Canada COVID-19 Hospitalizations headed for trouble says data

Canada has broken the 3.5 million COVID-19 Cumulative Case record (3,564,741). The reported data is deceptive because it is under reported. Hospitalizations growth, however, sounds a deadly warning. A surge in deaths is ahead.

Canada has an estimated 163k active cases. Total actual deaths in Canada exceed 57K. For more data, visit Canada COVID-19 Cases

Canada COVID-19 Sum of Cumulative Cases now rising steadily

Canada COVID-19 Sum of Cumulative Cases now rising steadily Last Updated: 2022-04-10 Time 03:12:31 GMT. Source: Source: Civil Society Partners against COVID-19

Canadian Hospitalizations continue steady climb, higher than all records for 2020 and 2021

Canadian Hospitalizations continue on a steady climb, higher than all records for 2020 and 2021. Last Updated: 2022-04-10 Time 03:12:31 GMT. Source: Source: Civil Society Partners against COVID-19

Get vaccinated and Wear an N-95 mask when going out, say global COVID-19 infectious disease researchers and data analysts.

The  Civil Society Partners against COVID-19 infectious disease researchers in Singapore have assembled significant statistical data on the use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE).

“Among medical workers, the most effective PPE has been among those health workers wearing a NIOSH-approved particulate filtering facepiece respirator N95 with a medical face shield report zero cases of COVID-19,” explained interning doctor Kathy Poon.

“Some participants wore N-99s. That is the ultimate best scenario but the N-99 is not very comfortable for doing strenuous activity. The face shield provides protection for the eyes and enhances the use of an N-95. Remove the face shield and a tiny  percentage of that population has become infected, probably because of an error in hand hygiene,” she added.

“Wearing a cloth mask is a complete waste of effort, against Omicron,” says Dr. Poon. “That is likely also true of wearing a fake respirator although a very rare few work well. Wear a NIOSH certified N-95 or equivalent respirator mask to block the tiny particles of Omicron from the lungs and upper airways,” Dr. Poon added.

“Fake masks have no writing on them and do not have the NIOSH stamp. Ear loop masks do not provide a proper fit. N95 masks do not have ear loops!”

Most KN-95 masks offered for sale online are counterfeit according to CSPaC research.

“When comparing a surgical mask with head ties vs a procedure mask with ear loops, there was a large difference in fitted filtration efficiencies (FFEs) (71.5% v 38.1%, respectively).1 Even more worrying, there was also a similar trend of poor FFE performance for N95 respirators designed with ear loops vs those with head straps. The bottom 6 FFE-performing N95 respirators in their Table 11 results used ear loops to hold the mask in place on the user’s face, and they all had less than 90% FFE.1 The FFE performance of surgical masks secured with head ties within 1 SD would have a range of 66% to 77%. This would overlap with the FFE performance of 4 out of the 6 bottom N95 respirators secured using ear loops (within 1 SD).1 Currently, N95 respirators are usually prioritized for high-risk exposures, including when performing aerosol-generating procedures, and these findings show that health care workers using N95 respirators secured with ear loops may not have better protection than those using a surgical mask secured with head ties.” Citing Poor Performance of Masks Secured Using Ear Loops

“Two brands stand out for Canada, 3M and Kimberly Clark.  Most respirators sold online are fake. Below is some help. The N95 standard is set by the USA and adopted by Canada and most other countries around the world. China (KN95), South Korea (KF94)  and the European Union (FFP2)  have unique standards and the masks that meet those standards are excellent,” explains intern Poon

NIOSH-Approved Particulate Filtering Facepiece Respirators

Industrial N95Filters at least 95% of airborne particles.

N95 Manufacturers  Index: 3M   A  B  C  D  E  F  G  H  I  J  K  L  M  N  O  P  Q  R  S  T  U  V  W  X  Y  Z

Surgical N95 RespiratorA NIOSH-approved N95 respirator that has also been cleared by the USA Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as a surgical mask as well as a Particulate Filtering Facepiece Respirator.

The following video shows readers how to don and doff a respirator mask.

Subvariants and Recombinant Variations are scientific curiosities. It’s all Omicron

Think of Omicron subvariants as being “Omicron”. Recombinant variants like the XE are scientific curiosities but nothing more than confusion for the general public. None of these virus particles are pathogens one wants in their body.  Subvariants of Omicron may be refined in their ability to effect community spread. There are no innocuous variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Those which are less fatal have greater rates of spread, hence they kill many people because they infect many more people,” explained Dr. Poon.

Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 infected human bronchus tissues.

Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 (in red) infected human bronchus tissues. Credit: Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong. The research was conducted by a team led by Dr Michael Chan Chi-wai, Associate Professor, School of Public Health, HKUMed and Principal Investigator, C2i, HKSTP. The research team included Dr Kenrie Hui Pui-yan, Assistant Professor; Professor Malik Peiris, Tam Wah-Ching Professor in Medical Science and Chair Professor of Virology, Professor Leo Poon Lit-man, School of Public Health, HKUMed; and Professor John Nicholls, Clinical Professor, Department of Pathology, HKUMed.

Canadian Hospitalizations continue steady climb, higher than all records for 2020 and 2021

“CSPAC is not suggesting government vaccine and other mitigation mandates however any organization  which assembles people together in groups like airlines, sports events, concert venues, eating establishments and certain work environments might be insisting on mask and vaccine requirements, especially now during a sixth surge in community spread,” said Dr. Fred Harris, biostatistician and infectious disease researcher of the CSPaC tracking team in Singapore.

“People need to use their own judgement about assembling their family with groups of people outside their family during the sixth surge in community spread of SARS-CoV-2. Omicron is killing the unvaccinated mostly but its impact on children, is worrisome. Long term effects are also a concern for all family members, ” said Dr. Harris.

Ontario Regional PHU COVID-19 Case Counts

Ontario Regional PHU COVID-19 Case Counts Last Updated: 2022-04-10 Time 02:44:36 GMT. Source: Source: Civil Society Partners against COVID-19

October 2, 2022 COVID-19 Data for Canada from CSPaC

Population: 38,749,252 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Reported:4,259,37045,180 1.06% CFR4,166,86947,321
Estimate:23,554,31658,734 *0.25% IFR23,042,786261,685

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:45,1801.064,259,3704,166,86947,321
* Quebec16,7171.401,193,9641,163,98213,265
Nova Scotia5180.42123,549121,6581,373
* PEI570.1151,41050,782571
Sub Totals45,1801.064,259,3704,166,86947,321

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec and * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 23,554,316 (60.79% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-09-30 are estimated to be 58,886 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

58,886 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

58734 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 58734 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.

Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District9,647650.7%9,417165
Brant County13,058980.8%12,819141
Durham Region67,6015100.8%66,648443
Eastern Ontario17,9522431.4%17,473236
Grey Bruce9,925790.8%9,705141
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge10,8191261.2%10,550143
Halton Region53,4273510.7%52,710366
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties12,340840.7%11,849407
Huron Perth8,3261251.5%8,078123
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington20,403790.4%19,968356
Lambton County12,9421511.2%12,636155
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District11,2831141.0%10,878291
Niagara Region45,7935731.3%44,829391
North Bay Parry Sound District7,509620.8%7,306141
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas15,7641831.2%15,245336
Peel Region196,4991,4270.7%193,9381,134
Peterborough County-City8,8061001.1%8,517189
Renfrew County And District5,920631.1%5,733124
Simcoe Muskoka District51,0014861.0%50,016499
Sudbury And District18,1421680.9%17,651323
Thunder Bay District15,5151170.8%15,099299
Waterloo Region50,9374730.9%50,118346
Windsor-Essex County48,1526691.4%46,901582
York Region121,9451,0930.9%120,078774
Last Updated: 2022-09-30 Time 17:09:24 GMT. Source: CSPaC