Canada failing to stop COVID-19 spread as world cases drop. Why?



While the global number of new COVID-19 cases and deaths dropped, since the end of March 2022, Canada has seen the opposite happening as cases rose and hospitalizations roughly doubled in the same period, as indicated in the following graph.

In one month, COVID-19 hospitalizations in Canada have increased 3,033 beds.

In one month, COVID-19 hospitalizations in Canada have increased 3,033 beds. Source: Civil Society Partners against COVID-19

 

“Quebec and Ontario provinces in Canada are both doing an excellent job of data reporting but have little to work with in the way of test results. Both provinces have seen an alarming rise in hospitalizations which is the most profound indicator of COVID-19 community spread,” says infectious disease researcher Dr. Kathy Poon in Singapore.

“The COVID-19 case and death count numbers are almost meaningless in Canada because insufficient testing and genomic monitoring is being done.  There are nearly 7,000 persons in Canadian hospitals needing treatment for COVID-19 and a certain percentage of those persons will die according to historical statistical data compiled for the Omicron variant and its subvariants—and one death is too many,” explained Dr. Fred Harris, team lead of the Civil Society Partners against COVID-19 infectious disease tracking team in Singapore.

“We all need to fight to save every life we can by masking-up and getting vaccinated to the current standards,” said Dr. Harris during a brief interview for the new data and this report.

“Wearing an N-95 mask or equivalent standard is indicated by massive amounts of globally collected data, hence the Canadian Ministry of Health is completely wrong in its political position and alleged assessment of respirators not being indicated. If they were not indicated medical practitioners in hospitals would be bare faced and eventually dead or deathly ill. That simple. Moreover, exposure to the airborne spread of Omicron can only be averted by small particle filtering face pieces. Luck does not figure into this equation,” said the seasoned biostatisticians.

N95 Masks save lives Says the CDC

According to the CDC, well-fitting N95s are the most protective, followed by KN95s. The use of respirators (N95/KN95) is recommended to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 according to the US Centers for Disease Control. CDC findings are consistent with existing research demonstrating that respirators effectively filter viruses in laboratory settings and with ecological studies showing reductions in SARS-CoV-2 incidence associated with community-level masking requirements. While this study evaluated the protective effects of mask or respirator use in reducing the risk the wearer acquires SARS-CoV-2 infection, a previous evaluation estimated the additional benefits of masking for source control, and found that wearing face masks or respirators in the context of exposure to a person with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with similar reductions in risk for infection. Strengths of the current study include use of a clinical endpoint of SARS-CoV-2 test result, and applicability to a general population sample.


Hospitalization data shows an alarming climb nearing the 7,000 mark with regional fluctuations. “This crisis is not over,” warn experts.

All time hospitalizations for COVID-19.

All time hospitalizations for COVID-19. Source: Civil Society Partners against COVID-19

Canada is not doing very well under this political N95 SNAFU but Canadian-Made N95s are among the best and most reliable in the world.

How many of the 58,734 total estimated Canadian deaths due to COVID-19 could have been prevented with the wearing of N-95 masks?

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

58,734 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

“This pandemic is not over,” but when we see three months of little change in case counts and deaths, we can talk about that,” said Dr. Harris.

“If you can still breathe, don’t come here,” one elderly Montreal male was told. The patient has at least three comorbid underlying chronic illnesses but when he explained his symptoms (difficulty breathing, coughing, excessive weakness, general malaise, abdominal agony), he was told to “stay home and drink fluids, we have no beds,” say exasperated workers.


Be Kind Always

Let’s face it. We’re all tired of this pandemic. For many of us it has been the most confusing, anxiety-provoking time of our lives. It sometimes leaves us short tempered and frustrated. Public health staff, however, should not be on the receiving end of your anger.


Cumulative Case counts in Canada are in a steady climb.

Canada COVID19 Cumulative Case Sums continue to climb steadily.

Canada COVID-19 Cumulative Case Sums continue to climb steadily. Source: Civil Society Partners against COVID-19

October 2, 2022 COVID-19 Data for Canada from CSPaC

Population: 38,749,252 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:4,259,37045,180 1.06% CFR4,166,86947,321
Estimate:23,554,31658,734 *0.25% IFR23,042,786261,685

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:45,1801.064,259,3704,166,86947,321
* Quebec16,7171.401,193,9641,163,98213,265
Ontario14,3420.981,459,3531,428,79816,213
Alberta4,8720.80605,757594,1556,730
BC4,2531.11384,266375,7444,269
Manitoba2,1431.43149,622145,8171,662
Sask1,5071.05143,747140,6431,597
NB4760.6276,31674,992848
Nova Scotia5180.42123,549121,6581,373
NL2350.4651,44650,639572
* PEI570.1151,41050,782571
Yukon310.634,8854,80054
NWT220.1911,51111,361128
Nunavut70.203,5313,48539
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals45,1801.064,259,3704,166,86947,321

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec and * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 23,554,316 (60.79% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-09-30 are estimated to be 58,886 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

58,886 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

58734 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 58734 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District9,647650.7%9,417165
Brant County13,058980.8%12,819141
Chatham-Kent9,7521001.0%9,532120
Hamilton65,3946080.9%64,108678
Ottawa81,9858861.1%80,397702
Durham Region67,6015100.8%66,648443
Eastern Ontario17,9522431.4%17,473236
Grey Bruce9,925790.8%9,705141
Haldimand-Norfolk9,618921.0%9,43690
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge10,8191261.2%10,550143
Halton Region53,4273510.7%52,710366
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties12,340840.7%11,849407
Huron Perth8,3261251.5%8,078123
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington20,403790.4%19,968356
Lambton County12,9421511.2%12,636155
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District11,2831141.0%10,878291
Middlesex-London42,8044451.0%41,850509
Niagara Region45,7935731.3%44,829391
North Bay Parry Sound District7,509620.8%7,306141
Northwestern12,273360.3%12,067170
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas15,7641831.2%15,245336
Peel Region196,4991,4270.7%193,9381,134
Peterborough County-City8,8061001.1%8,517189
Porcupine8,247770.9%8,09674
Renfrew County And District5,920631.1%5,733124
Simcoe Muskoka District51,0014861.0%50,016499
Sudbury And District18,1421680.9%17,651323
Thunder Bay District15,5151170.8%15,099299
Timiskaming2,345251.1%2,27446
Toronto350,7914,3961.3%344,3242,071
Waterloo Region50,9374730.9%50,118346
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph24,5281750.7%24,127226
Windsor-Essex County48,1526691.4%46,901582
York Region121,9451,0930.9%120,078774
Last Updated: 2022-09-30 Time 17:09:24 GMT. Source: CSPaC