America is facing a significant humanitarian disaster



“CNN’s Dr. Sanjay Gupta MD whom we met in 2003 in Iraq, while he was working for CNN, is still working for CNN, but despite what we all saw in Iraq during that 2003-2011 war, he says today, ‘this is the worst humanitarian disaster I have seen in my career‘,” says RINJ Foundation Dr. Buni who is presently working in the Deir Ezzor region of Syria.


by Sharon Santiago, Katie Alsop  and Micheal John


The Cause of America's Humanitarian Disaster

The Cause of America’s Humanitarian Disaster is recklessness, a doubting Thomas attitude and malignant leadership. The damage caused by these three factors is horrendous. 
Original Photo Credit: Twitter
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

Today,  clinicians know that there is a shift in the population contracting COVID-19 toward those who are more resilient. Fewer of those patients will die because they are more resilient and because the treatments are improving. There is no cure for COVID-19, however. Higher than most diseases the average person encounters, this one has a big chance of killing the infected.

  • What that means is that the most vulnerable people are hiding from the SARS2 virus, and by that we mean that the most vulnerable seniors are following public health guidelines, or they are dead.
  • Because the most vulnerable are either dead or better hidden from the virus, the death rate some people claim has changed.
  • Almost all the scientific data suggests that mankind will not know the infection fatality rate (IFR) until the pandemic is over. It also suggests that the more resilient patients lie within a certain age group.
  • There’s one more thing. Treatment. Using a ventilator is statistically and by common sense, contraindicated in very old, very sick patients.
  • In several locations around the world, The Nurses Without Borders report that “the use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy (HFNC) has cut the death rate as compared to ventilators.”

Hence that is the clinical perspective. The scientific perspective is well set out in studies published in the Lancet as per the chart below.

Table Summary estimates of cases of COVID-19 and COVID-19-related
deaths in New York City, NY, USA for the period 1 March to 6 June 2020, by
age group. Source: Lancet “Estimating the infection-fatality risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City during the spring 2020 pandemic wave: a model-based analysis”

Confirmed cases Confirmed and probable deaths Est cumulative infection rate Estimated fatality risk
<25 years 16,332 45 8.56% (5.66–17.5) 0.00972% (0.00405–0.0154)
25–44 years 64,753 734 22.6% (16.6–31.2) 0.116% (0.0729–0.148)
45–64 years 74,798 4732 22.7% (18.0–29.2) 0.939% (0.729–1.19)
65–74 years 25,460 5181 15.0% (11.4–21.6) 4.87% (3.37–6.89)
=75 years 24,296 10,755 12.8% (9.92–18.6) 14.2% (10.2–18.1)
Overall 205,639 21,447 17.2% (12.9–25.1) 1.39% (1.04–1.77)

This week the USA will hit 12 million COVID-19 cases and is on target to reach the worst predictions of the Civil Society Partners for Human Solidarity against COVID-19. See bottom-most graph.

Click any graph to enlarge and read.

COVID-19 Cases up in the millions now.

Click to enlarge and read. This week the USA will hit 12 million cases and is on target to reach the worst predictions of the Civil Society Partners for Human Solidarity against COVID-19. See bottom most graph. Up in the millions now. Source  Civil Society Partners for Human Solidarity against COVID-19

Americans are being told that the death rate is declining. But we don’t know that. Infection fatality rates (IFR) are revealed when the pandemic ends.

“What we do know is that SARS2 killed off our oldest, most vulnerable family members. Many families are missing moms, dads, and  grandparents at the dinner table. The numbers are a colossal and heart rending tragedy,” says nurse practitioner Michele Francis, who is fighting COVID-19 in a Venezuela hospital.


This changes perspectives but not the facts. Younger more resilient patients seem to be infected more than the elders, of late.


SARS-CoV-2 is a ferocious, murderous pathogen that is currently and statistically the most dangerous killer today for people who have made health-risk mistakes in their lives.

What mistakes?

Boozing; smoking; narcotics abuse; poor diet control; and failing to treat chronic health issues like diabetes, obesity, alcoholism, drug addiction, hypertensive heart disease and a long list of others.

Failing to treat means that for whatever reason including funds, the patient has not been taking their prescribed chronic health issue medications. They are vulnerable and will have a higher than normal probability of contracting the disease and a higher than normal probability of death.

“COVID-19 has no forgiveness and will exploit every health-risk mistake an American patient or any patient anywhere has ever made in their lives,” warns nurse Francis.

FPMag asked biostatistician Fred Harris with the Civil Society Partners for Pandemic Solidarity, for some help, in lay terms, so that FPMag can explain to American and other readers around the world, how awful this disease has become and how simple the techniques are for beating this virus by denying it one more host.

Harris reacted saying that people should rely on institutional advice from the USA Centers for Disease Control, Public Health Canada, Harvard University, the Mayo Clinic, the World Health Organization,  and probably the best and most extensive, consistent guidance comes from the European Union. Every other institution has been all over the map with disagreements about how the disease is transmitted; about wearings masks; about what kind of mask to wear.

FPMag sources say that people should wear an N-95 mask or failing that, wear a mask of at least three layers of unique weave fabric. More would be better. “Wearing a single layer cloth mask or a medical spit barrier will not protect the wearer from airborne transmission of the SARS2 virus,” say FPMag’s lawyers, “and it is irresponsible to tell people to wear something that will not protect themselves.”

“Surgical masks and cloth masks do not offer protection from inhaling particles or pathogens in the air, for that, you need to turn to respirators,” says a report published in the Lancet Medical Journal

In the USA, federal standards regulate what can be marketed as a respirator, a type of facemask that, in addition to providing a physical barrier between the mouth and nose and external elements, actively filters particles from the air.

There are several standards, the most common of which is the N95.

A report for  the Lancet sets out that, “These types of respirators are certified by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) and recommended by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They filter out 95% airborne particles, from those smaller than 1 µm to those larger than 100 µm. Filtering facepiece respirators come in several types, from disposable surgical masks to the kind of plastic respirators often used in industrial settings that use cartridges or canisters which draw harmful gases out of the air as well as particles and pathogens (fibrous respirators do not protect against gases). While paper surgical masks and surgical mask respirators are very similar in appearance, only those certified as respirators offer protection from fine particles and pathogens,”

Many respirators are also electrostatically charged and cause the fibres to capture oppositely charged particles, which is one reason they should not be cleaned for reuse with alcohol. Sunlight or ultraviolet-C light are best although atomized hydrogen peroxide works without damaging the mask but is very dangerous for the untrained  lay person.

According to experts at the Mayo Clinic, “An N95 mask offers more protection than a surgical mask does because it can filter out both large and small particles when the wearer inhales. As the name indicates, the mask is designed to block 95% of very small particles. Some N95 masks have valves that make them easier to breathe through. With this type of mask, unfiltered air is released when the wearer exhales.

Warning: “Some N95 masks, and even some cloth masks, have one-way valves that make them easier to breathe through. But because the valve releases unfiltered air when the wearer breathes out, this type of mask doesn’t prevent the wearer from spreading the virus. For this reason, some places have banned them.” (Citing Mayo Clinic)


The following graphs are intended to illustrate what people all around the world want to tell America while they realize the facts for themselves, “America is facing a significant humanitarian crisis”.


According to Harris, “Statistics on confirmed COVID-19 deaths – for which several organizations such as the WHOECDC, Civil Society Partners, and Johns Hopkins University are collated data for all countries, but there is no single source of data on excess mortality.”

“This is a major problem for many reasons,” notes the biostatistician.  “It is for one thing a way to validate published numbers which in some cases are suspect.”

“The published confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the United States,” he explains, “do not nearly compare to the actual excess deaths. In other words, the published numbers are a deliberate lie of a government that months ago took data management away from scientists and gave it to political actors. In the alternative the numbers represent a huge mistake which the United States has been making over and over again with the same inaccurate result that has not been corrected.”

“The US President Donald Trump has said to a well known journalist, Bob Woodward,  that he lied because he did not want to panic the American people. But the truth would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives, based on the data that is available.”

Here are the excess deaths in the United States for the past three weeks.

Click any graph to enlarge and read.

Excess deaths in America

Actual USA COVID-19 Deaths based on Daily Excess Deaths. Source: CDC and Civil Society Partners for Human Solidarity against COVID-19
Note: Daily increases in excess deaths will differ from Reported Case Fatality numbers because the reporting times are different, especially during weekends when most medical examiners’ full staffs are not working. Reports can accumulate for a few days, even, then submitted. Right now it is a difficult task. Many deceased are placed in refrigerated trailers outside  hospitals, waiting to be processed. Many people die at home, never having been tested and never seeing the inside of a hospital. Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

Comparison of Cumulative Cases, America versus the world.

U.S.A. (pop. 332,803,287)

  • CoV19 Reported Cases: 88,626,717
  • Current Reported Deaths:(CFR: 1.18%): 1,035,598 CSPaC.net estimated actual: 1,306,663
  • Cured: 84,708,599
  • Beta experimental: All time reported + unreported asymptomatic people maybe not sick, not immune, but possibly infectious and including the many people who have had several mild or asymptomatic infections: 483,949,290.02
  • 145.42% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (483,949,290.02) human infections, some of which may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.18% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 1,306,663 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is estimating.
Rest of the world excluding USA.
  • CoV19 Cases: 461,702,585
  • Deaths: 5,337,963 | 1.16%
  • Cured: 442,817,813
  • Reported + estimated all unreported 3,043,321,040

Note: Total statistics for the United States do not include these offshore territories. The US Military is included as if it is an offshore territory, not reported as continental USA data but as USA overall totals and included in world totals. FPMag evaluates these separately for many reasons.

TerritoryCasesDeathsRecovered
Continental US87,513,4341,035,598 | 1.18%83,996,871
+US Military661,831688 | 0.1%628,967
+Guam51,588371 | 0.7%50,622
+Puerto Rico 360,8134,544 | 1.26%329,886
+US Virgin Islands20,878118 | 0.6%20,550
+Northern Mariana Islands11,75935 | 0.3%11,589
+American Samoa6,41431 | 0.5%5,958
Totals88,626,7171,041,35484,708,599

The American Epicenter including ALL Territories has 17.51 % of global 'active' cases (2,876,764 USA (incl territories) / 16,429,329 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Abundant proof that vaccines are working, an observation derived from unrelated data analysis.

As the epicenter we look at continental USA together with US territories and without. The significant decline in Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the continental United States particularly, during 2 0 2 1, since vaccines became available, is believed to be due to vaccination rates and is abundant proof that the vaccines are working.

In order to avoid letting countries that refuse to report the sum of case recoveries, thus skewing global calculations, Burundi, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Britain, most provinces of Canada, Ecuador, FaeroeIslands, Falklands, Finland, France, French Polynesia, Hong Kong, Iceland, Mongolia, Laos, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Ukraine, South Korea, Tunisia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Spain and Sweden 'recoveries' are estimated based on the current reported global recoveries as a percentage of all cases. (([reported recoveries]) divide (550,329,302 [Global Reported Sum of All Cases] less 29,905,095 [France Sum of Cases] less 901,739 [Ecuador Sum of Cases] less 12,734,038 [Spain Sum of Cases] less 8,171,396 [Netherlands Sum of Cases] less 2,515,769 [Sweden Sum of Cases] less 3,617,629 [Peru Sum of Cases])) = 96% a coefficient which is then adjusted according to the number of cases in the past 30 days and the new coefficient is applied to the sum of each of these nation's cumulative cases to estimate the missing recoveries data. In the case of France some additional hospital-sourced recovery data is factored.

Reported:
All USASum of CasesDeathsRecoveredActive
Continental USA87,513,4341,035,59883,996,8712,480,965
USA+territories88,626,7171,041,35484,708,599 2,876,764
Estimated:



USA+territories483,949,290.021,306,663468,438,55214,211,063

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

See also IHME Estimates for America.

The following graph compares the United States to more than thirty other nations, the ones having the highest number of infections in the world, one of which has a population greater than 1.3 billion, India, which has the second largest number of cumulative cases  to the United States which has one quarter of India’s population.

Click any graph to enlarge and read.

America in comparison to other countries cumulative cases.

America in comparison to other countries’ cumulative cases.

“The following graph shows one month of excess deaths in America. The growth angle is alarming,” says Harris.

Click any graph to enlarge and read.

Graph depicting excess deaths in America

Graph visually depicting excess deaths in America

Below is a simple graph that explains how deaths resulting from dramatic rises in case counts follows about a month later.

Lead and lag ratio if current cases to future deaths.

The death rate in America from COVID-19 is not declining. It remains constant per demographic profile. When older people are infected the death rate is higher. When people without comorbid illness are infected, the death rate is lower. Today Americans are seeing the death rate for a period of time when daily infections were very low. The deaths (of about 2.3%) of the current spikes in infections will be seen starting in a month. Look at this graph carefully.

 

Graphed Projections from the University of Washington (IHME) based on US Government reported deaths. “We are showing the same projections,” said Civil Society Team lead.

Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) have released their new numbers, updating its COVID-19 death toll forecast through Feb. 1, 2021, in the United States.  The model shows that nearly 2,900 deaths daily by the end of December, will bring the total deaths to about 502,854 by the end of January if mask wearing continues to ease.  Source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend 

“This graph below shares publicly reported death data and forecasts roughly 800,000 reported deaths which will likely translate to about one million excess deaths by the beginning of April 2021 if the 2020 patterns continue,” says Harris.

Click any graph to enlarge and read.

University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicts 500,000 reported case fatalities (CFR) by February 2021. Civil Society Partners predict 580,000 of excess deaths that are most likely caused by COVID-19 disease and closer to what will eventually be revealed as Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)

University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicts 500,000 reported case fatalities (CFR) by February 2021. Civil Society Partners predict 580,000 of excess deaths that are most likely caused by COVID-19 disease and closer to what will eventually be revealed as Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)

“Graph below Based on Actual and Calculated Excess Deaths Data. This information has been on target for four months and published every day. That is worrisome and indicates that mitigation efforts may not accomplish too much unless implemented immediately. Waiting until 20 January 2021 to start mitigation efforts will kill a few hundred thousand Americans. And that is my message,” says biostatistician Fred Harris

Note: “This graph includes mortality events wherein for example a patient with a comorbid chronic lung disease died after the condition was exacerbated by a COVID-19 infection. In any context the longstanding Civil Society forecast model corroborates 100% the data from University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)”

Click any graph to enlarge and read.

America, this is where you are going

One million excess deaths in this graphs is understated to 800,000 in the publicly reported-case/deaths data. America, this is where you are going. Actual excess deaths in the United States and forecast to Spring 2021 Source: Civil Society Partners for COVID-19 Solidarity https://nwob.org/ncov/
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag