CSPAC reports COVID19 community transmission resurgence

“Where second boosters are being made available, families should check their member eligibility and get vaccinated and boosted as the case may be, as soon as possible, and always wear an N-95 respirator mask when around groups of people. There is trouble in the wind,” say two doctors at the Civil Society Partners against COVID-19 tracking research team in Singapore.

“Growth rate of COVID-19 cases dropped nicely but plateaued too high.  Now cases have started to climb steadily, despite lax testing efforts which means new cases are greater than they seem. This is coupled with the emergence of the BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants of Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2,” explained Dr. Harris of the CSPaC tracking team in Singapore. “We have been warning about this for a month, but now there is even stronger evidence that we are only seeing the ‘tip of the iceberg’, because of limited data collection from testing and tracing,” he added.

  1. Vaccination and previous infections will not prevent SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants infection but booster shots prevent serious outcomes for most patients, reports the Civil Society Partners against COVID-19 tracking research lab in Singapore and other research groups.
  2. Three subvariants (the BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5) attack the lungs and while having strong transmission capabilities are also likely to be as potentially morbid as the Alpha and Delta variants. This has been a long-time feared combination: high transmission and high lethality. But increasing vaccination levels (full vaccination plus one or more boosters) can lessen the severity of an outbreak say numerous scientific studies. “Being up to date on your COVID-19 vaccines ensures you have the best protection possible against severe illness, hospitalization, and death,” is what senior health officials are saying in Wisconsin, and their track record for saving lives has been very good.
  3. Community transmission is slowly approaching 1 million cases per day,  reports the Civil Society Partners against COVID-19 tracking research team in Singapore.
  4. Reinfection by one of these subvariants will likely cause a course of illness of increasing severity. For example, the USA has an infection saturation today of 144.6% of its population which implies that reinfection is having serious implications in the United States and will drive up mortality if the BA.4 and BA.5 spread at the same rate as the root SARS2 variant known as Omicron.

But the good news is that vaccine boosters are providing massive improvements in immunity to severe outcomes from Omicron.

Vaccine boosters are increasing antibodies as much as 85% according to a scientific evaluation of nursing home populations.

“A new study found that Omicron-specific antibodies reached detectable levels in 86% of nursing home residents and 93% of healthcare workers after receiving the booster shot, compared to just 28% of nursing home residents and healthcare workers after the initial two-dose COVID-19 vaccine series,” says the Science Daily report.

Additional reading:

Individual nation reports from around the globe and current biostatistical data indicate a certain level of pandemic trouble ahead.

India’s daily COVID-19 climb crossed the 17,336 for the first time over 17k in over 120 days.

The Philippines is looking at steady increases in new cases but testing is at the absolute minimum level. It is suspected by health caregivers that cases are much higher than reported.

In the New England States of the USA, BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants of Omicron are spreading.

Reinfection Prevention is Crucial suggests new study

A yet to be peer-reviewed study indicates that reinfections, which are at a very high rate in the USA, brings an increasingly grave risk of severe outcomes including death.

“The constellation of findings show that reinfection adds non-trivial risks of all-cause mortality, hospitalization, and adverse health outcomes in the acute and post-acute phase of the reinfection. Reducing overall burden of death and disease due to SARS-CoV-2 will require strategies for reinfection prevention.” Citing: Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection

Global daily cases are climbing steadily despite only modest testing.

Graph: Global daily cases are climbing steadily despite only modest testing.
Source CSPaC.

14 Apr 2024 COVID-19 Data for The Entire World from CSPaC

Source for above data: CSPaC.