Canada pandemic growth Soaring as vaccines build hope

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News from across Canada on the pandemic front is sobering while there are more hopeful messages from companies that will sell Canada vaccines.

First, the Good News

Canada has arrangements with Pfizer, Moderna, Oxford-AstraZeneca, as well as Johnson and Johnson.

 Johnson & Johnson (J&J), began the process today of applying for emergency approval of its vaccine from Health Canada to which early testing data was sent from J&J’s experimental one-dose vaccine for preventing COVID-19.  (The pharmaceutical giant will also be testing the efficacy of a two-dose treatment.)

This article will share news from notable women, Canada’s Health Minister Patty Hajdu; and from Dr. Theresa Tam. Additionally, new  statistical data is available from the University of Washington and from the Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19 who have prepared some graphs for today.

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by Sharon Santiago

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This J&J data report was part of a set of rolling review submissions in a process of supplying data immediately it becomes available as a transparent window to the vaccine testing.

“It prevents a document and data overload when all testing has been done,” say officials at Johnson and Johnson.

Johnson & Johnson’s  statement today claimed that rolling submission were approved owing to positive results from laboratory testing that indicated a robust immune response in test subjects receiving the vaccine.

The company has said it will provide its vaccine on a not-for-profit basis throughout the pandemic emergency.

“Laboratories around the world are in a race to produce a COVID-19 vaccine. While the finish line is now in sight for Pfizer and BioNTech, the World Health Organization (WHO) lists 202 vaccine candidates, 47 of which are in human trials.

“Canada has not put all its eggs in one basket in its plan to protect Canadians from the novel coronavirus. In addition to Pfizer and BioNTech, it has signed six other contracts: Moderna, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, AstraZeneca and Medicago. Canada recently announced it had reserved 56 million additional doses of vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech, on top of the 20 million doses it had already purchased, bringing its order to 76 million.”

(Citing Aïssatou Aïcha Sow, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS) writing “Pfizer may be the frontrunner, but Canada hedged its bets” for The RINJ Foundation Conversation.

Today, Johnson and Johnson submitted their Janssen COVID-19 vaccine to Health Canada, the fourth vaccine to begin approvals in Canada and a promising development for Canadians.

— Patty Hajdu (@PattyHajdu) November 30, 2020

And now the very bad news—Canadians are slacking off mitigation efforts hence TENS OF THOUSANDS more WILL DIE By February.

There are three gruesome news items today:

• According to Health Canada, the number of COVID-19 cases in Canada through November increased by 200,000.
• On Monday, an additional 7,861 cases brought the total to close to 400,000.
• The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington published a forecast for Canada of  34,500 and if strong mitigation efforts were not universally practiced, that number could grow to 90,600 deaths by the 1st of February 2021.

This graph below shows the cumulative case counts as well as the daily COVID-19 infections. The climb in the number of cases is rapid.

 

2/2 Follow #Publichealth advice; limit outings to essentials and in-person activities to our existing household, #Avoid3Cs + maintain #handwashing + #PhysicalDistancing + #WearAMask. More #COVIDKnowHow:https://t.co/w27G7rHASE

— Dr. Theresa Tam (@CPHO_Canada) December 1, 2020

Dr. Theresa Tam issues 1 December Guidance for Families as COVID-19 cases hit new daily highs.

“It is safest for all of us to limit errands and outings to just the essentials,” says Canda’s top doctor.

“Limit in-person activities to just our existing household members and keep up with key prevention practices: stay home if you have symptoms, practise physical distancing and frequent handwashing, wear a face mask in indoor public places, and avoid the 3Cs, crowded places, closed spaces and close contact situations, whenever you can.”

“Read my backgrounder,” says Dr. Tam, “to access more COVID-19 Information and Resources on ways to reduce the risks and protect yourself and others.”

Statistical Live Updates from the Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19

January 27, 2022

Population: 38,585,269 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Canada	Cases	Deaths	Cured	Active
Reported:	2,979,523	33,124 1.11% CFR	2,690,890	255,509
Estimate:	15,284,953	53,462 *0.35% IFR	13,804,266	1,310,761

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

Canada Provinces	Deaths	CFR%	Cases	Cured	Active
COVID-19 Totals:	33,124	1.11	2,979,523	2,690,890	255,509
Quebec	12,941	1.53	845,563	787,493	45,129
Ontario	11,160	1.10	1,010,247	942,158	56,929
Alberta	3,505	0.73	481,182	429,934	47,743
BC	2,575	0.81	316,873	277,285	37,013
Manitoba	1,524	1.30	117,395	75,938	39,933
SK	983	0.87	112,693	99,262	12,448
First Nations	595	0.86	69,420	63,662	5,163
NB	221	0.81	27,261	21,722	5,318
Nova Scotia	136	0.38	35,543	31,157	4,250
NL	34	0.21	16,115	13,390	2,691
Yukon	16	0.53	3,006	2,823	167
NWT	15	0.28	5,333	4,356	962
Nunavut	5	0.34	1,487	1,187	295
PEI	9	0.13	6,812	4,172	2,631
Repatriates	0		13	13	0
Sub Totals	33,124	1.11	2,979,523	2,690,890	255,509

Note: Above is region/county Health Unit reports. First Nations data is monitored uniquely but included in provincial totals.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 15,284,953 (39.61% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.35%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-01-26 are estimated to be 53,497 Using estimated IFR of 0.35% which is far below global average IFR.

53,497 (0.35% IFR) is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

53462 Is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 53462 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

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Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Province differ significantly from the data reported by individual Public Health Units. CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit. CSPaC has heard the explanation from the province that data is reassigned from one PHU to another based on patient location. That means that patients are taken to the nearest available hospital and not necessarily to a medical facility in their own Public Health Region.

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Health Unit	Cases	Deaths	CFR	Recoveries	Active
Algoma District	3,450	24	0.7%	2,841	585
Brant County	8,966	55	0.6%	8,187	724
Chatham-Kent	5,771	58	1.0%	5,146	567
Hamilton	44,753	469	1.0%	41,383	2,901
Ottawa	56,437	678	1.2%	52,353	3,406
Durham Region	49,152	409	0.8%	45,705	3,038
Eastern Ontario	12,141	179	1.5%	11,009	953
Grey Bruce	5,233	40	0.8%	4,948	245
Haldimand-Norfolk	6,174	75	1.2%	5,587	512
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge	5,860	76	1.3%	5,067	717
Halton Region	39,385	280	0.7%	37,113	1,992
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties	5,548	34	0.6%	4,944	570
Huron Perth	4,900	82	1.7%	4,433	385
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington	8,456	31	0.4%	7,954	471
Lambton County	8,447	104	1.2%	7,600	743
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District	5,398	73	1.4%	4,732	593
Middlesex-London	28,075	288	1.0%	25,493	2,294
Niagara Region	30,531	475	1.6%	27,918	2,138
North Bay Parry Sound District	2,647	12	0.5%	2,397	238
Northwestern	3,067	12	0.4%	2,592	463
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas	9,850	136	1.4%	8,949	765
Peel Region	163,052	1,075	0.7%	154,583	7,394
Peterborough County-City	4,780	43	0.9%	4,326	411
Porcupine	4,084	36	0.9%	3,683	365
Renfrew County And District	2,650	20	0.8%	2,336	294
Simcoe Muskoka District	30,914	326	1.1%	28,401	2,187
Sudbury And District	8,651	82	0.9%	7,259	1,310
Thunder Bay District	6,397	76	1.2%	5,517	804
Timiskaming	940	8	0.9%	820	112
Toronto	263,549	3,918	1.5%	248,456	11,175
Waterloo Region	37,320	345	0.9%	34,515	2,460
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	16,862	135	0.8%	15,722	1,005
Windsor-Essex County	33,471	551	1.6%	30,910	2,010
York Region	93,336	955	1.0%	89,279	3,102
Totals:	1010247	11160	1.10%	942158	56929

Last Updated: 2022-01-27 Time 01:39:12 GMT. Source: CSPaC

253 Locales report 362,608,011 COVID-19 cases of which there are 65,199,344 active cases, therefore 291,745,904 recoveries and 5,662,763 fatalities.

GMT 2022-01-27 01:39

Data reported should be in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in each locale as their governments report daily or from time to time. All data researched and published by The RINJ Foundation and partners in CSPaC.

©The RINJ Foundation 2020-2022-01-27T01:39:12Z #Singapore-SK-HUK-77
RINJ is with Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19.

SARS2 Update 2022-01-27 01:39 GMT

• Global Population: 7,871,660,945
• 253 Regions reported 362,608,011 cases
• 65,199,344 cases active
• 5,662,763 people reported killed by COVID-19
• 1.56% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
• 291,745,904 survived COVID-19

• 23.63% of all humans (1,860,179,096) have been infected
• 0.70% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  (influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
• 12,961,781 Total deaths (estimated actual) including errors, unexpected deaths with pneumonia indications with no history, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.

USA (73,803,262)

• 112.59% of the USA may have been infected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (374,297,671.17) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
• 1.22% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
• 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
• 1,010,604 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is higher than what CSPaC is showing.

The American Epicenter has 42.36 % of global 'active' cases (27,618,666 USA / 65,199,344 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Below: CSPAC estimated 2022-01-27 00:36 GMT COVID-19 data for India.

EPICENTER-2: India (40,369,585)

Reported	*Cases	*Deaths	*CFR	*Recovered
India	40,369,585	491,729	1.2%	37,665,744

*Reported by India but understated.

Note: India's reported death sum and cured data are widely seen among epidemiologists and biostatisticians as unreliable. For example, 2,704,460 is CSPAC estimated sum of deaths while India reports 491,729, creating the largest discepency in the world. India might only report hospital tested cases. Sources among hundreds of nurses and other medical practitioners provide a picture that in summary concludes most cases never present in a hospital especially in northern provinces where health care is less available and utilization is low anyway because of poverty, hence most people die at home in India. This theory could explain discrepancies between reported data and algorithmic estimates.

Locale	Cases	Deaths	Active
India reported:	40,369,585	491,729	2,212,112
India estimates:	207,095,971	2,704,460	11,166,244

Data collected and reported by: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19