Canada / USA SARS-CoV-2 Infections on alarming trajectory



The total actual number of infections in Canada is likely greater than 6,138,350 (16.325% of the Canadian population) including unreported mild and asymptomatic cases. A nearly ten percent positive testing result on top of the existing cases and the asymptomatic cases that will never be tested helps the mind’s eye see the facts, but that is not how the data is calculated.

The fact of the high number of unknown asymptomatic cases moving around in society makes the new B.1.1.7 British strain with its 23 modifications, the highest known anomaly of this virus, more worrisome for public health officials.

This article will share some startling news but also brings to the reader some good thoughts of good people who know how to help families stay safe.


by Micheal John


Moms and kids are hearing about the new SARS2 strain and there is no doubt it is causing some panicky feelings, according to the emails FPMag has been receiving. That worry may be the wrong one to have. Preventing any contact with the virus is the important goal.

The civil society solidarity team has found some amazing videos with the help of the World Health Organization to inform children how they can join the global solidarity movement fighting this menace. That good stuff is here.

B.1.1.7 (VUI–202012/01)  is said to be far more infectious and as it spreads among millions of people who exhibit no symptoms, the importance of physically distancing; mask wearing; handwashing; general hygiene; detecting and isolating cases; identifying and quarantining close contacts; and preventing infections from entering Canada, all become paramount. Unfortunately the North American test, trace, treat and quarantine infrastructure is nowhere like what China has assembled. China has achieved some great results with its CTTIO (Contact Tracing / Treatment / Isolation / Observation) teamwork.

“B.1.1.7 (VUI–202012/01) is not the menace. Catching the coronavirus is the menace. But the families which follow the guidelines for avoiding infection, in the massive majority, do not contract this virus,” observed Dr. Anderson of The RINJ Foundation at a recent briefing. “Follow your public health guidelines and your family should be safe,” added the kind doctor.

“The new strain is not the menace; catching COVID-19 is still the real menace. Health Canada shares useful information for mothers and children to help them avoid infection,” stressed the doctor who says that avoiding infection is easily done by those who know how hence learning is important. “Use the resources available and follow the advice of your own doctors.”

The United States has proven that ‘forced Herd Immunity‘  is mythical nonsense.

It is likely that 64.939% of the USA, since November 2019, has been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus including reported + estimated unreported mild and asymptomatic cases (213,000,813). That number does not include a large percentage of reinfections which cause a patient to be counted twice. It should be added that the American Red Cross has detected the virus in blood donations going back to the fall of 2019.

The Civil society Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19 has been maintaining a beta computer application for assembling information and predicting unreported data all year using tons of exact data, especially numerous University student serology testing projects in southern and northern west coast America. Thus far, the information is consistent with most scientific reports of other biostatistical calculations and public health forecasts.

January 22, 2022

SARS2 Update 2022-01-22 T:10:41 GMT

  • 253 Regions reported 345,958,614 cases
  • 59,839,384 cases active
  • 5,619,221 people reported killed by COVID-19
  • 1.62% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
  • 280,500,009 survived COVID-19

Beta Technology Global Estimates

EPICENTER: USA (69,966,172)

  • 107.97% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (358,926,462.36) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.26% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 969,101 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is higher than what CSPaC is showing.

The Christmas reduction in testing created blips

Tests that were not being conducted during the Christmas holiday period have restarted and will be seen today and over the next few days. It will look like a surge but that is not necessarily the case, say statisticians.

Experts think that things could have been worse and that mitigation efforts are working. The formula is straightforward and has never changed: physically distance; detect and isolate cases of COVID-19; identify and quarantine close contacts; and prevent infections from entering the country with strong quarantine measures.

The accumulation of active cases today beats all records in Canada and threatens to possibly overwhelm medical resources according to federal Canadian officials plus officials in Ontario and Quebec.

The climb in new cases for Canada is steep.

Click any graph to enlarge.

Canada sum of COVID-19 Cases

Complex 2020 COVID-19 Chart for Canada . Source: Civil society Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19

January 22, 2022

Population: 38,585,269 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:2,891,41032,376 1.12% CFR2,565,901293,133
Estimate:14,832,93352,255 *0.35% IFR13,163,0721,503,772

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:32,3761.122,891,4102,565,901293,133
Quebec12,6981.54824,941761,21451,029
Ontario10,8651.10984,359898,58974,905
Alberta3,4290.73466,616401,57261,615
BC2,5290.82308,079265,76539,785
Manitoba1,4921.31114,02175,95436,575
SK9690.91106,32893,16012,199
First Nations5900.8966,13160,1155,426
NB2010.8025,00320,0834,719
Nova Scotia1280.3933,08327,5255,430
NL300.2114,52211,8162,676
Yukon150.532,8202,592213
NWT130.284,7003,3221,365
Nunavut50.391,2971,097195
PEI20.045,6283,1992,427
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals32,3761.122,891,4102,565,901293,133

Note: Above is region/county Health Unit reports from the province of Ontario and the individual units.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 14,832,933 (38.44% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.35%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-01-21 are estimated to be 51,915 Using estimated IFR of 0.35% which is far below global average IFR.

51,915 (0.35% IFR) is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

52255 Is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 52255 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District3,188220.7%2,596570
Brant County8,733510.6%7,784898
Chatham-Kent5,473510.9%4,792630
Durham Region48,0274010.8%42,7784,848
Eastern Ontario11,6971661.4%10,2921,239
Grey Bruce5,069370.7%4,717315
Haldimand-Norfolk5,975751.3%5,260640
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge5,481741.4%4,710697
Halton Region38,2452730.7%35,1332,839
Hamilton43,4374471.0%39,4053,585
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties5,329290.5%4,550750
Huron Perth4,718801.7%4,236402
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington8,167280.3%7,591548
Lambton County8,1511011.2%7,098952
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District5,141731.4%4,494574
Middlesex-London27,1392801.0%24,1352,724
Niagara Region29,6324681.6%26,5042,660
North Bay Parry Sound District2,464110.4%2,239214
Northwestern2,828120.4%2,407409
Ottawa54,7816571.2%49,9624,162
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas9,4931301.4%8,521842
Peel Region159,3681,0570.7%148,11410,197
Peterborough County-City4,590410.9%4,029520
Porcupine3,942330.8%3,485424
Renfrew County And District2,473170.7%2,094362
Simcoe Muskoka District29,9343091.0%26,7892,836
Sudbury And District8,166740.9%6,6621,430
Thunder Bay District6,020731.2%5,075872
Timiskaming90360.7%769128
Toronto259,0623,8571.5%239,80915,396
Waterloo Region36,3053340.9%32,1773,794
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph16,4251330.8%15,0391,253
Windsor-Essex County32,5065381.7%29,4692,499
York Region91,4979271.0%85,8744,696
Totals:984359108651.10%89858974905
Last Updated: 2022-01-22 Time 03:22:10 GMT. Source: CSPaC

 

While the political data dissemination processes of the United States claim the current sum of COVID-19 deaths sits at 335,820 at the time of publication, a running algorithm forecasting excess deaths based on the events of 2020 at roughly 100,000 more, 441, 645. At the same time the estimated IFR figure produces 428,132 deaths, not accounting for eventually untested fatalities. In short, the excess deaths are now over 100k higher than the Trump administration’s politically vetted data.

“We do not have the last ten days data hence those days are estimations based on our own trends which do factor in and correlate published events like trailer loads of accumulated deceased being processed by medical examiners creating bumps in the medically reported deaths that are not mentioned in the politically reported events. We also incorporate the work of the Centers for Disease Control,” says Fred Harris, biostatistician team lead for the Civil society Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19.

Click any graph to enlarge.

USA Excess deaths attributed to SARS2

United States estimated excess deaths for the current 15-day period. Source: Civil society Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19

The above data is not to be confused with the estimated IFR.  An estimated 0.201% is the (publication date’s) estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) (428,132 USA deaths by 29 December 2020). The numbers in the graph above include pneumonia cases and thrombosis cases that never made it to a hospital and were never tested. Infection fatality risks or rates are based on actual numbers of cases known long after the pandemic has ended. Until then, IFR estimates are purely guesswork, but useful guesswork.

“The point of this graph (above),” says Mr. Harris, “is that this would never have happened if there was no SARS-CoV-2. This is the price of COVID-19. This horrible truth also strengthens the argument that public health guidelines for mitigation are extremely important.”

USA Heads for 20 million cases in a matter of hours or days.

USA COVID-19 trajectory, always bad, is only getting worse.

USA COVID-19 trajectory, always bad, is only getting worse. Source: Civil society Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19

What is happening in the United States?

Testing during the Christmas period took a back seat to other things but is now getting back on track. Numbers will seem to surge but that will mostly be attributable to the accumulation of unreported data.

January 22, 2022

U.S.A. (pop. 332,433,842)

  • CoV19 Reported Cases: 70,745,030
  • Current Reported Deaths:(CFR: 1.26%): 881,420 Estimated actual: 969,101
  • Cured: 44,111,071
  • Beta experimental: All time reported + unreported asymptomatic people maybe not sick, not immune, but possibly infectious and including the many people who have had several mild or asymptomatic infections: 358,926,462.36
  • 107.97% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (358,926,462.36) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.26% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 969,101 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is higher than what CSPaC is estimating.
Rest of the world excluding USA.
  • CoV19 Cases: 275,213,584
  • Deaths: 4,737,801 | 1.62%
  • Cured: 236,388,938
  • Reported + estimated all unreported 1,774,767,689

Note: Total statistics for the United States do not include these offshore territories. The US Military is included as if it is an offshore territory, not reported as continental USA data but as USA overall totals and included in world totals. FPMag evaluates these separately for many reasons.

TerritoryCasesDeathsRecovered
Continental US69,966,172881,420 | 1.26%43,519,810
+US Military490,202660 | 0.1%422,164
+Guam25,757276 | 1.1%19,496
+Puerto Rico 244,6193,593 | 1.47%186,926
+US Virgin Islands14,15894 | 0.7%12,608
+Northern Mariana Islands4,11821 | 0.5%3,648
+American Samoa40 | %4
Totals70,745,030886,06444,111,071

The American Epicenter including ALL Territories has 43.03 % of global 'active' cases (25,747,895 USA (incl territories) / 59,839,384 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Abundant proof that vaccines are working, an observation derived from unrelated data analysis.

As the epicenter we look at continental USA together with US territories and without. The declining CFR in the continental United States is believed to be due to vaccination rates and is abundant proof that the vaccines are working.

In order to avoid letting countries that refuse to report the sum of case recoveries, thus skewing global calculations, Ecuador, France, Netherlands, Peru, Puerto Rico, Spain and Sweden 'recoveries' are estimated based on the current reported global recoveries as a percentage of all cases. (([reported recoveries]) divide (345,958,614 [Global Reported Sum of All Cases] less 15,583,169 [France Sum of Cases] less 629,507 [Ecuador Sum of Cases] less 8,975,458 [Spain Sum of Cases] less 3,778,287 [Netherlands Sum of Cases] less 1,784,005 [Sweden Sum of Cases] less 2,780,049 [Peru Sum of Cases])) = 81% a coefficient which is then adjusted according to the number of cases in the past 30 days and the new coefficient is applied to the sum of each of these nation's cumulative cases to estimate the missing recoveries data. In the case of France some additional hospital-sourced recovery data is factored.

Reported:
All USASum of CasesDeathsRecoveredActive
Continental USA69,966,172881,42043,519,81025,564,942
USA+territories70,745,030886,06444,111,07125,747,895
Estimated:



USA+territories358,926,462.36969,101226,289,794131,656,529

See also IHME Estimates for America.

Daily cumulative cases and deaths in Canada

Daily cumulative cases and deaths in Canada. Source: Civil society Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19

253 Locales report 345,958,614 COVID-19 cases of which there are 59,839,384 active cases, therefore 280,500,009 recoveries and 5,619,221 fatalities.

GMT 2022-01-22 03:22

Data reported should be in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in each locale as their governments report daily or from time to time. All data researched and published by The RINJ Foundation and partners in CSPaC.

©The RINJ Foundation 2020-2022-01-22T03:22:09Z #Singapore-SK-HUK-77
RINJ is with Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19.

SARS2 Update 2022-01-22 03:22 GMT

  • Global Population: 7,871,660,945
  • 253 Regions reported 345,958,614 cases
  • 59,839,384 cases active
  • 5,619,221 people reported killed by COVID-19
  • 1.62% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
  • 280,500,009 survived COVID-19
Beta Technology Global Estimates
  • 22.55% of all humans (1,774,767,689) have been infected
  • 0.72% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
    (influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
  • 12,862,115 Total deaths (estimated actual) including errors, unexpected deaths with pneumonia indications with no history, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.
USA (70,745,030)
  • 107.97% of the USA may have been infected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (358,926,462.36) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.26% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 969,101 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is higher than what CSPaC is showing.
  • The American Epicenter has 43.03 % of global 'active' cases (25,747,895 USA / 59,839,384 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Below: CSPAC estimated 2022-01-21 23:00 GMT COVID-19 data for India.

EPICENTER-2: India (38,901,485)

Reported*Cases*Deaths*CFR*Recovered
India38,901,485488,9111.3%36,290,709
*Reported by India but understated.

Note: India's reported death sum and cured data are widely seen among epidemiologists and biostatisticians as unreliable. For example, 2,688,962 is CSPAC estimated sum of deaths while India reports 488,911, creating the largest discepency in the world. India might only report hospital tested cases. Sources among hundreds of nurses and other medical practitioners provide a picture that in summary concludes most cases never present in a hospital especially in northern provinces where health care is less available and utilization is low anyway because of poverty, hence most people die at home in India. This theory could explain discrepancies between reported data and algorithmic estimates.

LocaleCasesDeathsActive
India reported:38,901,485488,9112,121,865
India estimates:199,564,6182,688,96210,704,318

Data collected and reported by: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19