community it is quite clear that there are things you and your community can do to reduce the risk of those infections and it’s very important that people feel empowered, that they have the knowledge to be able to do that.
“So it requires a very strong partnership, a trusting partnership between communities and authorities, a trusting partnership based on honesty, based on transparency, based on regular information that everybody can trust and based on a sustained effort by everybody.”—Dr. Michael Ryan of the World Health Organization
Watch the Trump rally 20 June 2020. “Notice the small group from the Black community having a wonderfully active time with rhythm and dance to a Michael Jackson tune, while the White Trump supporters sit and stare. It’s a Trump rally in the midst of a racial divide that Trump has fed,” says Monique Deslauriers, an American nurse who works as a frontliner on a COVID-19 treatment team.
“I know which group I would join but for sure I would be keeping my distance and wearing a medical mask. This is high risk socializing,” adds the medical frontliner.
Some nine thousand people are packed together at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma wearing no masks and showing no signs of social distancing.
“An American norm”, notes Harris. “This is just one of thousands of minor unchecked outbreaks that biostatisticians are talking about,” says Harris.
Watch: On 20 June 2020, Donald Trump held a rally for his 2020 presidential re-election campaign at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma which resulted in an outbreak of COVID-19 illness.
A close look at this featured Graph explains what’s next
In the worst case scenario, after a third phase of reopening the country including children heading back to school following a boisterous Labor Day long weekend, cases will spike and later, deaths will rise alarmingly.
The death rates will climb as hospitals are overwhelmed and waiting periods for a bed are resumed.
Following the Christmas social season which will spread the SARS-CoV-2 virus across the United States from all the minor outbreaks, the combination of early fall pandemic growth in the USA, plus the complications of what is predicted to be a ferocious influenza season which will further overwhelm hospitals, there will be another spike in deaths in early January 2021 starting a massive rise that will continue through May of 2021 as the steady rise in community spread overwhelms the American health care infrastructure.
“Add to these issues a bizarre leadership failure to respond to the crisis with the fundamental epidemiological ‘universal-must-do’ list, like wearing a mask, implementing ultra hygiene ethics, crowd avoidance, and testing to isolate infections, the USA is in the world’s top five worst and most shameful conditions,” Mr. Harris added.
“The World Health Organization is among many groups that have amassed huge amounts of data and evaluations,” notes the biostatistician.
“Cause and effect relationships have been established for various human behaviours during the pandemic and during others in the past, allowing predictions of the best and worst scenarios to become more fine tuned. One of the problems foreseen in the fight against COVID-19 is ‘vaccine nationalism’. What happens to one person affects many. What happens to one country impacts the entire world,” he added.
“Russia has offered a vaccine to the world which actually appears to be very good based on evaluations of its released data for first and second stage testing. Did so many countries criticize Russia because they do not intend to be so open?,” muses the scientist.
SARS-CoV-2 spread and impact projections for the USA have been discussed widely for weeks using the United States’ Labour Day weekend as the starting point of “3rd Phase” ‘reopening’ of schools, businesses and public facilities like parks, beaches, theatres and themed entertainment centers wherein massive numbers of people congregate.
The Civil Society COVID-19 tracking center has plotted a projection of COVID-19 data to indicate where the United States will be roughly one year after the first major surges in COVID-19 cases slammed the USA.
Very Recent Data
July 1, 2022
U.S.A. (pop. 332,803,287)
- CoV19 Reported Cases: 88,950,302
- Current Reported Deaths:(CFR: 1.18%): 1,036,895 CSPaC.net estimated actual: 1,311,400
- Cured: 84,916,391
- Beta experimental: All time reported + unreported asymptomatic people maybe not sick, not immune, but possibly infectious and including the many people who have had several mild or asymptomatic infections: 485,703,726.76
- 145.94% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (485,703,726.76) human infections, some of which may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
- 1.18% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
- 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
- 1,311,400 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is estimating.
- CoV19 Cases: 463,507,486
- Deaths: 5,341,092 | 1.15%
- Cured: 444,163,208
- Reported + estimated all unreported 3,055,091,567
Note: Total statistics for the United States do not include these offshore territories. The US Military is included as if it is an offshore territory, not reported as continental USA data but as USA overall totals and included in world totals. FPMag evaluates these separately for many reasons.
|Continental US||87,830,692||1,036,895 | 1.18%||84,201,622|
|+US Military||665,332||688 | 0.1%||631,857|
|+Guam||51,769||371 | 0.7%||50,768|
|+Puerto Rico||363,437||4,571 | 1.26%||332,285|
|+US Virgin Islands||20,899||118 | 0.6%||20,555|
|+Northern Mariana Islands||11,759||35 | 0.3%||11,589|
|+American Samoa||6,414||31 | 0.5%||5,958|
The American Epicenter including ALL Territories has 17.60 % of global 'active' cases (2,991,233 USA (incl territories) / 17,000,202 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.
Abundant proof that vaccines are working, an observation derived from unrelated data analysis.
As the epicenter we look at continental USA together with US territories and without. The significant decline in Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the continental United States particularly, during 2 0 2 1, since vaccines became available, is believed to be due to vaccination rates and is abundant proof that the vaccines are working.
In order to avoid letting countries that refuse to report the sum of case recoveries, thus skewing global calculations, Burundi, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Britain, most provinces of Canada, Ecuador, FaeroeIslands, Falklands, Finland, France, French Polynesia, Hong Kong, Iceland, Mongolia, Laos, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Ukraine, South Korea, Tunisia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Spain and Sweden 'recoveries' are estimated based on the current reported global recoveries as a percentage of all cases. (([reported recoveries]) divide (552,457,788 [Global Reported Sum of All Cases] less 30,161,714 [France Sum of Cases] less 909,882 [Ecuador Sum of Cases] less 12,734,038 [Spain Sum of Cases] less 8,190,255 [Netherlands Sum of Cases] less 2,519,199 [Sweden Sum of Cases] less 3,625,091 [Peru Sum of Cases])) = 96% a coefficient which is then adjusted according to the number of cases in the past 30 days and the new coefficient is applied to the sum of each of these nation's cumulative cases to estimate the missing recoveries data. In the case of France some additional hospital-sourced recovery data is factored.
|All USA||Sum of Cases||Deaths||Recovered||Active|
See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.
See also IHME Estimates for America.
COVID-19 Leadership Comparisons
U.S.A.: Joseph Biden
- 88,950,302 Cases
- 1,042,678 reported out of 1,311,400 Excess Deaths
- 84,916,391 Recoveries
India: Narendra Modi
- 43,471,282 Cases
- 525,139 Reported Deaths
- 42,836,906 Recoveries
Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro
- 32,358,451 Cases
- 671,466 Reported Deaths
- 30,846,850 Recoveries
UK: Boris Johnson
- 22,720,345 Cases
- 180,330 Reported Deaths
- 22,145,429 Recoveries
--- --- --- Compare --- --- ---
Germany: Olaf Scholz
- 28,293,960 Cases
- 141,189 Deaths
- 26,702,200 Recoveries
Netherlands: Mark Rutte
- 8,190,255 Cases
- 22,380 Deaths
- 8,023,107 Recoveries
Canada: Justin Trudeau
- 3,954,262 Cases
- 41,992 Deaths
- 3,868,340 Recoveries
China: Xi Jinping
- 225,675 Cases
- 5,226 Deaths
- 220,023 Recoveries
South Korea: Moon Jae-In
- 18,368,857 Cases
- 24,555 Deaths
- 17,812,225 Recoveries
New Zealand: Jacinda Ardern
- 1,345,796 Cases
- 1,473 Deaths
- 1,298,282 Recoveries
Taiwan: Tsai Ing-wen
- 3,803,049 Cases
- 6,772 Deaths
- 2,834,955 Recoveries