Canada / USA SARS-CoV-2 Infections on alarming trajectory



The total actual number of infections in Canada is likely greater than 6,138,350 (16.325% of the Canadian population) including unreported mild and asymptomatic cases. A nearly ten percent positive testing result on top of the existing cases and the asymptomatic cases that will never be tested helps the mind’s eye see the facts, but that is not how the data is calculated.

The fact of the high number of unknown asymptomatic cases moving around in society makes the new B.1.1.7 British strain with its 23 modifications, the highest known anomaly of this virus, more worrisome for public health officials.

This article will share some startling news but also brings to the reader some good thoughts of good people who know how to help families stay safe.


by Micheal John


Moms and kids are hearing about the new SARS2 strain and there is no doubt it is causing some panicky feelings, according to the emails FPMag has been receiving. That worry may be the wrong one to have. Preventing any contact with the virus is the important goal.

The civil society solidarity team has found some amazing videos with the help of the World Health Organization to inform children how they can join the global solidarity movement fighting this menace. That good stuff is here.

B.1.1.7 (VUI–202012/01)  is said to be far more infectious and as it spreads among millions of people who exhibit no symptoms, the importance of physically distancing; mask wearing; handwashing; general hygiene; detecting and isolating cases; identifying and quarantining close contacts; and preventing infections from entering Canada, all become paramount. Unfortunately the North American test, trace, treat and quarantine infrastructure is nowhere like what China has assembled. China has achieved some great results with its CTTIO (Contact Tracing / Treatment / Isolation / Observation) teamwork.

“B.1.1.7 (VUI–202012/01) is not the menace. Catching the coronavirus is the menace. But the families which follow the guidelines for avoiding infection, in the massive majority, do not contract this virus,” observed Dr. Anderson of The RINJ Foundation at a recent briefing. “Follow your public health guidelines and your family should be safe,” added the kind doctor.

“The new strain is not the menace; catching COVID-19 is still the real menace. Health Canada shares useful information for mothers and children to help them avoid infection,” stressed the doctor who says that avoiding infection is easily done by those who know how hence learning is important. “Use the resources available and follow the advice of your own doctors.”

The United States has proven that ‘forced Herd Immunity‘  is mythical nonsense.

It is likely that 64.939% of the USA, since November 2019, has been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus including reported + estimated unreported mild and asymptomatic cases (213,000,813). That number does not include a large percentage of reinfections which cause a patient to be counted twice. It should be added that the American Red Cross has detected the virus in blood donations going back to the fall of 2019.

The Civil society Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19 has been maintaining a beta computer application for assembling information and predicting unreported data all year using tons of exact data, especially numerous University student serology testing projects in southern and northern west coast America. Thus far, the information is consistent with most scientific reports of other biostatistical calculations and public health forecasts.

June 26, 2022

SARS2 Update 2022-06-26 T:16:19 GMT

  • 254 Regions reported 548,232,792 cases
  • 16,285,052 cases active
  • 6,369,918 people reported killed by COVID-19
  • 1.16% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
  • 525,577,822 survived COVID-19

Beta Technology Global Estimates

EPICENTER: USA (87,271,055)

  • 145.01% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (482,608,934.15) human infections, some of which may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.19% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 1,303,044 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is showing.

The Christmas reduction in testing created blips

Tests that were not being conducted during the Christmas holiday period have restarted and will be seen today and over the next few days. It will look like a surge but that is not necessarily the case, say statisticians.

Experts think that things could have been worse and that mitigation efforts are working. The formula is straightforward and has never changed: physically distance; detect and isolate cases of COVID-19; identify and quarantine close contacts; and prevent infections from entering the country with strong quarantine measures.

The accumulation of active cases today beats all records in Canada and threatens to possibly overwhelm medical resources according to federal Canadian officials plus officials in Ontario and Quebec.

The climb in new cases for Canada is steep.

Click any graph to enlarge.

Canada sum of COVID-19 Cases

Complex 2020 COVID-19 Chart for Canada . Source: Civil society Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19

June 26, 2022

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:3,938,51541,876 1.06% CFR3,844,22752,412
Estimate:21,779,98854,438 *0.25% IFR21,258,575289,838

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:41,8761.063,938,5153,844,22752,412
* Quebec15,5591.441,083,4801,058,4189,503
Ontario13,4421.011,336,2341,302,74820,044
Alberta4,6040.78587,890574,4688,818
BC3,7221.00373,974364,6425,610
Manitoba2,0251.39145,326141,1212,180
Sask1,3951.00138,992135,5122,085
First Nations7300.67109,364107,996638
NB4210.6366,34564,929995
Nova Scotia4210.4299,51497,6001,493
NL1870.4046,64745,760700
* PEI450.1139,99839,108845
Yukon260.594,4364,34367
* NWT220.1812,13512,09419
Nunavut70.203,5313,47153
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals41,8761.063,938,5153,844,22752,412

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,779,988 (56.21% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-06-26 are estimated to be 54,450 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,450 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54438 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54438 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District8,581570.7%8,44579
Brant County11,873830.7%11,74149
Chatham-Kent8,798921.0%8,68323
Hamilton58,9745711.0%58,066337
Ottawa74,5528181.1%73,252482
Durham Region63,0714960.8%62,295280
Eastern Ontario16,0972181.4%15,82158
Grey Bruce8,873690.8%8,76737
Haldimand-Norfolk8,810830.9%8,68542
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge9,4981111.2%9,33255
Halton Region49,6273270.7%49,057243
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties10,388630.6%10,25471
Huron Perth7,4281111.5%7,29126
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington17,560600.3%17,298202
Lambton County11,9031461.2%11,72334
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District9,5671061.1%9,357104
Middlesex-London38,5234011.0%37,964158
Niagara Region41,5845481.3%40,829207
North Bay Parry Sound District6,132440.7%6,03751
Northwestern9,604220.2%9,266316
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas13,9911691.2%13,76755
Peel Region186,6161,3560.7%184,468792
Peterborough County-City7,607801.1%7,48146
Porcupine7,431690.9%7,32141
Renfrew County And District4,827501.0%4,74433
Simcoe Muskoka District46,6344380.9%45,927269
Sudbury And District15,5221501.0%15,240132
Thunder Bay District12,907960.7%12,640171
Timiskaming1,985241.2%1,94615
Toronto324,7164,2631.3%318,6531,800
Waterloo Region46,7564210.9%46,139196
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph22,4621620.7%22,193107
Windsor-Essex County44,2246321.4%43,433159
York Region112,8551,0420.9%111,193620
Last Updated: 2022-06-26 Time 15:21:02 GMT. Source: CSPaC

 

While the political data dissemination processes of the United States claim the current sum of COVID-19 deaths sits at 335,820 at the time of publication, a running algorithm forecasting excess deaths based on the events of 2020 at roughly 100,000 more, 441, 645. At the same time the estimated IFR figure produces 428,132 deaths, not accounting for eventually untested fatalities. In short, the excess deaths are now over 100k higher than the Trump administration’s politically vetted data.

“We do not have the last ten days data hence those days are estimations based on our own trends which do factor in and correlate published events like trailer loads of accumulated deceased being processed by medical examiners creating bumps in the medically reported deaths that are not mentioned in the politically reported events. We also incorporate the work of the Centers for Disease Control,” says Fred Harris, biostatistician team lead for the Civil society Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19.

Click any graph to enlarge.

USA Excess deaths attributed to SARS2

United States estimated excess deaths for the current 15-day period. Source: Civil society Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19

The above data is not to be confused with the estimated IFR.  An estimated 0.201% is the (publication date’s) estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) (428,132 USA deaths by 29 December 2020). The numbers in the graph above include pneumonia cases and thrombosis cases that never made it to a hospital and were never tested. Infection fatality risks or rates are based on actual numbers of cases known long after the pandemic has ended. Until then, IFR estimates are purely guesswork, but useful guesswork.

“The point of this graph (above),” says Mr. Harris, “is that this would never have happened if there was no SARS-CoV-2. This is the price of COVID-19. This horrible truth also strengthens the argument that public health guidelines for mitigation are extremely important.”

USA Heads for 20 million cases in a matter of hours or days.

USA COVID-19 trajectory, always bad, is only getting worse.

USA COVID-19 trajectory, always bad, is only getting worse. Source: Civil society Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19

What is happening in the United States?

Testing during the Christmas period took a back seat to other things but is now getting back on track. Numbers will seem to surge but that will mostly be attributable to the accumulation of unreported data.

June 26, 2022

U.S.A. (pop. 332,803,287)

  • CoV19 Reported Cases: 88,380,921
  • Current Reported Deaths:(CFR: 1.19%): 1,035,062 CSPaC.net estimated actual: 1,303,044
  • Cured: 84,430,789
  • Beta experimental: All time reported + unreported asymptomatic people maybe not sick, not immune, but possibly infectious and including the many people who have had several mild or asymptomatic infections: 482,608,934.15
  • 145.01% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (482,608,934.15) human infections, some of which may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.19% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 1,303,044 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is estimating.
Rest of the world excluding USA.
  • CoV19 Cases: 459,851,871
  • Deaths: 5,334,856 | 1.16%
  • Cured: 441,147,033
  • Reported + estimated all unreported 3,031,727,339

Note: Total statistics for the United States do not include these offshore territories. The US Military is included as if it is an offshore territory, not reported as continental USA data but as USA overall totals and included in world totals. FPMag evaluates these separately for many reasons.

TerritoryCasesDeathsRecovered
Continental US87,271,0551,035,062 | 1.19%83,719,584
+US Military661,831688 | 0.1%628,967
+Guam51,234371 | 0.7%50,338
+Puerto Rico 358,0584,519 | 1.26%327,367
+US Virgin Islands20,760118 | 0.6%20,423
+Northern Mariana Islands11,56934 | 0.3%11,477
+American Samoa6,41431 | 0.5%5,958
Totals88,380,9211,040,79284,430,789

The American Epicenter including ALL Territories has 17.87 % of global 'active' cases (2,909,340 USA (incl territories) / 16,285,052 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Abundant proof that vaccines are working, an observation derived from unrelated data analysis.

As the epicenter we look at continental USA together with US territories and without. The significant decline in Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the continental United States particularly, during 2 0 2 1, since vaccines became available, is believed to be due to vaccination rates and is abundant proof that the vaccines are working.

In order to avoid letting countries that refuse to report the sum of case recoveries, thus skewing global calculations, Burundi, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Britain, most provinces of Canada, Ecuador, FaeroeIslands, Falklands, Finland, France, French Polynesia, Hong Kong, Iceland, Mongolia, Laos, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Ukraine, South Korea, Tunisia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Spain and Sweden 'recoveries' are estimated based on the current reported global recoveries as a percentage of all cases. (([reported recoveries]) divide (548,232,792 [Global Reported Sum of All Cases] less 29,596,809 [France Sum of Cases] less 901,739 [Ecuador Sum of Cases] less 12,681,820 [Spain Sum of Cases] less 8,152,778 [Netherlands Sum of Cases] less 2,515,769 [Sweden Sum of Cases] less 3,613,464 [Peru Sum of Cases])) = 96% a coefficient which is then adjusted according to the number of cases in the past 30 days and the new coefficient is applied to the sum of each of these nation's cumulative cases to estimate the missing recoveries data. In the case of France some additional hospital-sourced recovery data is factored.

Reported:
All USASum of CasesDeathsRecoveredActive
Continental USA87,271,0551,035,06283,719,5842,516,409
USA+territories88,380,9211,040,79284,430,789 2,909,340
Estimated:



USA+territories482,608,934.151,303,044466,902,26314,407,669

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

See also IHME Estimates for America.

Daily cumulative cases and deaths in Canada

Daily cumulative cases and deaths in Canada. Source: Civil society Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19

254 Locales report 548,232,792 COVID-19 cases of which there are 16,285,052 active cases, therefore 525,577,822 recoveries and 6,369,918 fatalities.

GMT 2022-06-26 15:21

Data reported should be in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in each locale as their governments report daily or from time to time. All data researched and published by The RINJ Foundation and partners in CSPaC.

©The RINJ Foundation 2020-2022-06-26T15:21:01Z #Singapore-SK-HUK-77
RINJ is with Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19.

SARS2 Update 2022-06-26 15:21 GMT

  • Global Population: 7,903,501,966
  • 254 Regions reported 548,232,792 cases
  • 16,285,052 cases active
  • 6,369,918 people reported killed by COVID-19
  • 1.16% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
  • 525,577,822 survived COVID-19
Beta Technology Global Estimates
  • 38.36% of all humans (3,031,727,339) have been infected
  • 0.63% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
    (influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
  • 19,103,065 Total deaths (CSPaC.net estimated actual) including errors, unexpected deaths with pneumonia indications with no history, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

USA (88,380,921)
  • 145.01% of the USA may have been infected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (482,608,934.15) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.19% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 1,303,044 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is showing.
  • See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

    The American Epicenter has 17.87 % of global 'active' cases (2,909,340 USA / 16,285,052 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Below: CSPAC estimated 2022-06-26 03:02 GMT COVID-19 data for India.

EPICENTER-2: India (43,391,331)

Reported*Cases*Deaths*CFR*Recovered
India43,391,331524,9741.2%42,761,481
*Reported by India but understated.

Note: India's reported death sum and cured data are widely seen among epidemiologists and biostatisticians as unreliable. For example, 3,044,797 is CSPAC estimated sum of deaths while India reports 524,974, creating the largest discepency in the world. India might only report hospital tested cases. Sources among hundreds of nurses and other medical practitioners provide a picture that in summary concludes most cases never present in a hospital especially in northern provinces where health care is less available and utilization is low anyway because of poverty, hence most people die at home in India. This theory could explain discrepancies between reported data and algorithmic estimates.

LocaleCasesDeathsActive
India reported:43,391,331524,974104,876
India estimates:239,954,0603,044,797438,273

Data collected and reported by: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19