Trudeau may avert a SARS2 tailspin as Santa delivers 3 biggies

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1.) The Moderna vaccine is much easier to deliver to remote regions than Pfizer’s immunology response to the deadly SARS-CoV2 virus. This Moderna response is now approved in Canada and units are being delivered immediately as they arrive says the Canadian Armed Forces.

2.) Canadians, after a terrifying kick in the pants from SARS2, have begun to slowly change mitigation behaviour to alter the course of a runaway infection rate, although experts warn, ‘it may be a mirage’.

3.) According to Bloomberg, administration of vaccinations and a growing sum of savings in consumers’ bank accounts caused forecasters to revise their views of Canada’s 2021 recovery.

   In short, global economists have saluted Trudeau’s generous pandemic relief response to Canadians’ needs.

   Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month see Canada‘s output expanding by a new estimated average of 5.4%, annualized in the final three quarters of 2021.

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by Sharon Santiago and Micheal John

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Biostatisticians are puzzled by a small change in trends for Canada COVID-19 Infection Growth

Data coming from the Civil Society pandemic solidarity team in Singapore indicates an improvement in Canada overall against the projection model which until 6-days ago has been on target, and bad.

The ‘forecast’ was for 600,000 cases by year’s end with a death rate of over  2.5%.

“The growth in cases in Canada has slowed slightly, which is a stark warning to the disease-deniers  and Trumper-weirdos that Health Canada’s COVID-19-mitigation guidelines are working solidly and must be followed through the coming months,”  added Harris.

  “This is only a small change and it may be a mirage reflecting the end of the ‘Thanksgiving bump’,” says Fred Harris who leads the Civil Society Partners COVID19 tracking team in Singapore, “but it is there,” he said.

“We had two forecasts for Canada‘s year end. One was for powerful mitigation efforts and the other was for ‘no change’. I hope Canada can keep the Christmas spike under control. The country is close to the worst-case scenario despite the few days’ encouraging news. Otherwise Canada will be looking at a million cases by end of Spring 2021.”

The Moderna Vaccine brings to two the pharmacological responses to the SARS-CoV-2 Virus in use by Canada

In other Canadian news, Canada‘s immunology experts at Health Canada, who had been receiving progress reports from Moderna, approved the company’s COVID19 vaccine Wednesday.

Canada‘s Ontario province’s Premier Douglas Ford issued an enthusiastic statement, Wednesday afternoon.

“This is phenomenal news for Ontarians and Canadians – yet another life-saving COVID-19 vaccine has been approved for safe and effective use in the province and in the country. We are taking another step towards ending this terrible pandemic. The federal government has allocated approximately 53,000 doses of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine for Ontario in December 2020, and they will be delivered before the end of the month. These are the first of 40 million doses Canada will be receiving through its agreement with Moderna.”

“Canada has an internationally recognized process of independent review, and I know that our best experts have upheld this highest standard,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during a Wednesday afternoon news conference.

“Now that Health Canada has approved the Moderna vaccine, we have the green light to start rolling it out across the country,” Trudeau added.

Past estimates said that 168,000 doses of the vaccine would be administered to high risk patients this December.

“We know that this pandemic doesn’t start to end until we have vaccination of millions and millions of people which is why we’re continuing to ensure that everything is done safely and responsibly, to make those vaccines available as quickly as possible and we all look forward to things being much better in the spring,” Trudeau said.

January 27, 2022

SARS2 Update 2022-01-27 01:39 GMT

• 253 Regions reported 362,608,011 cases
• 65,199,344 cases active
• 5,662,763 people reported killed by COVID-19
• 1.56% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
• 291,745,904 survived COVID-19

• 23.63% of all humans (1,860,179,096) have been infected
• 0.70% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  (influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
• 12,961,781 Total deaths (estimated actual) including errors, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.

EPICENTER: USA (72,962,509)

• 112.59% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (374,297,671.17) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
• 1.22% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
• 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
• 1,010,604 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is higher than what CSPaC is showing.

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Population: 38,585,269 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Canada	Cases	Deaths	Cured	Active
Reported:	2,979,523	33,124 1.11% CFR	2,690,890	255,509
Estimate:	15,284,953	53,462 *0.35% IFR	13,804,266	1,310,761

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

Canada Provinces	Deaths	CFR%	Cases	Cured	Active
COVID-19 Totals:	33,124	1.11	2,979,523	2,690,890	255,509
Quebec	12,941	1.53	845,563	787,493	45,129
Ontario	11,160	1.10	1,010,247	942,158	56,929
Alberta	3,505	0.73	481,182	429,934	47,743
BC	2,575	0.81	316,873	277,285	37,013
Manitoba	1,524	1.30	117,395	75,938	39,933
SK	983	0.87	112,693	99,262	12,448
First Nations	595	0.86	69,420	63,662	5,163
NB	221	0.81	27,261	21,722	5,318
Nova Scotia	136	0.38	35,543	31,157	4,250
NL	34	0.21	16,115	13,390	2,691
Yukon	16	0.53	3,006	2,823	167
NWT	15	0.28	5,333	4,356	962
Nunavut	5	0.34	1,487	1,187	295
PEI	9	0.13	6,812	4,172	2,631
Repatriates	0		13	13	0
Sub Totals	33,124	1.11	2,979,523	2,690,890	255,509

Note: Above is region/county Health Unit reports. First Nations data is monitored uniquely but included in provincial totals.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 15,284,953 (39.61% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.35%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-01-26 are estimated to be 53,497 Using estimated IFR of 0.35% which is far below global average IFR.

53,497 (0.35% IFR) is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

53462 Is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 53462 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

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Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Province differ significantly from the data reported by individual Public Health Units. CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit. CSPaC has heard the explanation from the province that data is reassigned from one PHU to another based on patient location. That means that patients are taken to the nearest available hospital and not necessarily to a medical facility in their own Public Health Region.

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Health Unit	Cases	Deaths	CFR	Recoveries	Active
Algoma District	3,450	24	0.7%	2,841	585
Brant County	8,966	55	0.6%	8,187	724
Chatham-Kent	5,771	58	1.0%	5,146	567
Hamilton	44,753	469	1.0%	41,383	2,901
Ottawa	56,437	678	1.2%	52,353	3,406
Durham Region	49,152	409	0.8%	45,705	3,038
Eastern Ontario	12,141	179	1.5%	11,009	953
Grey Bruce	5,233	40	0.8%	4,948	245
Haldimand-Norfolk	6,174	75	1.2%	5,587	512
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge	5,860	76	1.3%	5,067	717
Halton Region	39,385	280	0.7%	37,113	1,992
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties	5,548	34	0.6%	4,944	570
Huron Perth	4,900	82	1.7%	4,433	385
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington	8,456	31	0.4%	7,954	471
Lambton County	8,447	104	1.2%	7,600	743
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District	5,398	73	1.4%	4,732	593
Middlesex-London	28,075	288	1.0%	25,493	2,294
Niagara Region	30,531	475	1.6%	27,918	2,138
North Bay Parry Sound District	2,647	12	0.5%	2,397	238
Northwestern	3,067	12	0.4%	2,592	463
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas	9,850	136	1.4%	8,949	765
Peel Region	163,052	1,075	0.7%	154,583	7,394
Peterborough County-City	4,780	43	0.9%	4,326	411
Porcupine	4,084	36	0.9%	3,683	365
Renfrew County And District	2,650	20	0.8%	2,336	294
Simcoe Muskoka District	30,914	326	1.1%	28,401	2,187
Sudbury And District	8,651	82	0.9%	7,259	1,310
Thunder Bay District	6,397	76	1.2%	5,517	804
Timiskaming	940	8	0.9%	820	112
Toronto	263,549	3,918	1.5%	248,456	11,175
Waterloo Region	37,320	345	0.9%	34,515	2,460
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	16,862	135	0.8%	15,722	1,005
Windsor-Essex County	33,471	551	1.6%	30,910	2,010
York Region	93,336	955	1.0%	89,279	3,102
Totals:	1010247	11160	1.10%	942158	56929

Last Updated: 2022-01-27 Time 01:39:12 GMT. Source: CSPaC

Watch if you wish as the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation Explains the Moderna Vaccine