Pandemic Worsens as India leads world in COVID-19 infections growth



The day that a record 90,802 new cases were reported for a single country was yesterday. The next 24 hours report may be worse.

With a population of a little more than 1.35 billion, India is now vulnerable to a calamitous spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus which causes the COVID-19 disease.

India has one doctor for every twelve thousand persons which is one twelfth of WHO suggested “one per a thousand“.

By 2024 or as late as 2026, according to UN Population Division estimates and others, India will be the most populous country in the world. It’s almost there.

India has been overtaking China’s population which has been around 70 million greater than India’s. India’s population growth has been challenged by its government in an attempt to curb overpopulation, hunger and malnutrition in the poorer regions.


by Melissa Hemingway


“Following a timid response to COVID-19 and the recent release from a strict quarantine to invigorate the economy, India has now an explosive surge that puts the country in serious trouble,” says Fred Harris, a  biostatistician at the Civil Society COVID-19 tracking project.

“India is nowhere near the peak and is barely able to cope with the outbreaks in the major cities. I perceive that initially India ignored the small pockets of infections which have now spread to even the northern Pradesh’s like a California wildfire,” he added.

India surges ahead of Brazil in cumulative numbers of COVID-19 Infections

“India surges ahead of Brazil in cumulative numbers of COVID-19 Infections,” says biostatistician at the Civil Society COVID-19 tracking project.
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

“Uttar Pradesh, the most populous province of India, has 253,175 cumulative cases and has reported 3,762 deaths. The current surge is seriously challenging healthcare resources,” Harris added pointing out that India’s mortality surveillance system is among the world’s weakest.

“People are dying before the ambulance arrives.”

Doctor Anderson of The RINJ Foundation has been critical of  the “Narendra Modi government’s propensity to adopt witch-doctoring.”

“Traditional herbal medicines were maybe OK nine hundred years ago for removing warts if they removed warts without killing or harming the patient, but today only a medical science-based approach is relevant to COVID-19 and the SARS-CoV-2 virus, unless you happen to be a bat which has somehow learned to suppress this virus maybe for hundreds of centuries. Melissa, Narendra Modi is no bat but he sounds batty,” said the good doctor.

This jab likely refers to Modi’s insistence that Indians use a homeopathic blend of herbs and other medically-off-track ideas in conjunction with washing hands, the latter of which is a good idea.

We all know cow dung is very helpful. Likewise, when cow urine is sprayed, it purifies an area. I believe something similar could be done with cow urine, cow dung to cure #coronavirus: Assam BJP MLA Suman Haripriya — Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) March 2, 2020

Spike in cumulative COVID-19 Cases in India May not tell the story of all provinces

Spike in cumulative COVID-19 Cases in India May not tell the story of all provinces. Photo Credit: YouTube Video Capture 09/06/2020 Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

Cumulative cases surge in India

Cumulative cases surge in India. “India surges ahead of Brazil in cumulative numbers of COVID-19 Infections,” says biostatistician at the Civil Society COVID-19 tracking project.
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

“India’s COVID-19 death count (*71711) is completely unreliable. Lowest estimate is 168,345, but some local statisticians have pegged the number of infection-deaths at over 1.5 million.” says biostatistician Harris at the Civil Society COVID-19 tracking project.

In the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic, India reported its first case at the end of January but had begun a comprehensive surveillance on 17 January.

At the beginning of July, Ipchita BharaliPreeti Kumar, and Sakthivel Selvaraj writing for the Brookings Institute Blog urged the following steps to be taken by the government of India.

“Increase testing capacity. India can do this quickly by harnessing the capacity of the private sector for laboratories, test kits, and supplies. But the government will also have to increase the density and capacity of test sites and laboratories and improve procurement and supply chains. India’s domestic PPE kit production has been a great success story, which provides reasons for optimism.

“Assist poor workers. Steps to help poor migrant workers include programs offered by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation in their 2017 report. These policies include provision of affordable housing, emergency employment schemes, and access to social entitlements and service provisions. The recent announcement on provision of essential food supplies to 800 million people is a step in the right direction.

“Maintain regular health services. Maintain essential critical health services and disease programs to avoid a resurgence of vaccine preventable diseases, infectious diseases, and chronic illnesses. Both the central and state governments should look to expand strategic investments and partnerships with the private sector, development partners, and community health workers to strengthen surge capacity and ensure continuity of health provision.

“Enforce emergency measures. Enforce sensible social distancing, effective quarantine procedures, mandatory mask-wearing and hand hygiene habits, along with improved detection, containment, and mitigation.

“Enable responsible monitoring. Introduce and ensure national data privacy laws to improve India’s health emergency response and safeguard against data privacy concerns.”

 

Deaths from COVID-19 in India expected to climb to an atrocious rate by December

A cavalier attitude in India when the world reported outbreaks and India was slow to become infected. Deaths are now predicted to lead the world by December as the largest surge in the world occurs across India’s 1.35 Billion People. Photo Credit: YouTube Video Capture 09/06/2020 Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

India is not alone. Global Cumulative COVID-19 cases and the commensurate deaths have been climbing like a fast elevator.

253 Locales report 331,410,518 COVID-19 cases of which there are 53,082,854 active cases, therefore 272,745,617 recoveries and 5,582,047 fatalities.

GMT 2022-01-18 02:41

Data reported should be in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in each locale as their governments report daily or from time to time. All data researched and published by The RINJ Foundation and partners in CSPaC.

©The RINJ Foundation 2020-2022-01-18T02:41:37Z #Singapore-SK-HUK-77
RINJ is with Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19.

SARS2 Update 2022-01-18 02:41 GMT

  • Global Population: 7,871,660,945
  • 253 Regions reported 331,410,518 cases
  • 53,082,854 cases active
  • 5,582,047 people reported killed by COVID-19
  • 1.68% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
  • 272,745,617 survived COVID-19
Beta Technology Global Estimates
  • 21.60% of all humans (1,700,135,957) have been infected
  • 0.75% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
    (influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
  • 12,777,026 Total deaths (estimated actual) including errors, unexpected deaths with pneumonia indications with no history, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.
USA (67,454,108)
  • 102.95% of the USA may have been infected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (342,232,990.92) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.30% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.28% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 958,252 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is higher than what CSPaC is showing.
  • The American Epicenter has 44.11 % of global 'active' cases (23,414,120 USA / 53,082,854 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Below: CSPAC estimated 2022-01-18 02:27 GMT COVID-19 data for India.

EPICENTER-2: India (37,602,832)

Reported*Cases*Deaths*CFR*Recovered
India37,602,832486,7841.3%35,378,872
*Reported by India but understated.

Note: India's reported death sum and cured data are widely seen among epidemiologists and biostatisticians as unreliable. For example, 2,677,263 is CSPAC estimated sum of deaths while India reports 486,784, creating the largest discepency in the world. India might only report hospital tested cases. Sources among hundreds of nurses and other medical practitioners provide a picture that in summary concludes most cases never present in a hospital especially in northern provinces where health care is less available and utilization is low anyway because of poverty, hence most people die at home in India. This theory could explain discrepancies between reported data and algorithmic estimates.

LocaleCasesDeathsActive
India reported:37,602,832486,7841,737,176
India estimates:192,902,5282,677,2638,731,651

Data collected and reported by: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19

 

COVID-19 Top 25 Most Infected Nations
(Only valid for 2020-09-07 10:32 GMT. See January 18, 2022 Report for latest.)

Nation (25/232) Cases Deaths Recovered
United States 6460421 193253 3726099
India 4208645 *71711/168345 3250429
Brazil 4137606 126686 3317227
Russia 1030690 17871 843277
Peru 689977 29838 515039
Colombia 666521 21412 518229
South Africa 638517 14889 563891
Mexico 634023 67558 442268
Spain 498989 30730 150376
Argentina 478792 9859 349132
Chile 422510 11592 394399
Iran 386658 22293 333900
United Kingdom 349505 41640 _
France 347267 30730 87927
Bangladesh 325157 4479 221275
Saudi Arabia 320688 4081 296737
Pakistan 298903 6345 286016
Turkey 279806 6673 251105
Italy 277634 35541 210015
Iraq 260370 7512 198560
Germany 251724 9401 227000
Philippines 237365 3875 184687
Indonesia 194109 8025 138575
Ukraine 138068 2877 62606
Canada 133890 9193 118190
  1. *”Death Count (*71711) in India is completely unreliable. Lowest estimate is 168,345, but some local statisticians have pegged the number of infection-deaths at over 1.5 million.” says biostatistician at the Civil Society COVID-19 tracking project. 
  2. Sources
  3. Data Report History