Canada pandemic growth Soaring as vaccines build hope

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News from across Canada on the pandemic front is sobering while there are more hopeful messages from companies that will sell Canada vaccines.

First, the Good News

Canada has arrangements with Pfizer, Moderna, Oxford-AstraZeneca, as well as Johnson and Johnson.

 Johnson & Johnson (J&J), began the process today of applying for emergency approval of its vaccine from Health Canada to which early testing data was sent from J&J’s experimental one-dose vaccine for preventing COVID-19.  (The pharmaceutical giant will also be testing the efficacy of a two-dose treatment.)

This article will share news from notable women, Canada’s Health Minister Patty Hajdu; and from Dr. Theresa Tam. Additionally, new  statistical data is available from the University of Washington and from the Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19 who have prepared some graphs for today.

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by Sharon Santiago

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This J&J data report was part of a set of rolling review submissions in a process of supplying data immediately it becomes available as a transparent window to the vaccine testing.

“It prevents a document and data overload when all testing has been done,” say officials at Johnson and Johnson.

Johnson & Johnson’s  statement today claimed that rolling submission were approved owing to positive results from laboratory testing that indicated a robust immune response in test subjects receiving the vaccine.

The company has said it will provide its vaccine on a not-for-profit basis throughout the pandemic emergency.

“Laboratories around the world are in a race to produce a COVID-19 vaccine. While the finish line is now in sight for Pfizer and BioNTech, the World Health Organization (WHO) lists 202 vaccine candidates, 47 of which are in human trials.

“Canada has not put all its eggs in one basket in its plan to protect Canadians from the novel coronavirus. In addition to Pfizer and BioNTech, it has signed six other contracts: Moderna, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, AstraZeneca and Medicago. Canada recently announced it had reserved 56 million additional doses of vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech, on top of the 20 million doses it had already purchased, bringing its order to 76 million.”

(Citing Aïssatou Aïcha Sow, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS) writing “Pfizer may be the frontrunner, but Canada hedged its bets” for The RINJ Foundation Conversation.

Today, Johnson and Johnson submitted their Janssen COVID-19 vaccine to Health Canada, the fourth vaccine to begin approvals in Canada and a promising development for Canadians.

— Patty Hajdu (@PattyHajdu) November 30, 2020

And now the very bad news—Canadians are slacking off mitigation efforts hence TENS OF THOUSANDS more WILL DIE By February.

There are three gruesome news items today:

• According to Health Canada, the number of COVID-19 cases in Canada through November increased by 200,000.
• On Monday, an additional 7,861 cases brought the total to close to 400,000.
• The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington published a forecast for Canada of  34,500 and if strong mitigation efforts were not universally practiced, that number could grow to 90,600 deaths by the 1st of February 2021.

This graph below shows the cumulative case counts as well as the daily COVID-19 infections. The climb in the number of cases is rapid.

 

2/2 Follow #Publichealth advice; limit outings to essentials and in-person activities to our existing household, #Avoid3Cs + maintain #handwashing + #PhysicalDistancing + #WearAMask. More #COVIDKnowHow:https://t.co/w27G7rHASE

— Dr. Theresa Tam (@CPHO_Canada) December 1, 2020

Dr. Theresa Tam issues 1 December Guidance for Families as COVID-19 cases hit new daily highs.

“It is safest for all of us to limit errands and outings to just the essentials,” says Canda’s top doctor.

“Limit in-person activities to just our existing household members and keep up with key prevention practices: stay home if you have symptoms, practise physical distancing and frequent handwashing, wear a face mask in indoor public places, and avoid the 3Cs, crowded places, closed spaces and close contact situations, whenever you can.”

“Read my backgrounder,” says Dr. Tam, “to access more COVID-19 Information and Resources on ways to reduce the risks and protect yourself and others.”

Statistical Live Updates from the Civil Society Partners for Global Solidarity against COVID-19

June 27, 2022

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Canada	Cases	Deaths	Cured	Active
Reported:	3,941,183	41,879 1.06% CFR	3,847,110	52,194
Estimate:	21,794,742	54,442 *0.25% IFR	21,274,518	288,633

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada Provinces	Deaths	CFR%	Cases	Cured	Active
COVID-19 Totals:	41,879	1.06	3,941,183	3,847,110	52,194
* Quebec	15,559	1.43	1,085,058	1,059,985	9,514
Ontario	13,445	1.01	1,337,296	1,303,792	20,059
Alberta	4,604	0.78	587,890	574,468	8,818
BC	3,722	1.00	373,985	364,642	5,621
Manitoba	2,025	1.39	145,326	141,121	2,180
Sask	1,395	1.00	138,992	135,512	2,085
First Nations	740	0.67	110,221	108,013	1,468
NB	421	0.63	66,345	64,929	995
Nova Scotia	421	0.42	99,514	97,600	1,493
NL	187	0.40	46,647	45,760	700
* PEI	45	0.11	39,998	39,363	590
Yukon	26	0.58	4,453	4,360	67
* NWT	22	0.18	12,135	12,094	19
Nunavut	7	0.20	3,531	3,471	53
Repatriates	0		13	13	0
Sub Totals	41,879	1.06	3,941,183	3,847,110	52,194

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,794,742 (56.25% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-06-27 are estimated to be 54,487 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,487 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54442 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54442 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

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Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.

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Health Unit	Cases	Deaths	CFR	Recoveries	Active
Algoma District	8,581	57	0.7%	8,445	79
Brant County	11,873	83	0.7%	11,741	49
Chatham-Kent	8,798	92	1.0%	8,683	23
Durham Region	63,071	496	0.8%	62,295	280
Eastern Ontario	16,097	218	1.4%	15,821	58
Grey Bruce	8,873	69	0.8%	8,767	37
Haldimand-Norfolk	8,810	83	0.9%	8,685	42
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge	9,498	111	1.2%	9,332	55
Halton Region	49,627	327	0.7%	49,057	243
Hamilton	58,974	571	1.0%	58,066	337
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties	10,388	63	0.6%	10,254	71
Huron Perth	7,428	111	1.5%	7,291	26
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington	17,560	60	0.3%	17,298	202
Lambton County	11,903	146	1.2%	11,723	34
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District	9,567	106	1.1%	9,357	104
Middlesex-London	38,523	401	1.0%	37,964	158
Niagara Region	41,584	548	1.3%	40,829	207
North Bay Parry Sound District	6,132	44	0.7%	6,037	51
Northwestern	9,604	22	0.2%	9,266	316
Ottawa	74,552	818	1.1%	73,252	482
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas	13,991	169	1.2%	13,767	55
Peel Region	186,616	1,356	0.7%	184,468	792
Peterborough County-City	7,607	80	1.1%	7,481	46
Porcupine	7,431	69	0.9%	7,321	41
Renfrew County And District	4,827	50	1.0%	4,744	33
Simcoe Muskoka District	46,634	438	0.9%	45,927	269
Sudbury And District	15,522	150	1.0%	15,240	132
Thunder Bay District	12,907	96	0.7%	12,640	171
Timiskaming	1,985	24	1.2%	1,946	15
Toronto	324,716	4,263	1.3%	318,653	1,800
Waterloo Region	46,756	421	0.9%	46,139	196
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	22,462	162	0.7%	22,193	107
Windsor-Essex County	44,224	632	1.4%	43,433	159
York Region	112,855	1,042	0.9%	111,193	620

Last Updated: 2022-06-27 Time 10:09:17 GMT. Source: CSPaC

254 Locales report 548,568,189 COVID-19 cases of which there are 16,184,869 active cases, therefore 526,012,789 recoveries and 6,370,531 fatalities.

GMT 2022-06-27 10:09

Data reported should be in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in each locale as their governments report daily or from time to time. All data researched and published by The RINJ Foundation and partners in CSPaC.

©The RINJ Foundation 2020-2022-06-27T10:09:17Z #Singapore-SK-HUK-77
RINJ is with Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19.

SARS2 Update 2022-06-27 10:09 GMT

• Global Population: 7,903,501,966
• 254 Regions reported 548,568,189 cases
• 16,184,869 cases active
• 6,370,531 people reported killed by COVID-19
• 1.16% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
• 526,012,789 survived COVID-19

• 38.38% of all humans (3,033,582,085) have been infected
• 0.63% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  (influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
• 19,104,903 Total deaths (CSPaC.net estimated actual) including errors, unexpected deaths with pneumonia indications with no history, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

USA (88,391,882)

• 145.03% of the USA may have been infected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (482,657,587.09) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
• 1.19% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
• 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
• 1,303,175 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is showing.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

The American Epicenter has 17.53 % of global 'active' cases (2,837,462 USA / 16,184,869 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Below: CSPAC estimated 2022-06-27 10:08 GMT COVID-19 data for India.

EPICENTER-2: India (43,407,046)

Reported	*Cases	*Deaths	*CFR	*Recovered
India	43,407,046	525,020	1.2%	42,787,606

*Reported by India but understated.

Note: India's reported death sum and cured data are widely seen among epidemiologists and biostatisticians as unreliable. For example, 3,045,063 is CSPAC estimated sum of deaths while India reports 525,020, creating the largest discepency in the world. India might only report hospital tested cases. Sources among hundreds of nurses and other medical practitioners provide a picture that in summary concludes most cases never present in a hospital especially in northern provinces where health care is less available and utilization is low anyway because of poverty, hence most people die at home in India. This theory could explain discrepancies between reported data and algorithmic estimates.

Locale	Cases	Deaths	Active
India reported:	43,407,046	525,020	94,420
India estimates:	240,040,964	3,045,063	380,439

Data collected and reported by: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19