Canada may only be as strong as its weakest links



As the pseudo-fascist cult of Donald Trump continues its spread into Canada, some very dire concerns arise. The potential for persistent infection and re-infection in Canada is real. Currently the trendlines are foreboding.

Losing the country as it is known is likely under the current circumstances.  Once hospitals become overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients, others with chronic and acute health needs are at mortal risk.

This problem can grow exponentially over time. An overtaxed health care system  will impact children and seniors first and then adult patients with cardiovascular issues, blood glucose issues, other chronic illness, and in particular, respiratory problems.


by Micheal John


Canada could meet its demise against COVID-19 in the not too far off future. There comes a point when hospitals are overwhelmed, and a rapid increase in infections leads to a more rapid increase in increasing cycles with a growing death rate as time passes.  COVID-19 is poised to take a horrendous toll and the ugliness of civil unrest and violence following in the vein of US origins, is in its incipient stages.

Canada’s weakest links.
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

 Canada Cumulative COVID 19 Cases Rise 200k in a month

Canada Cumulative COVID 19 Cases Rise 200k in a month. Source: Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19

Canada's projected cumulative cases for years end predicts a humanitarian disaster by Spring 2021

Canada’s projected cumulative cases for year’s end is part of a model that predicts a humanitarian disaster by Spring 2021. Source: Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19

Let’s talk about the pandemic first.

There are two worrisome facts that have scientists sweating a little. They apply everywhere.

1.) The disease is spreading into the wild through captive animals like the mink which escapes farms at a significant rate. Also, raccoons are candidates for infection. That’s not the bad part, it’s this: when migration of the SARS-CoV-2 occurs back to animals, the virus has been morphing into what scientists are calling the c+ sequence which when infecting back into humans cuts the efficacy of human vaccines.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), “Several animals that have been in contact with infected humans, such as minks, dogs, domestic cats, lions and tigers, have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.”

The European Centers for Disease Control’s report document published 12 November 2020, says that, “Since April 2020, when the first SARS-CoV-2 infection was reported in the Netherlands in a mink and subsequently in  a mink farm worker, it has been established that human-to-mink and mink-to-human transmission can occur.

In a subsequent chapter of the European report, the authors explain the findings that “When a virus switches host species, an increased mutation rate can be observed
due to the virus adapting to its new host. Mutations in the structural proteins of the virus, altering the antigenic properties of the strain, can lead to reduced effectiveness of the immune response if the immunity was acquired through infection by a strain, or a vaccine derived from a strain.

“Since [March 2020], infections in mink have been reported in Denmark, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the United States.”

2 .) Reinfection has begun. That means that the disease will continue ravaging the population until there are no more hosts to infect. Moreover, the disease will become a comorbid underlying illness to itself in each new infection.

Reinfection is possible after 6 months to 12 months, the mean average being 8 months but some patients have re-infected more quickly. The norm is to have a much worse course of the disease, and a higher rate of morbid outcomes—a higher infection fatality rate (IFR).


The epitome of government stupidity: frontliners not wearing respirators, and public coughing, yelling sputtering without masks. This image represents a drop-dead level of stupidity. Photo Credit: CBC YouTube Footage screen grab.
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag


Some concerns apply specifically to Canada.

The distances that separate Canadians in smaller centers across the country, from their main hospitals with COVID-19 Intensive Care Units (ICU) are a problem. The early symptoms of COVID-19 are mild. Grandpas and dads don’t think much of it until it slams them to the ground with 40 breathes per minute and oxygenation levels of 80% and lower. That’s serious. Sadly, that’s common for many patients on their own. Then it is too late to get to a hospital and they must fight the disease on their own. Those case have extremely high fatality rates and the current case fatality rate in Canada indicates that this is happening.

Donald Trump cultists

Erin O’Toole wants to galvanize voters in the ways of Donald Trump  with a blend of big-picture ideals poured into a pot of  belonging-stew, drizzled with melted fat trimmed off the Trump “ProudBoys” illegal militia appeals.

This stew with plenty of Trump Kool Aid to wash it down will be fed to a group of non-believers with social media blabber-blasts and video sound bytes aimed to reach niches of the electorate, like those finally forgiven in this club  (cult) for failing and dropping out of grade 7. They wish the pitchforks they carry would morph into the AR15s they pine for and an ‘open-carry-Canada‘.

If O’toole’s the rabble rousing, muck raking nonsense can get lower-hosers-packin into the streets screaming with banners, saying FTW and down with anti-fascism, O’Toole can tell his mom he is winning.

But is he? The civil disobedience encouragement of Trump has his followers falling sick  and some dead from COVID-19, or acting independently to encourage each other to boycott the Senate runoff election in Georgia where  Senator Kelly Loeffler is struggling against Democrat Reverend Raphael Warnock and Republican David Perdue defends his seat against a much better candidate,  Jon Ossoff. Trump hasn’t just shot himself in the feet, he’s blown his butt off but good. O’Toole is better at doing that.

Erin O’Toole  comes across as a gleeful clown with starry eyes and dreams of a landslide and a climb into the Irish throne left by Brian Mulroney. Won’t work. Mulroney had real conservatives like Erik Nielsen, Mike Wilson, Perrin Beatty, Barbara McDougall, and Don Mazankowski. O’Toole has Trumpsters which for the most part are quasi-fascists but without the discipline and structure of a fascist. Hmmm. Well, it’s a bizarre cult.

Canadians may be comforting themselves saying it cannot happen here but a careful read of the Canadian Federal Conservative leader raises an argument that the unorthodox style of disseminating untruths or in the alternative manner of saying, the inventing new facts playbook of Donald Trump, is being purloined by Erin O’Toole and company.

It’s strange that they do not have a part in fighting the coronavirus because every signed up Conservative in Canada is equally, if not more likely, to die by parading around without a mask, demanding to have giant crowded bar-be-que, in Nathan Philip Square, or just, everywhere, defiantly, as if they would do that without a pandemic.

Canada active cases and deaths over the past 15 days.

Canada active cases and deaths over the past 15 days. Active cases are patients who have yet to have an outcome, either death or recovery, from COVID-19.  Source: the Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19 in Singapore

 

The following data will update several times a day. January 18, 2022

Population: 38,585,269 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:2,801,13331,674 1.13% CFR2,435,778333,681
Estimate:14,369,81251,122 *0.36% IFR12,495,5411,711,784

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:31,6741.132,801,1332,435,778333,681
Quebec12,3641.54801,152734,64954,139
Ontario10,6281.11956,607851,36594,614
Alberta3,4030.75452,381376,61072,368
BC2,4900.83299,146257,67738,979
Manitoba1,4631.32110,59369,16939,961
SK9610.95101,53788,93411,642
First Nations5770.9461,53255,4995,456
NB1890.8223,17318,0684,916
Nova Scotia1170.3830,95022,8627,971
NL260.2013,0327,6705,336
Yukon150.552,7202,417288
NWT120.284,2332,9541,267
Nunavut40.331,195923268
PEI20.054,4012,4671,932
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals31,6741.132,801,1332,435,778333,681

Note: Above is region/county Health Unit reports from the province of Ontario and the individual units.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 14,369,812 (37.24% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.36%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-01-18 are estimated to be 51,731 Using estimated IFR of 0.36% which is far below global average IFR.

51,731 (0.36% IFR) is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

51122 Is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 51122 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District2,984210.7%2,399564
Brant County8,359440.5%7,3051,010
Chatham-Kent5,186440.8%4,364778
Durham Region46,6253960.8%39,6396,590
Eastern Ontario11,2751551.4%9,4231,697
Grey Bruce4,907360.7%4,453418
Haldimand-Norfolk5,742751.3%4,871796
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge5,267731.4%4,331863
Halton Region36,6232680.7%32,6843,671
Hamilton42,0204331.0%36,9134,674
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties5,161240.5%4,1181,019
Huron Perth4,549781.7%3,992479
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington7,967260.3%7,141800
Lambton County7,820961.2%6,6521,072
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District4,915671.4%4,266582
Middlesex-London26,2402701.0%22,8243,146
Niagara Region28,7154631.6%25,0553,197
North Bay Parry Sound District2,31590.4%2,002304
Northwestern2,681110.4%2,107563
Ottawa53,4986481.2%47,4465,404
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas9,1771281.4%8,093956
Peel Region155,3851,0500.7%142,18512,150
Peterborough County-City4,421390.9%3,715667
Porcupine3,788330.9%3,270485
Renfrew County And District2,348170.7%1,919412
Simcoe Muskoka District28,7012961.0%24,9133,492
Sudbury And District7,765680.9%6,1771,520
Thunder Bay District5,695721.3%4,790833
Timiskaming85450.6%707142
Toronto253,8433,8021.5%230,39019,651
Waterloo Region34,9263260.9%29,7704,830
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph15,9301310.8%14,3081,491
Windsor-Essex County31,5225211.7%27,8043,197
York Region89,4039031.0%81,3397,161
Totals:956607106281.11%85136594614
Last Updated: 2022-01-18 Time 05:12:06 GMT. Source: CSPaC

 

Wear a face shield. This type is best because it blocks a throughput of air from top to bottom.

Wearing a mask and a face shield to go shopping helps protect your mask and enables greater reusability of the mask. Photo Credit: Melissa Hemingway

Wear a mask

Wear a mask. Photo Credit: Melissa Hemingway

Author says, Wear A Mask

Author says, Stay Home. Wear A Mask. Photo Credit: Sharon Santiago
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag