EU a competent polycentric player. Processing change in response to American threat.
A time of awakening. EU, not a geopolitical and strategic rival to the United States, but a polycentric player.
According to FPMag insider sources, women who are members of a global women’s civil society group, many of them working day jobs in relatively senior positions in the European Union have been indicating that following European dissent, a change is afoot.
For much of 2019, FPMag has been told that secret meetings were taking place in Europe to cope with a substantial paradigm shift in Europe’s security status both in terms of physical security and also its economic security. “The change is adaptive,” says one such strategic planner who like the others speaks on condition of anonymity owing to the sensitive and preliminary nature of talks.
“It’s not the end of the transatlantic relationship;” she says, “it’s a shift following prolific European neutral-thinking toward America. Almost unanimous mistrust can be summarized as Europeans see America less as a friend and more as a significant security threat. Hence Europeans are responding to the loss of a reliable ally by filling in its own security gaps and halting-then-reversing American military expansion in Europe.”
by Micheal John
On 2 September 2020 it will have been 75 years since WWII ended. The biggest change since then has yet to come.
This “change”, say informed sources close to the decision-making processes in three countries began following a tumultuous 2018 wherein the US withdrew from the Paris climate agreement and axed the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) setting backwards high-value diplomatic and political negotiations. Sadly this smashed a good result ending a few years of comfortable and peaceful coexistence with Iran’s domestically oppressive Islamic Regime.
Today, analysts and planners in several European Union nations are working at implementing the process of change.
“This has many people working very hard with considerable wariness of the consequences of a misstep,” said FPMag‘s source in Germany.
The picture and its story: A time of Awakening
Zweiter Tag des G7-Gipfels in Kanada: spontane Beratung am Rande der offiziellen Tagesordnung. — (Translation: Day two of the G7 summit in Canada: spontaneous meeting between two working sessions.) Photo Credit: Angela Merkel Instagram. Photo Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag
On 3 December 1989 the Cold War technically finished when Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev met with US president George H. Bush aboard a Soviet ship docked at Malta’s Marsaxlokk harbour and agreed that it was over.
With the concomitant ending of the Soviet Union, the United States was the self-anointed victor. The enormous global military presence that had been used to counter the Soviet Union was subsequently redirected to bully much of the world, say some analysts.
“That must change,” says a source in Belgium.
Europe will get closer to Russia if that is Russia’s will. Europe cannot trust America.
In the past three years, US President Donald Trump enlightened the world exposing the true feelings in America.
Racism, misogyny and hegemony are the key factors which have overshadowed relationships with Europe for some time.
“Mr. Trump did not write these anti-EU policies, he has merely revealed the prevalent thinking among Americans who elected him. Nevertheless the White House antipathy toward Europe has been reckless,” says an analyst source in France FPMag spoke to on condition of anonymity.
In February 2017, Donald Tusk, the European Council President wrote to the European Union’s individual state leaders to say that the threats to Europe included “worrying declarations by the new American [Trump] administration,”plus an assertive China, an aggressive Russia and the threat of “radical Islam.”
“He should have added ‘racism’,” said the French analyst.
Studies show unanimous mistrust of America among many EU Nations
To this “reckless” White House antipathy toward Europe there is a corresponding mistrust of America in Europe that has been evident as a growing phenomenon. Europeans say they do not trust America.
Media reports have circulated in the third quarter of 2019 about a recently published study on European attitudes toward America. The report by The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)indicates:
- European voters believe that there is a growing case for a more coherent and effective EU foreign policy in a dangerous, competitive world.
- They want to see the European Union come of age as a geopolitical actor and chart its own course.
- But policymakers will have to earn the right to enhance the EU’s foreign policy power, by producing tangible results and heeding the messages voters have sent them.
- Most EU citizens believe that they are living in an EU in which they can no longer rely on the US security guarantee, and that the enlargement process should be halted.
- They believe that it is crucial to address existential challenges – such as climate change and migration – at the European level.
- The new leadership of the EU’s institutions should allow these political impulses to guide their approach to foreign affairs.
Changing European attitude may be difficult but was rivalry about American Propaganda or did Russia truly offend EU?
Commenting on the anger in the West over Russia selling its S-300 “air-attack-defence system to Iran” and selling its S-400 system to Turkey,FPMag‘s analyst source in France said, “Why should a country be criticized about where it buys or sells its prophylactics? Every nation’s population needs the best protection it can afford no matter where it comes from.”
European leaders are changing their thinking.
For example, Europe thinks it too has a legitimate mission to send troops to the Middle East.
The role that Russia plays currently is a quietly favoured roll. Russia has done a good job in Syria.
“Syria must remain intact, and Russia has been getting that done despite various interference,” says the Belgium analyst. “This is another example of the Kremlin’s loyalty to its nation-state allies, even if it must ‘hold its nose‘ in the process,” she added.
“Putin’s policies will likely remain, in Russia, no matter what the future holds should he decide to retire. That means stability is very likely. Regardless of economic ups and downs, Russia will remain strong and open for business,” says EU economic analyst.
“Russia could be a good partner for business and also a good security partner for Europe,” she continues.
“But there is considerable and measurable resistance to that concept on the eastern edge of Europe. Poland strongly disagrees, for example. Strong commitments may be needed from Russia, if willing, to at least partially assuage doubts in the Eastern nations.”
Unbiased observers see Russia as a formidable rival, but as even recent history has indicated, and as sources suggest, Russia is a loyal ally to those who choose to work closely with the Kremlin or even those with infrequent projects is treated to sage advice and comforting support as committed friends, as in the case of North Korea.
That reflects Putin’s personal history: a formidable rival but a very loyal friend. History backs that up. Russia plays dirty against its foes. Russia plays fair in favour of its allies.
“Those countries resisting working with Russia are being told there is ‘no choice but to do that’. It is the right thing to do—to all get along as neighbouring states. It’s a whole new paradigm and it should be embraced with new values—values we must teach despite past-propaganda from the rivalling American and Russian sides,” says the analyst from France.
Russia is now the 4th largest trading partner of the EU for trade in goods, representing 6.4% of overall EU trade. Russia is also the 4th export destination of EU goods (€85.3 billion in 2018) and the 3rd largest source of goods imports (€168.3 billion in 2018). [May 30, 2019] — Citing: The European Union and the Russian Federation – EEAS
Fearing a Racist Europe with a powerful military.
One analyst FPMag interviewed said she is sensing some fear of significant danger in the future. “The worst fear of the planners is public opinion,” she said. “People in Europe are becoming more and more racist. Anti Semitism is also a big problem.”
“Europeans are torn by Russian propaganda against Israel and the disruptive narrative from Washington directly opposing European Union leadership thinking. Additionally the United Nations has a penchant for taking Iran and Hamas sides against Israel in the Palestinian crisis,” she added. “Both sides of that dispute must be measured with uncluttered neutrality.”
The New Combined European Armed Forces
Many serious analysts and planners foresee a United European Army, Air Force and Navy with a singular administration. This will either merge aspects of NATO or simply end NATO, but because of its excellent leadership may include key management and employees.
“Our polling confirms that Trump is toxic in Europe, and that this is feeding into distrust of the U.S. Security Guarantee,” says Susi Dennison, director of the European Power programme at ECFR.
“The fact that Europeans are split on whether defence resources should go to the EU or NATO suggests that they no longer have the confidence in the alliance they once had,” said Dennison.
Europe wants to avoid being dependent on America which control has been the aim of the USA for decades.
“America is a threat to Europe and not an ally,” said one well-placed senior security analyst in Washington DC who asks for anonymity despite the fact that these particular discussion points were previously leaked to the public from both sides.
Europe may be emerging as a coalescing global model for human development, but “the road has bumps” say planners.
“With its human rights priority; free and unfettered press guaranty; religious and ethnic pluralism a right; strong global values; and human development contributions, the United States sees the European Union as a bastion of liberalism [“socialism” say others] that was formed for the sole purpose of competing in global trade Against america,” says the German analyst.
That European Union is comprised of Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and for now, the United Kingdom.
In April of this year, speaking to an academic institute in Moscow that is closely aligned to his department’s diplomatic sphere, and to which he is an academia-chosen patron, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov cautioned that, “Unfortunately, our Western partners led by the United States do not want to agree on common approaches to solving problems.”
Minister Lavrov suggested that there is an incipient transfer of global power from West to East.
Dr. Lavrov seemed to imply in his speech that the failure of Western dominance lay in the folly of an outdated paradigm in which, as he put it, the West struggles to “preserve its centuries-old domination in world affairs despite objective trends in forming a polycentric world order.”
Europe might be tuned to Lavrov’s sage advice.