Civil Society Alarm for Canada. Voluntarily Lockdown now



“Without drastic action now, SARS2 infections in Canada will go to 500K  by January running at 20K daily. A hard voluntary lockdown to year’s end; cancelling Christmas; and strong adherence to Public Health Canada guidelines can produce a COVID-Slamming outcome. Do it,” says Canadian biostatistician expert.

If in the worst case scenario, Canadians do not stop this, 70% of the country will become infected over time and incomprehensibly massive deaths will result.

Here is Canada’s best case scenario if a lockdown is implemented immediately through the end of the year, in three, large, key regions. Others may also be needed, determined locally if situations change.

FPMag has seen the alternative models from the Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19 in Singapore, but that fiasco will not occur as already Ontario is taking appropriate action and hopefully Albertans and Quebecers will take this seriously as well.

Canadians must implement 100% of all Canada Public Health guidelines. Wearing a mask, social distancing, maintaining hand hygiene, staying home, and in fact adopt all of the measures set out by Health Canada is what you need.


by Micheal John


A hard lockdown. Cancelling Christmas can produce a better outcome. Without drastic action now, cases in Canada will exceed half a million by January running at about 20,000 per day. Source: Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19

Tracking every country in the world since December 2019, the civil society solidarity partners are clinicians, hands-on practitioners, from around the world. This group has raised an alarm again for Canada. The last alarm was ignored and the surge since August is now exacerbated.

What Canadians are doing now does not work,” says biostatistician Fred Harris, who heads the civil society tracking team.

“This is not about government, this is about Canadians’ behaviour. Turn off the American TV and turn off CTV and CBC which seem almost to cover the psychopath, quasi-fascist Donald Trump more than they seem to cover their own Prime Minister,” says Sandra Chu, a Canadian from Manitoba working on Mr. Harris’s team. “Listen to science,” she added.

“America is killing Canada, because Canadians are listening to the wack-job in the White House. America is in deep trouble and Canada is following down her path,” notes Harris.

“If you live in Weyburn or Estevan Saskatchewan and the only TV you get is coming from the USA; same with radio; same with newspapers and books; are you really a Canadian? Turn to Ottawa now. Close the borders for real. Mask up, stay home and enjoy living. The alternatives are extremely grim for the people of Southern Saskatchewan and most of the under 25,000 towns and villages across the country far from a hospital with a COVID-19 ICU. Many of those Canadians will die from a SARS2 infection. Do not take that risk.”

Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19 have graphed a positive outlook if Canada locks down in three regions.

But biostatisticians say if Canadians ignore the warnings this time, this could go to a national fail and 70% population infected with massive deaths “because of the distances that separate us from each other and our hospitals”.

Canadian PM: “A Normal Christmas is Out of the Question.”

Justin Trudeau, Canda's Prime Minister

Canadian PM: “A Normal Christmas is Out of the Question”
Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19
have graphed a positive outlook if Canada locks down in three regions.
But biostatisticians say if Canadians ignore the warnings, this could go to a national fail and 70% population infected with massive deaths “because of the distances that separate us from each other and our hospitals. Photo Credit CPAC Video Capture. Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

This is what Canadians have been doing since the first major warning from the medical statisticians.

“Hey, half of us are Canadians. We care, and when we see what we have been tracking we wish we could come home. We can’t. The world is shut down. But we share what we know,” says Mr. Harris to Sharon Santiago on Zoom from Singapore to Manila at the South Pacific Regional office of FPMag.

walking up and down crowded sidewalks, Quebecers are not wearing masks and not maintaining social distance.

Plateau Mont Royal, Walking up and down crowded sidewalks yesterday, Quebecers are not wearing masks and not maintaining social distance. Photo Credit: Vertigo/RINJ Security. Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

The current daily active cases and cumulative deaths in Canada.

CANADA Daily cumulative deaths and daily actual active cases

CANADA Daily cumulative deaths and daily actual active cases. Source: Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19


Canada’s infection trend is a disaster path. Stop listening to Trump and wear a Mask.

This is the trend that is most informative for raising an alarm. These are daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Canada.

This is the trend that is most informative for raising an alarm.
These are daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Canada.

The following data will update several times a day. June 29, 2022

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:3,948,18641,896 1.06% CFR3,852,87953,411
Estimate:21,833,46954,464 *0.25% IFR21,306,421295,363

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:41,8961.063,948,1863,852,87953,411
* Quebec15,5721.431,087,0251,061,41710,036
Ontario13,4451.011,337,4641,303,79220,227
Alberta4,6040.78587,890574,4688,818
BC3,7221.00373,985364,6535,610
Manitoba2,0251.39145,326141,1212,180
Sask1,3961.00139,617136,1272,094
First Nations7400.67110,221108,0131,468
NB4220.6367,24165,8101,009
Nova Scotia4210.42101,34799,4061,520
NL1890.4047,35346,454710
* PEI450.1140,80639,6931,068
Yukon260.584,4534,36067
* NWT220.1812,13512,09419
Nunavut70.203,5313,47153
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals41,8961.063,948,1863,852,87953,411

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,833,469 (56.35% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-06-29 are estimated to be 54,584 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,584 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54464 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54464 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District8,581570.7%8,44579
Brant County11,873830.7%11,74149
Chatham-Kent8,798921.0%8,68323
Durham Region63,0714960.8%62,295280
Eastern Ontario16,0972181.4%15,82158
Grey Bruce8,873690.8%8,76737
Haldimand-Norfolk8,810830.9%8,68542
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge9,4981111.2%9,33255
Halton Region49,6273270.7%49,057243
Hamilton58,9745711.0%58,066337
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties10,388630.6%10,25471
Huron Perth7,4281111.5%7,29126
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington17,560600.3%17,298202
Lambton County11,9031461.2%11,72334
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District9,5671061.1%9,357104
Middlesex-London38,5234011.0%37,964158
Niagara Region41,5845481.3%40,829207
North Bay Parry Sound District6,132440.7%6,03751
Northwestern9,604220.2%9,266316
Ottawa74,5528181.1%73,252482
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas13,9911691.2%13,76755
Peel Region186,6161,3560.7%184,468792
Peterborough County-City7,607801.1%7,48146
Porcupine7,431690.9%7,32141
Renfrew County And District4,827501.0%4,74433
Simcoe Muskoka District46,6344380.9%45,927269
Sudbury And District15,5221501.0%15,240132
Thunder Bay District12,907960.7%12,640171
Timiskaming1,985241.2%1,94615
Toronto324,7164,2631.3%318,6531,800
Waterloo Region46,7564210.9%46,139196
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph22,4621620.7%22,193107
Windsor-Essex County44,2246321.4%43,433159
York Region112,8551,0420.9%111,193620
Last Updated: 2022-06-29 Time 05:46:25 GMT. Source: CSPaC

 

Wear a face shield. This type is best because it blocks a throughput of air from top to bottom.

Wearing a mask and a face shield to go shopping helps protect your mask and enables greater reusability of the mask. Photo Credit: Melissa Hemingway

Wear a mask

Wear a mask. Photo Credit: Melissa Hemingway