One-in-Twenty



Die

Think ‘one-in-twenty’ because this is why, women medical experts, mothers too,  said since January, “wear an N95 mask”.

As the novel coronavirus disease continues to spread, the higher the numbers go, the more the numbers grow. This weekend the global pandemic hit ten million cases and within two days was another 200,000 cases higher for 232 countries/territories heading for the next additional million.

In a manner of speaking, this article is a public service piece that shares the news about two things: the ten million SARS-CoV-2 infections and the “One-in-Twenty” reality that the 10 million cases have taught the world. Read on, please.


by Melissa Hemingway


“It’s an exponential algorithm. Now After hitting 10 million infections the numbers have begun to grow at a daily 9% or more and deaths will rise to colossal levels,” says Fred Harris, a computer scientist.

When will mankind say, “No More!”.

For every 20 new cases, one person will die. Most academics agree that the average death rate among reported confirmed cases is about 5%. But those case numbers are very low compared to the algorithm counts of the totals including minor and asymptomatic cases.
January 20, 2022

253 Locales report 339,035,374 COVID-19 cases of which there are 56,775,974 active cases, therefore 276,658,123 recoveries and 5,601,277 fatalities.

GMT 2022-01-20 01:51

Data reported should be in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in each locale as their governments report daily or from time to time. All data researched and published by The RINJ Foundation and partners in CSPaC.

©The RINJ Foundation 2020-2022-01-20T01:51:09Z #Singapore-SK-HUK-77
RINJ is with Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19.

SARS2 Update 2022-01-20 01:51 GMT

  • Global Population: 7,871,660,945
  • 253 Regions reported 339,035,374 cases
  • 56,775,974 cases active
  • 5,601,277 people reported killed by COVID-19
  • 1.65% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
  • 276,658,123 survived COVID-19
Beta Technology Global Estimates
  • 22.10% of all humans (1,739,251,468) have been infected
  • 0.74% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
    (influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
  • 12,821,042 Total deaths (estimated actual) including errors, unexpected deaths with pneumonia indications with no history, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.
USA (69,459,010)
  • 105.99% of the USA may have been infected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (352,361,442.33) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.27% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.28% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 986,612 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is higher than what CSPaC is showing.
  • The American Epicenter has 43.82 % of global 'active' cases (24,877,852 USA / 56,775,974 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Below: CSPAC estimated 2022-01-20 01:43 GMT COVID-19 data for India.

EPICENTER-2: India (38,216,399)

Reported*Cases*Deaths*CFR*Recovered
India38,216,399487,7191.3%35,796,422
*Reported by India but understated.

Note: India's reported death sum and cured data are widely seen among epidemiologists and biostatisticians as unreliable. For example, 2,682,406 is CSPAC estimated sum of deaths while India reports 487,719, creating the largest discepency in the world. India might only report hospital tested cases. Sources among hundreds of nurses and other medical practitioners provide a picture that in summary concludes most cases never present in a hospital especially in northern provinces where health care is less available and utilization is low anyway because of poverty, hence most people die at home in India. This theory could explain discrepancies between reported data and algorithmic estimates.

LocaleCasesDeathsActive
India reported:38,216,399487,7191,932,258
India estimates:196,050,1272,682,4069,732,076

Data collected and reported by: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19

U.S.A. (pop. 332,433,842)

  • CoV19 Reported Cases: 69,459,010
  • Current Reported Deaths:(CFR: 1.27%): 875,716 Estimated actual: 986,612
  • Cured: 43,700,835
  • Beta experimental: All time reported + unreported asymptomatic people maybe not sick, not immune, but possibly infectious and including the many people who have had several mild or asymptomatic infections: 352,361,442.33
  • 105.99% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (352,361,442.33) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.27% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.28% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 986,612 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is higher than what CSPaC is estimating.
Rest of the world excluding USA.
  • CoV19 Cases: 269,576,364
  • Deaths: 4,725,561 | 1.65%
  • Cured: 232,957,288
  • Reported + estimated all unreported 1,739,251,468

Note: Total statistics for the United States do not include these offshore territories. The US Military is included as if it is an offshore territory, not reported as continental USA data but as USA overall totals and included in world totals. FPMag evaluates these separately for many reasons.

TerritoryCasesDeathsRecovered
Continental US68,686,441875,716 | 1.27%43,111,678
+US Military490,202660 | 0.1%422,164
+Guam22,479274 | 1.2%19,271
+Puerto Rico 242,9723,563 | 1.47%187,959
+US Virgin Islands13,11090 | 0.7%11,060
+Northern Mariana Islands3,80220 | 0.5%3,317
+American Samoa40 | %4
Totals69,459,010880,32343,700,835

The American Epicenter including ALL Territories has 43.82 % of global 'active' cases (24,877,852 USA (incl territories) / 56,775,974 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Abundant proof that vaccines are working, an observation derived from unrelated data analysis.

As the epicenter we look at continental USA together with US territories and without. The declining CFR in the continental United States is believed to be due to vaccination rates and is abundant proof that the vaccines are working.

In order to avoid letting countries that refuse to report the sum of case recoveries, thus skewing global calculations, Ecuador, France, Netherlands, Peru, Puerto Rico, Spain and Sweden 'recoveries' are estimated based on the current reported global recoveries as a percentage of all cases. (([reported recoveries]) divide (339,035,374 [Global Reported Sum of All Cases] less 14,780,714 [France Sum of Cases] less 629,507 [Ecuador Sum of Cases] less 8,676,916 [Spain Sum of Cases] less 3,680,896 [Netherlands Sum of Cases] less 1,700,336 [Sweden Sum of Cases] less 2,668,224 [Peru Sum of Cases])) = 82% a coefficient which is then adjusted according to the number of cases in the past 30 days and the new coefficient is applied to the sum of each of these nation's cumulative cases to estimate the missing recoveries data. In the case of France some additional hospital-sourced recovery data is factored.

Reported:
All USASum of CasesDeathsRecoveredActive
Continental USA68,686,441875,71643,111,67824,699,047
USA+territories69,459,010880,32343,700,83524,877,852
Estimated:



USA+territories352,361,442.33986,612224,185,284127,202,362

See also IHME Estimates for America.


Frontliner experiences are instructive

Fighting the coronavirus in Venezuela, nurse Michele Francis who heads up three clinics and a small hospital in the Amazon Basin says it’s “like trying to hold back a breaking damn with one hand”.

“What the mainstream media is only just now picking up is that for each thirty to forty thousand cases per day, an average of 5% will begin to die in roughly 28 days. For every twenty new cases, one person will die.”

“That will change eventually,” she added. ” When the pandemic is over, the numbers may be exact but for now, it is likely true that the disease is roughly three times more deadly than influenza. That’s still only an educated guess. That’s all there can be for now.

Stay home. Wear an N-95 mask to get groceries. SARS-CoV-2 is in the air.

Look who is leading the world in COVID-19 Infections.

Click the image to enlarge and read the labels. Look who is leading the world in COVID-19 Infections.The top three don’t wear masks. Photo Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag


 

“People need to wear an N95 mask, like we do here in Taiwan,” says a nurse who spent the first quarter of the year in Wuhan.  Kathy Poon says that the people of Taiwan have maintained good health by protecting their respiratory systems with N95 masks.

Taiwan has been delivering masks to many countries as part of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s global solidarity effort.

Mainland China and Russia also have been delivering enormous quantities of personal protective equipment as part of the global solidarity effort in cooperation with the World Health Organization.

Every number has a face,

Every number has a face.
File Photo. Photo Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

“We have never wavered on this. COVID-19 is a respiratory system illness and each person must protect their respiratory system—their throat, nose and lungs. The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-29 will not hang around there, it will infect cells in a person’s body that have the ACE2 receptor in the liver, kidneys, intestines, heart and lungs and then some more,” instructs nurse Poon who lectures wisely.

“Even a very young patient may recover from the first bout of the disease’s worst symptoms only to die weeks later in what is called a cytokine storm.”

No shame in wearing a protective mask.

One senior told us that he loves wearing a mask. Because of the pandemic quarantine he has not been able to get to the dentist for an adjustment of his dentures. He says that with a mask on his face, he can comfortably go “without dentures and nobody’s the wiser.”

“We have argued and clashed with the World Health Organization and many male-run governments around the world on the topic of masks,” says Katie Alsop of The RINJ Foundation.

Almost all of the staff of FPMag are medical practitioners and the opinions on this topic were worth the straw poll.

Sharon Santiago says that “the consensus among everyone is that we’ll wear a mask an extra day or two if that means readers will have a good mask to protect their respiratory systems and never cross the threshold of the hospital with COVID-19.”

She offered this advice: “Wear the mask that protects your respiratory system. Learn how to do this and fit check the device before you leave home. Practice wearing the mask in a safe environment at home first.”

And, as often as possible, FPMag shares some good advice from sisters in Singapore on how to wear and fit-test an N-95 mask.

Wear a mask to avoid being the “One-In-Twenty”.

 Here is how to wear and fit-test  your N95 respirator mask, especially when you have been in high risk areas. Most commonly used for Influenza prevention, these masks are effective according to the CDC in helping to prevent the spread of Flu, swine flu and avian flu transmission from person to person.  N95 masks are designed to fit over the nose and mouth of the wearer, and properly fitted can provide excellent protection for you and from you. 

Wash your hands for at least 20 seconds in a good soap  before and after touching your mask. Using a hand sanitizer is an acceptable alternative if done correctly.

Hand Sanitizer Procedure

1. Apply enough sanitizer to completely cover both hands.
2. Rub hands together, palm to palm.
3. Rub back of each hand with palm of other hand.
4. Spread sanitizer over and under fingernails
5. Spread sanitizer between fingers
6. Keep rubbing hands together until they are dry. Do not dry
with a towel

Stay safe from Influenza, COVID-19 and Pollution. Don’t become a

“One-In-Twenty”

“The flu virus is carried from infected patient to non-infected person in droplets of their excretions from sneezing and coughing, much like COVID-19. Both are respiratory viruses and both have a high morbidity.”

“Expelled moisture particles from human respiratory systems are as much as 5 microns or larger in size.

“When an infected person wears an N95 respirator, the respirator can be effective as a barrier preventing infectious material from leaving the patient’s body, and when worn by healthy individuals in a crowded place, it prevents inhalation of other persons’ material.

“Wearing a mask is an excellent barrier against the user rubbing or touching their mouth or nose, which has a very high risk factor. But keep your hands off the front of the mask.

“An N95 mask can substantially reduce the risk of receiving or transmitting a disease,” notes one vendor of N95 masks.


More Learning. “You don’t need the Most Expensive N95 Models but these are nice,” says Nurse Francis.


Indicated for most people, here is the 1860-N95 which works for street-wear 1860S N95 Particulate Respirator Spec Sheet


 

Regardless of diseases, wear an N95 mask in cities where pollution is above an index of 12µg/m³. Sadly, that is most places on Earth.

The RINJ Foundation is urging people to wear an N95 mask in cities where pollution is above an index of “12µg/m³”. Which cities are those? “Most cities,” says Katie Alsop of the RINJ women’s civil society group.

Only 9 out of 62 regional capitals included in a recent study have an annual mean PM2.5 level within the WHO air quality guideline of 10µg/m³. See the report: world-air-quality-report-en.

Protect your respiratory system from COVID-19, Influenza and Toxic Airborne Particles.

Warning issued by Civil Society in January 2020

Warning issued by Civil Society in January 2020