Trudeau may avert a SARS2 tailspin as Santa delivers 3 biggies
1.) The Moderna vaccine is much easier to deliver to remote regions than Pfizer’s immunology response to the deadly SARS-CoV2 virus. This Moderna response is now approved in Canada and units are being delivered immediately as they arrive says the Canadian Armed Forces.
2.) Canadians, after a terrifying kick in the pants from SARS2, have begun to slowly change mitigation behaviour to alter the course of a runaway infection rate, although experts warn, ‘it may be a mirage’.
3.) According to Bloomberg, administration of vaccinations and a growing sum of savings in consumers’ bank accounts caused forecasters to revise their views of Canada’s 2021 recovery.
In short, global economists have saluted Trudeau’s generous pandemic relief response to Canadians’ needs.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month see Canada‘s output expanding by a new estimated average of 5.4%, annualized in the final three quarters of 2021.
Canada’s Federal Government Approves Moderna SARS2 Vaccine. Canadian Armed Forces hits the ground running with deliveries. Photo Credit: Melissa Hemingway. Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag
by Sharon Santiago and Micheal John
Biostatisticians are puzzled by a small change in trends for Canada COVID-19 Infection Growth
Data coming from the Civil Society pandemic solidarity team in Singapore indicates an improvement in Canada overall against the projection model which until 6-days ago has been on target, and bad.
The ‘forecast’ was for 600,000 cases by year’s end with a death rate of over 2.5%.
“The growth in cases in Canada has slowed slightly, which is a stark warning to the disease-deniers and Trumper-weirdos that Health Canada’s COVID-19-mitigation guidelines are working solidly and must be followed through the coming months,” added Harris.
“This is only a small change and it may be a mirage reflecting the end of the ‘Thanksgiving bump’,” says Fred Harris who leads the Civil Society Partners COVID19 tracking team in Singapore, “but it is there,” he said.
“We had two forecasts for Canada‘s year end. One was for powerful mitigation efforts and the other was for ‘no change’. I hope Canada can keep the Christmas spike under control. The country is close to the worst-case scenario despite the few days’ encouraging news. Otherwise Canada will be looking at a million cases by end of Spring 2021.”
Click to enlarge and read. Canada Shows Slight Improvement in pandemic mitigation. Source: Civil Society Partners COVID19 tracking team in Singapore
The Moderna Vaccine brings to two the pharmacological responses to the SARS-CoV-2 Virus in use by Canada
In other Canadian news, Canada‘s immunology experts at Health Canada, who had been receiving progress reports from Moderna, approved the company’s COVID19 vaccine Wednesday.
Canada‘s Ontario province’s Premier Douglas Ford issued an enthusiastic statement, Wednesday afternoon.
“This is phenomenal news for Ontarians and Canadians – yet another life-saving COVID-19 vaccine has been approved for safe and effective use in the province and in the country. We are taking another step towards ending this terrible pandemic. The federal government has allocated approximately 53,000 doses of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine for Ontario in December 2020, and they will be delivered before the end of the month. These are the first of 40 million doses Canada will be receiving through its agreement with Moderna.”
“Canada has an internationally recognized process of independent review, and I know that our best experts have upheld this highest standard,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during a Wednesday afternoon news conference.
“Now that Health Canada has approved the Moderna vaccine, we have the green light to start rolling it out across the country,” Trudeau added.
Past estimates said that 168,000 doses of the vaccine would be administered to high risk patients this December.
“We know that this pandemic doesn’t start to end until we have vaccination of millions and millions of people which is why we’re continuing to ensure that everything is done safely and responsibly, to make those vaccines available as quickly as possible and we all look forward to things being much better in the spring,” Trudeau said.
Every Number has a face. Photo Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag
SARS2 Update 2022-06-27 04:00 GMT
- 254 Regions reported 548,232,792 cases
- 16,285,052 cases active
- 6,369,918 people reported killed by COVID-19
- 1.16% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
- 525,577,822 survived COVID-19
Beta Technology Global Estimates
- 38.36% of all humans (3,031,727,339) have been infected
- 0.63% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
(influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)) - 19,103,065 Total deaths (CSPaC.net estimated actual) including errors, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.
EPICENTER: USA (87,271,055)
- 145.01% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (482,608,934.15) human infections, some of which may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
- 1.19% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
- 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
- 1,303,044 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is showing.
Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths
| Canada | Cases | Deaths | Cured | Active |
| Reported: | 3,938,515 | 41,876 1.06% CFR | 3,844,227 | 52,412 |
| Estimate: | 21,779,988 | 54,438 *0.25% IFR | 21,258,575 | 289,838 |
*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.
| Canada Provinces | Deaths | CFR% | Cases | Cured | Active |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 Totals: | 41,876 | 1.06 | 3,938,515 | 3,844,227 | 52,412 |
| * Quebec | 15,559 | 1.44 | 1,083,480 | 1,058,418 | 9,503 |
| Ontario | 13,442 | 1.01 | 1,336,234 | 1,302,748 | 20,044 |
| Alberta | 4,604 | 0.78 | 587,890 | 574,468 | 8,818 |
| BC | 3,722 | 1.00 | 373,974 | 364,642 | 5,610 |
| Manitoba | 2,025 | 1.39 | 145,326 | 141,121 | 2,180 |
| Sask | 1,395 | 1.00 | 138,992 | 135,512 | 2,085 |
| First Nations | 730 | 0.67 | 109,364 | 107,996 | 638 |
| NB | 421 | 0.63 | 66,345 | 64,929 | 995 |
| Nova Scotia | 421 | 0.42 | 99,514 | 97,600 | 1,493 |
| NL | 187 | 0.40 | 46,647 | 45,760 | 700 |
| * PEI | 45 | 0.11 | 39,998 | 39,108 | 845 |
| Yukon | 26 | 0.59 | 4,436 | 4,343 | 67 |
| * NWT | 22 | 0.18 | 12,135 | 12,094 | 19 |
| Nunavut | 7 | 0.20 | 3,531 | 3,471 | 53 |
| Repatriates | 0 | 13 | 13 | 0 | |
| Sub Totals | 41,876 | 1.06 | 3,938,515 | 3,844,227 | 52,412 |
Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.
* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.
Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.
Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.
The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,779,988
(56.21% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases.
That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%
Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-06-26 are estimated to be 54,450 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.
54,450 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.
See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.
54438 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.
The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.
It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54438 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.
Canada's advanced public health standards.
Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).
Ontario, Canada Reports
Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.
These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.
| Health Unit | Cases | Deaths | CFR | Recoveries | Active |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algoma District | 8,581 | 57 | 0.7% | 8,445 | 79 |
| Brant County | 11,873 | 83 | 0.7% | 11,741 | 49 |
| Chatham-Kent | 8,798 | 92 | 1.0% | 8,683 | 23 |
| Hamilton | 58,974 | 571 | 1.0% | 58,066 | 337 |
| Ottawa | 74,552 | 818 | 1.1% | 73,252 | 482 |
| Durham Region | 63,071 | 496 | 0.8% | 62,295 | 280 |
| Eastern Ontario | 16,097 | 218 | 1.4% | 15,821 | 58 |
| Grey Bruce | 8,873 | 69 | 0.8% | 8,767 | 37 |
| Haldimand-Norfolk | 8,810 | 83 | 0.9% | 8,685 | 42 |
| Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge | 9,498 | 111 | 1.2% | 9,332 | 55 |
| Halton Region | 49,627 | 327 | 0.7% | 49,057 | 243 |
| Hastings & Prince Edward Counties | 10,388 | 63 | 0.6% | 10,254 | 71 |
| Huron Perth | 7,428 | 111 | 1.5% | 7,291 | 26 |
| Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington | 17,560 | 60 | 0.3% | 17,298 | 202 |
| Lambton County | 11,903 | 146 | 1.2% | 11,723 | 34 |
| Leeds Grenville And Lanark District | 9,567 | 106 | 1.1% | 9,357 | 104 |
| Middlesex-London | 38,523 | 401 | 1.0% | 37,964 | 158 |
| Niagara Region | 41,584 | 548 | 1.3% | 40,829 | 207 |
| North Bay Parry Sound District | 6,132 | 44 | 0.7% | 6,037 | 51 |
| Northwestern | 9,604 | 22 | 0.2% | 9,266 | 316 |
| Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas | 13,991 | 169 | 1.2% | 13,767 | 55 |
| Peel Region | 186,616 | 1,356 | 0.7% | 184,468 | 792 |
| Peterborough County-City | 7,607 | 80 | 1.1% | 7,481 | 46 |
| Porcupine | 7,431 | 69 | 0.9% | 7,321 | 41 |
| Renfrew County And District | 4,827 | 50 | 1.0% | 4,744 | 33 |
| Simcoe Muskoka District | 46,634 | 438 | 0.9% | 45,927 | 269 |
| Sudbury And District | 15,522 | 150 | 1.0% | 15,240 | 132 |
| Thunder Bay District | 12,907 | 96 | 0.7% | 12,640 | 171 |
| Timiskaming | 1,985 | 24 | 1.2% | 1,946 | 15 |
| Toronto | 324,716 | 4,263 | 1.3% | 318,653 | 1,800 |
| Waterloo Region | 46,756 | 421 | 0.9% | 46,139 | 196 |
| Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph | 22,462 | 162 | 0.7% | 22,193 | 107 |
| Windsor-Essex County | 44,224 | 632 | 1.4% | 43,433 | 159 |
| York Region | 112,855 | 1,042 | 0.9% | 111,193 | 620 |
Watch if you wish as the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation Explains the Moderna Vaccine
