USA 1 Million deaths by Spring on Donald Trump Plan. Multiple models.

By the end of March 2021, the Civil Society Partners for COVID-19 Pandemic Solidarity has predicted for over three months now that the USA will suffer one million COVID-19 deaths unless its current course of action is corrected.

by Micheal John

Excess mortality as a more reliable metric, says Civil Society expert and numerous scientific papers published in Q3-2020

Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) have released their new numbers, updating the COVID-19 death toll forecast through Feb. 1, 2021, in the United States using the Trump government published data.

One million excess deaths due to COIVD-19 by April 2021 unless mitigation behaviour improves.

One million excess deaths due to COIVD-19 by April 2021 unless mitigation behaviour improves.
Photo Source: CDC (
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

The University of Washington model shows that nearly 2,900 deaths daily by the end of December, will bring the total deaths to about 502,854 by the end of January if mask wearing mandates continue to ease. Note: The raw data from this study can be downloaded (

Fred Harris of the Civil Society Partners for COVID-19 Pandemic Solidarity explains that his group has arrived at essentially the same numbers, but a little higher using a complex coefficient for a polynomial equation to achieve estimated actual deaths vs the US reported numbers of deaths.

“This is done by including the excess deaths in the equation for the past fifteen years, building an algorithm to create a trend line,” explains Harris. “We also had to establish a formula to express and remove those excess deaths that cannot be attributed to  COVID-19.”

Why use actual and projected excess deaths to build future-looking models?

“Excess mortality: the gold standard in measuring the impact of COVID-19 worldwide?” is a report of the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.

The report sets out that,

“As the pandemic has progressed, there has been a growing focus on excess mortality as a more reliable metric for comparing countries. Excess mortality provides an estimate of the additional number of deaths within a given time period in a geographical region (e.g. country), compared to the number of deaths expected (often estimated using the same time period in the preceding year or averaged over several preceding years). In encompassing deaths from all causes, excess mortality overcomes the variation between countries in reporting and testing of COVID-19 and in the misclassification of the cause of death on death certificates. Under the assumption that the incidence of other diseases remains steady over time, then excess deaths can be viewed as those caused both directly and indirectly by COVID-19 and gives a summary measure of the ‘whole system’ impact. Excess mortality can also be standardised for age or population size to aid comparability between countries.”.

“For each ten reported deaths from COVID-19 the actual number is thirteen in most months including the excess deaths that were not tested but had pneumonia, thrombosis or other indicators resembling COVID-19,” he explained.

“Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus,” reported the New York Times researchers on 12 August 2020.

“We decided to take this approach months ago,” said Harris, “because we noticed a change in testing numbers and reported data as the 2020 Election campaign heated up. We did not want to be reliant on reported numbers that were being fudged as part of an election campaign so we track excess deaths and compare those numbers to reported Case Fatality Rates (CFR) and Infection Fatality Rates (IFR). That is why we looked for corroborating data from the actual excess death reports.”

“We find that official COVID-19 mortality substantially understates actual mortality,” says new report.

The report, “Excess Mortality in the United States During the First Three Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic” by Roberto RiveraJanet Rosenbaum, and Walter Quispe sets out that “Deaths are frequently under-estimated during emergencies, times when accurate mortality estimates are crucial for emergency response. This study estimates excess all-cause, pneumonia, and influenza mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic using the September 11, 2020 release of weekly mortality data from the United States.”

“So far in Q2 and Q3 2020 the Civil Society Partners model is accurate,” says Harris.

“Predicting out to the end of April 2021 since September has been a long shot,” he adds.

“We know that not all excess deaths can be attributed to COVID-19 hence we factor an attribution to other causes, which may cause a slight understatement.”

“Modelling that far out is seldom accurate but because the USA is not taking mitigation steps and the US President is encouraging mass gatherings without masks, it’s as if there is no stopping this thing and we know what happens in that scenario. If even 60 to 95% of America started properly wearing approved masks, this line would flatten out by hundreds of thousands of cases,” Harris added.

“People should not resign themselves to this outcome. If Americans elect a new president, and I think there are a couple of contenders to the incumbent, a change in direction after the third week in January could avert an enormous amount of deaths. If the USA keeps the present administration, America will be in the midst of a slaughter by COVID-19 disease that will get worse as time marches on,” Harris predicted.

Click any images in this article to enlarge and read.

Graphed Projections based on actual excess death reports, thus likely actual COVID-19 Deaths:

One million deaths by end of March 2021 in the United States

One million deaths by end of March 2021 in the United States Unless USA population adheres to mitigation behaviours. Source: Civil Society Partners for COVID-19 Pandemic Solidarity

Graphed Projections from the University of Washington (IHME) based on US Government reported deaths. “We are showing the same projections,” said Civil Society Team lead.

Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) have released their new numbers, updating its COVID-19 death toll forecast through Feb. 1, 2021, in the United States.  The model shows that nearly 2,900 deaths daily by the end of December, will bring the total deaths to about 502,854 by the end of January if mask wearing continues to ease.  Source: 

Read below June 27, 2022 Data from Civil Society Partners for COVID-19 Pandemic Solidarity

U.S.A. (pop. 332,803,287)

  • CoV19 Reported Cases: 88,391,882
  • Current Reported Deaths:(CFR: 1.19%): 1,035,065 estimated actual: 1,303,175
  • Cured: 84,513,615
  • Beta experimental: All time reported + unreported asymptomatic people maybe not sick, not immune, but possibly infectious and including the many people who have had several mild or asymptomatic infections: 482,657,587.09
  • 145.03% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (482,657,587.09) human infections, some of which may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.19% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 1,303,175 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is estimating.
Rest of the world excluding USA.
  • CoV19 Cases: 460,176,307
  • Deaths: 5,335,466 | 1.16%
  • Cured: 441,499,174
  • Reported + estimated all unreported 3,033,582,085

Note: Total statistics for the United States do not include these offshore territories. The US Military is included as if it is an offshore territory, not reported as continental USA data but as USA overall totals and included in world totals. FPMag evaluates these separately for many reasons.

Continental US87,279,8531,035,065 | 1.19%83,802,378
+US Military661,831688 | 0.1%628,967
+Guam51,234371 | 0.7%50,338
+Puerto Rico 360,1924,529 | 1.26%329,318
+US Virgin Islands20,789118 | 0.6%20,455
+Northern Mariana Islands11,56934 | 0.3%11,477
+American Samoa6,41431 | 0.5%5,958

The American Epicenter including ALL Territories has 17.53 % of global 'active' cases (2,837,462 USA (incl territories) / 16,184,869 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Abundant proof that vaccines are working, an observation derived from unrelated data analysis.

As the epicenter we look at continental USA together with US territories and without. The significant decline in Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the continental United States particularly, during 2 0 2 1, since vaccines became available, is believed to be due to vaccination rates and is abundant proof that the vaccines are working.

In order to avoid letting countries that refuse to report the sum of case recoveries, thus skewing global calculations, Burundi, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Britain, most provinces of Canada, Ecuador, FaeroeIslands, Falklands, Finland, France, French Polynesia, Hong Kong, Iceland, Mongolia, Laos, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Ukraine, South Korea, Tunisia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Spain and Sweden 'recoveries' are estimated based on the current reported global recoveries as a percentage of all cases. (([reported recoveries]) divide (548,568,189 [Global Reported Sum of All Cases] less 29,596,809 [France Sum of Cases] less 901,739 [Ecuador Sum of Cases] less 12,681,820 [Spain Sum of Cases] less 8,152,778 [Netherlands Sum of Cases] less 2,515,769 [Sweden Sum of Cases] less 3,616,929 [Peru Sum of Cases])) = 96% a coefficient which is then adjusted according to the number of cases in the past 30 days and the new coefficient is applied to the sum of each of these nation's cumulative cases to estimate the missing recoveries data. In the case of France some additional hospital-sourced recovery data is factored.

All USASum of CasesDeathsRecoveredActive
Continental USA87,279,8531,035,06583,802,3782,442,410


See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

See also IHME Estimates for America.

A Reckless USA President Super Spreader

White House Afflicted since 26 Sept. 2020

1 Unidentified Campaign StaffTrump Campaign
1 Unidentified MilitaryDriver Assigned to the US President
11 unidentified personsDebate preparation staff or media
136 Secret Service OfficersSecurity details on Trump Campaign rallies.
2 unidentified Pence StaffersExposed to Marty Obst
2 unidentified StaffersWhite House residence staff
Admiral Charles RayVice Commandant of the Coast Guard
Al DragoPress Room Photographer/Journalist
Andrew GiulianiWhite House aide, Rudy's son
Barron Trump(14)Son of Mr. and Mrs. Melania Trump
Ben CarsonUnited States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
Bill Stepien(42)Trump campaign manager, former White House Director of Political Affairs
Boris Epshteyn 2020 Trump campaign strategic advisor for coalitions
Brian JackWhite House Director of Political Affairs and Assistant to the President
Chad GilmartinWhite House Press Room Staff
Charlton Boydaide to Jared Kushner
Chris Christie(58) HFormerGovernor of New Jersey
Chuck Grassley US Senator
Claudia Conway(15)Daughter of Kellyanne Conway
Corey Lewandowski2016 Trump campaign manager
Crede BaileyHead of White House Security Office
David BernhardtInterior Secretary
David BossieHead of Citizens United; appointed by Trump to lead election challenge effort
Devin NunesUS Representative from California
Donald Trump JuniorSon of 45th President of the United States
Donald Trump(74) H45th President of the United States
Gen. Gary ThomasMarine Corps assistant commandant
Greg Laurie(68)Senior pastor of Harvest Christian Fellowship
Healy Baumgardner2016 Trump campaign spokesperson and energy lobbyist
Hope Hicks(31)Senior Counselor to the President
Jalen Drummond (31)Assistant White House Press Secretary
Jayna McCarron (35)(Lt. Cmdr.) US Coast Guard Aide to the President
Jeff MillerRepublican strategist and lobbyist
Jenna EllisTrump Campaign attorney
John I. Jenkins(65)President of Notre Dame University
Karoline LeavittAssistant Press Secretary
Kayleigh McEnany (32)White House press secretary
Kelly LoefflerUS Senator
Kellyanne Conway(53)Former Counselor to the President
Liz and Dick UihleinDonors and founder of Uline
Marc Short(50)Chief of Staff to M. Pence
Mark MeadowsWhite House Chief of Staff
Marty Obst(50)Advisor to M. Pence
Matt GaetzCongressman from Florida
Melania Trump(50)First Lady of the United States
Michael D. Shear & WifeWhite House correspondent for The New York Times
Mike Bost(59)US Representative from IL-12 exposed to Mike Lee (below)
Mike Lee (49)United States Senator from Utah
Multiple unidentified staffersWhite House staffers
Nicholas Luna (34)Body man to Donald Trump
Nick TrainorTrump Campaign Battleground States Director
Richard WaltersChief of staff of the Republican National Committee
Rick ScottUS Senator, former Governor of Florida
Ron Johnson (65)Senator from Wisconsin
Ronna McDaniel(47)Chair of the Republican National Committee
Rudy GiulianiTrump personal lawyer
Salud Carbajal (55) (D)United States Representative from CA-24 (exposed to Mike Lee)
Stephen Miller (35)Senior Advisor to the President
Thom Tillis (60)United States Senator from North Carolina
Trish ScaliaWife of Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia
Two unidentified journalistsWhite House press room journalists
unknown number of White House staffersAttendees at Trump's Election Night party on 3 Nov.
Zach BauerBody Man to M. Pence

Narcissism at work? Why did Trump not start a deep investigation of contacts of the infected Americans and begin isolation of those potentially infected compatriots? He said it was “because it would look bad” if more cases were found.

The Universal advice from medical experts around the world is “Wear A Mask, maintain social distancing, and wash your hands frequently.”