Canada may only be as strong as its weakest links



As the pseudo-fascist cult of Donald Trump continues its spread into Canada, some very dire concerns arise. The potential for persistent infection and re-infection in Canada is real. Currently the trendlines are foreboding.

Losing the country as it is known is likely under the current circumstances.  Once hospitals become overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients, others with chronic and acute health needs are at mortal risk.

This problem can grow exponentially over time. An overtaxed health care system  will impact children and seniors first and then adult patients with cardiovascular issues, blood glucose issues, other chronic illness, and in particular, respiratory problems.


by Micheal John


Canada could meet its demise against COVID-19 in the not too far off future. There comes a point when hospitals are overwhelmed, and a rapid increase in infections leads to a more rapid increase in increasing cycles with a growing death rate as time passes.  COVID-19 is poised to take a horrendous toll and the ugliness of civil unrest and violence following in the vein of US origins, is in its incipient stages.

Canada’s weakest links.
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

 Canada Cumulative COVID 19 Cases Rise 200k in a month

Canada Cumulative COVID 19 Cases Rise 200k in a month. Source: Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19

Canada's projected cumulative cases for years end predicts a humanitarian disaster by Spring 2021

Canada’s projected cumulative cases for year’s end is part of a model that predicts a humanitarian disaster by Spring 2021. Source: Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19

Let’s talk about the pandemic first.

There are two worrisome facts that have scientists sweating a little. They apply everywhere.

1.) The disease is spreading into the wild through captive animals like the mink which escapes farms at a significant rate. Also, raccoons are candidates for infection. That’s not the bad part, it’s this: when migration of the SARS-CoV-2 occurs back to animals, the virus has been morphing into what scientists are calling the c+ sequence which when infecting back into humans cuts the efficacy of human vaccines.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), “Several animals that have been in contact with infected humans, such as minks, dogs, domestic cats, lions and tigers, have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.”

The European Centers for Disease Control’s report document published 12 November 2020, says that, “Since April 2020, when the first SARS-CoV-2 infection was reported in the Netherlands in a mink and subsequently in  a mink farm worker, it has been established that human-to-mink and mink-to-human transmission can occur.

In a subsequent chapter of the European report, the authors explain the findings that “When a virus switches host species, an increased mutation rate can be observed
due to the virus adapting to its new host. Mutations in the structural proteins of the virus, altering the antigenic properties of the strain, can lead to reduced effectiveness of the immune response if the immunity was acquired through infection by a strain, or a vaccine derived from a strain.

“Since [March 2020], infections in mink have been reported in Denmark, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the United States.”

2 .) Reinfection has begun. That means that the disease will continue ravaging the population until there are no more hosts to infect. Moreover, the disease will become a comorbid underlying illness to itself in each new infection.

Reinfection is possible after 6 months to 12 months, the mean average being 8 months but some patients have re-infected more quickly. The norm is to have a much worse course of the disease, and a higher rate of morbid outcomes—a higher infection fatality rate (IFR).


The epitome of government stupidity: frontliners not wearing respirators, and public coughing, yelling sputtering without masks. This image represents a drop-dead level of stupidity. Photo Credit: CBC YouTube Footage screen grab.
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag


Some concerns apply specifically to Canada.

The distances that separate Canadians in smaller centers across the country, from their main hospitals with COVID-19 Intensive Care Units (ICU) are a problem. The early symptoms of COVID-19 are mild. Grandpas and dads don’t think much of it until it slams them to the ground with 40 breathes per minute and oxygenation levels of 80% and lower. That’s serious. Sadly, that’s common for many patients on their own. Then it is too late to get to a hospital and they must fight the disease on their own. Those case have extremely high fatality rates and the current case fatality rate in Canada indicates that this is happening.

Donald Trump cultists

Erin O’Toole wants to galvanize voters in the ways of Donald Trump  with a blend of big-picture ideals poured into a pot of  belonging-stew, drizzled with melted fat trimmed off the Trump “ProudBoys” illegal militia appeals.

This stew with plenty of Trump Kool Aid to wash it down will be fed to a group of non-believers with social media blabber-blasts and video sound bytes aimed to reach niches of the electorate, like those finally forgiven in this club  (cult) for failing and dropping out of grade 7. They wish the pitchforks they carry would morph into the AR15s they pine for and an ‘open-carry-Canada‘.

If O’toole’s the rabble rousing, muck raking nonsense can get lower-hosers-packin into the streets screaming with banners, saying FTW and down with anti-fascism, O’Toole can tell his mom he is winning.

But is he? The civil disobedience encouragement of Trump has his followers falling sick  and some dead from COVID-19, or acting independently to encourage each other to boycott the Senate runoff election in Georgia where  Senator Kelly Loeffler is struggling against Democrat Reverend Raphael Warnock and Republican David Perdue defends his seat against a much better candidate,  Jon Ossoff. Trump hasn’t just shot himself in the feet, he’s blown his butt off but good. O’Toole is better at doing that.

Erin O’Toole  comes across as a gleeful clown with starry eyes and dreams of a landslide and a climb into the Irish throne left by Brian Mulroney. Won’t work. Mulroney had real conservatives like Erik Nielsen, Mike Wilson, Perrin Beatty, Barbara McDougall, and Don Mazankowski. O’Toole has Trumpsters which for the most part are quasi-fascists but without the discipline and structure of a fascist. Hmmm. Well, it’s a bizarre cult.

Canadians may be comforting themselves saying it cannot happen here but a careful read of the Canadian Federal Conservative leader raises an argument that the unorthodox style of disseminating untruths or in the alternative manner of saying, the inventing new facts playbook of Donald Trump, is being purloined by Erin O’Toole and company.

It’s strange that they do not have a part in fighting the coronavirus because every signed up Conservative in Canada is equally, if not more likely, to die by parading around without a mask, demanding to have giant crowded bar-be-que, in Nathan Philip Square, or just, everywhere, defiantly, as if they would do that without a pandemic.

Canada active cases and deaths over the past 15 days.

Canada active cases and deaths over the past 15 days. Active cases are patients who have yet to have an outcome, either death or recovery, from COVID-19.  Source: the Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19 in Singapore

 

The following data will update several times a day. July 1, 2022

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:3,954,26241,992 1.06% CFR3,868,34043,930
Estimate:21,867,06954,589 *0.25% IFR21,391,920242,933

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:41,9921.063,954,2623,868,34043,930
* Quebec15,5891.431,090,3111,062,60912,113
Ontario13,4781.001,342,7091,314,31414,917
Alberta4,6210.78588,691577,5306,540
BC3,7471.00374,594366,6854,162
Manitoba2,0431.40145,498141,8391,616
Sask1,3951.00138,992136,0531,544
First Nations7420.67110,651108,6801,229
NB4210.6366,34565,187737
Nova Scotia4210.4299,51497,9871,106
NL1870.4046,64745,942518
* PEI350.0940,80640,318453
Yukon260.584,4764,40050
* NWT220.1812,13511,978135
Nunavut70.203,5313,48539
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals41,9921.063,954,2623,868,34043,930

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,867,069 (56.44% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-07-01 are estimated to be 54,668 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,668 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54589 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54589 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District8,619580.7%8,48180
Brant County11,922830.7%11,76673
Chatham-Kent8,850941.1%8,70551
Hamilton59,3185741.0%58,297447
Ottawa75,0478201.1%73,539688
Durham Region63,3244960.8%62,469359
Eastern Ontario16,1592191.4%15,85387
Grey Bruce8,905690.8%8,80036
Haldimand-Norfolk8,848840.9%8,72044
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge9,5471111.2%9,35977
Halton Region49,8943270.7%49,230337
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties10,447630.6%10,29589
Huron Perth7,4551111.5%7,31232
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington17,653600.3%17,430163
Lambton County11,9451461.2%11,75346
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District9,6591061.1%9,411142
Middlesex-London38,7144071.1%38,053254
Niagara Region41,6955491.3%40,944202
North Bay Parry Sound District6,163440.7%6,07346
Northwestern9,831220.2%9,478331
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas14,0531691.2%13,79985
Peel Region187,0891,3620.7%184,872855
Peterborough County-City7,655811.1%7,51361
Porcupine7,461690.9%7,33953
Renfrew County And District4,854511.1%4,76637
Simcoe Muskoka District46,8464380.9%46,116292
Sudbury And District15,6191511.0%15,331137
Thunder Bay District13,027980.8%12,764165
Timiskaming1,989241.2%1,9596
Toronto326,4594,2731.3%319,9742,212
Waterloo Region46,9804230.9%46,287270
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph22,5521620.7%22,254136
Windsor-Essex County44,3606351.4%43,533192
York Region113,4551,0420.9%111,529884
Last Updated: 2022-07-01 Time 15:23:28 GMT. Source: CSPaC

 

Wear a face shield. This type is best because it blocks a throughput of air from top to bottom.

Wearing a mask and a face shield to go shopping helps protect your mask and enables greater reusability of the mask. Photo Credit: Melissa Hemingway

Wear a mask

Wear a mask. Photo Credit: Melissa Hemingway

Author says, Wear A Mask

Author says, Stay Home. Wear A Mask. Photo Credit: Sharon Santiago
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag