Festive season 2020 may be a mother of all community spreading
From now until after January 6, one festivity after another will gather people together and spread the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that causes COVID-19.
Public health officials around the world have a lot to worry about.
Celebrated all around the word, India’s Diwali is an equivalent holiday to Christmas as COVID-19 cases rise in over 30 nations.
Diwali has begun. It is a five-day festival, the height of which is celebrated on the third day coinciding with the darkest night of the lunar month.
During the festival, Hindus, Jains and Sikhs illuminate their homes, temples and work spaces with diyas, candles and lanterns. There is much celebration and although crowd sizes are limited by guidelines and more strict bylaws, officials reportedly fear the worst.
Note: Read Vaccine Update
Ontario, Canada Report Looks at all of North America
Dr. David Williams, Ontario, Canada’s chief medical officer of health, has emphasized the importance of public health guidelines including mask wearing, hand hygiene, social distancing and more.
“Individual behaviour is important to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus in the province,” said Dr. Williams.
Ontario Canada alone, may reach 6,500 daily new cases of COVID-19 by mid-December according to modeling done by the Ontario Science Advisory table. New data suggests that in Ontario, daily case numbers are likely to exceed those of European cities currently having some form of lockdown.
The report is authored by Dr. Peter Jüni, Scientific Director, Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table (12 November, 2020).
According to the 12 November report, which looks at all of North America, “Less than 10% of cases of SARS-CoV-2 transmission are linked to outbreaks, and settings of outbreaks are not representative of community transmission. The setting of transmission is unknown in approximately 60% of cases, and 40 to 60% of cases are considered to be due to community transmission.”
“Restaurants with indoor dining are the most frequently visited venues in North America and external evidence indicates that gatherings in public and private settings must predominantly be responsible for community transmission,” says the report.
“Outbreak data are important as markers to inform decision making, but not relevant to determine how community transmission can be reduced. Although controversial and challenging, restrictions appear to control surges in Ottawa, and are likely to have contributed to controlling surges in Toronto and Peel, even though to a lesser extent.”
Nations with today’s most rapid growth in cumulative cases.
Stanford University Study: Past Donald Trump Political Rallies provided data showing the spread of SARS2 in crowds of minimal public health guidelines adherence. Over 30,000 cases and 700 deaths for 18 events.
This weekend, Donald Trump supporters in the thousands are marching in Washington DC to protest Donald Trump’s thorough trouncing in the 3 November presidential election. The candidate has not appeared before the press to answer questions since the election but he has been tweeting a bundle of disinformation that has aroused various illegal militia groups and ordinary voters to come to a Washington DC protest.
Like all of Trump’s rallies, which according to a study at Stanford University, led to some 30,000 cases of the disease caused by SARS2, this one is feared. There will likely be a substantial community spread as a result of the event, say American public health officials in media briefings in which officials urge public health guidelines like the wearing of a face covering. A study by Stanford University scientists confirm DC officials’ fears.
“Extrapolating this figure to the entire sample, we conclude that these eighteen rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19. Applying county-specific post-event death rates, we conclude that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths (not necessarily among attendees).”
“Some 68,500 persons are hospitalized in the USA with COVID-29 and daily cases in the United States this week climbed close to hitting the 200,000 marker,” according to Fred Harris who leads the Civil Society Partners for COVID-19 Pandemic Solidarity tracking team.
In the United States, 26 November is Thanksgiving, the biggest celebration of the year for many
According to the Hopper Holiday Travel Confidence Report released in late September, “Holiday travel is bound to look a little different this year. While air travel is still down considerably compared to the same time last year, recent data from the TSA found that travel has increased 700% since early days of the pandemic. Though when and why to travel is personal, changing temps and recent trends have many Americans starting to consider their plans for the holiday season – whether that’s hitting the road, skies, or just staying home.”
To better understand how people are planning for the holidays this year, Hopper surveyed consumers to ask about their plans, and if/how they hope to travel this holiday season.
“According to Hopper’s new Holiday Travel Confidence Report, 39% of Americans say they plan to travel during the holidays this year. However, 21% have said they do not plan to travel, though in a typical year they would.”