Worrisome Pandemic Trends are now global. The hard data



Biostatistician Fred Harris in Singapore, for the  Civil society Partners against COVID19,  just slammed down on several key points, including masking despite vaccination, in a zoom conference with fellow trackers.


Weekend news update by Micheal John and Melissa Hemingway


“A more robust effort is needed to combat the current scourge against the human race,” says Mr. Harris.

“Getting children back to school is a high priority. Children are winning the fight against the virus but they need to be in school,” he added.

“People must start wearing proper FFP. Suck it up and buy them from China or Europe online, but wear a proper mask properly, no matter how many vaccinations one has had,” he urged.

“Respirators of the FFP2 (EU standards class) and N95 (US standards class) offer maximum filtration of particles and aerosols, said Harris. “But I also like the Korean and Chinese equivalents, They have different standards for breathability and are among the most sought after in Asia.”

“We have built our own test rigs here in Singapore and I can safely say that all of the masks I refer to complete the functions they promise if they are properly worn after being fit-tested.”

“And why are not the USA and Britain providing better production and more vaccines to other countries around the world as Russia and China have been doing? Vaccine nationalism is now a more dangerous pandemic.


 

Peacekeepers in ZImbabwe get Chhina Vaccine gift.

Peacekeepers in Zimbabwe get Vaccines from China.
The first batch of Chinese-donated COVID-19 vaccine doses is unloaded from a plane at Robert Mugabe International Airport in Harare, Zimbabwe on Feb. 15, 2021. [Photo/Xinhua]
A spokesperson with China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) said on Friday that by providing vaccine aid, China will continue to work with all parties to make new contributions to the global fight against the pandemic of COVID-19.
CIDCA spokesperson Tian Lin said China is providing or will provide vaccine aid to 80 countries and three international organizations. And for some countries that really have difficulties, China also provides syringes to facilitate their use of the vaccines. “The aid is being delivered in a timely and orderly manner.”
Tian said the scope of vaccine aid covers 26 Asian countries, 34 African countries, four countries in Europe, 10 in America, and six in Oceania, adding that China is also providing vaccine aid to the African Union, the Arab League and UN peacekeepers.
Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag
Photo Credit: Xinhua

Biden COVID-Successes are a beacon to the world. It can be done.

China and Russia have been donating vaccines internationally before fully vaccinating their own populations, meanwhile America and other wealthy democracies have prioritized their own domestic efforts, ignoring the world.  “Democracies are donating cash, and autocracies or autocratizing nations are donating doses,” Tom Bollyky, a senior at the Council of Foreign Relations  said.

“The strategy of providing cash can send the message that democracies have not handled the pandemic well at home or abroad,” he told at a US House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing Thursday.

 


Take a look at the hard data from the  Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19

America is improving

Improvements in America are overshadowed by the fact that the numbers are still colossal. Acve cases have plummeted, however. Graph and data source: Civil society Partners against COVID19

July 1, 2022

U.S.A. (pop. 332,803,287)

  • CoV19 Reported Cases: 88,950,302
  • Current Reported Deaths:(CFR: 1.18%): 1,036,895 CSPaC.net estimated actual: 1,311,400
  • Cured: 84,916,391
  • Beta experimental: All time reported + unreported asymptomatic people maybe not sick, not immune, but possibly infectious and including the many people who have had several mild or asymptomatic infections: 485,703,726.76
  • 145.94% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (485,703,726.76) human infections, some of which may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.18% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 1,311,400 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is estimating.
Rest of the world excluding USA.
  • CoV19 Cases: 463,507,486
  • Deaths: 5,341,092 | 1.15%
  • Cured: 444,163,208
  • Reported + estimated all unreported 3,055,091,567

Note: Total statistics for the United States do not include these offshore territories. The US Military is included as if it is an offshore territory, not reported as continental USA data but as USA overall totals and included in world totals. FPMag evaluates these separately for many reasons.

TerritoryCasesDeathsRecovered
Continental US87,830,6921,036,895 | 1.18%84,201,622
+US Military665,332688 | 0.1%631,857
+Guam51,769371 | 0.7%50,768
+Puerto Rico 363,4374,571 | 1.26%332,285
+US Virgin Islands20,899118 | 0.6%20,555
+Northern Mariana Islands11,75935 | 0.3%11,589
+American Samoa6,41431 | 0.5%5,958
Totals88,950,3021,042,67884,916,391

The American Epicenter including ALL Territories has 17.60 % of global 'active' cases (2,991,233 USA (incl territories) / 17,000,202 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Abundant proof that vaccines are working, an observation derived from unrelated data analysis.

As the epicenter we look at continental USA together with US territories and without. The significant decline in Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the continental United States particularly, during 2 0 2 1, since vaccines became available, is believed to be due to vaccination rates and is abundant proof that the vaccines are working.

In order to avoid letting countries that refuse to report the sum of case recoveries, thus skewing global calculations, Burundi, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Britain, most provinces of Canada, Ecuador, FaeroeIslands, Falklands, Finland, France, French Polynesia, Hong Kong, Iceland, Mongolia, Laos, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Ukraine, South Korea, Tunisia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Spain and Sweden 'recoveries' are estimated based on the current reported global recoveries as a percentage of all cases. (([reported recoveries]) divide (552,457,788 [Global Reported Sum of All Cases] less 30,161,714 [France Sum of Cases] less 909,882 [Ecuador Sum of Cases] less 12,734,038 [Spain Sum of Cases] less 8,190,255 [Netherlands Sum of Cases] less 2,519,199 [Sweden Sum of Cases] less 3,625,091 [Peru Sum of Cases])) = 96% a coefficient which is then adjusted according to the number of cases in the past 30 days and the new coefficient is applied to the sum of each of these nation's cumulative cases to estimate the missing recoveries data. In the case of France some additional hospital-sourced recovery data is factored.

Reported:
All USASum of CasesDeathsRecoveredActive
Continental USA87,830,6921,036,89584,201,6222,592,175
USA+territories88,950,3021,042,67884,916,391 2,991,233
Estimated:



USA+territories485,703,726.761,311,400469,587,64214,814,781

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

See also IHME Estimates for America.

 

Canada

Canada dropped its Case Fatality Rate and its active cases, now they rise fairly steeply. “A third Wave” says the Premiere of Ontario. Graph and data source: Civil society Partners against COVID19

Canada daily cases

Canada’s daily data. Focused on deaths and active cases. Graph and data source: Civil society Partners against COVID19

 

July 1, 2022

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:3,954,26241,992 1.06% CFR3,868,34043,930
Estimate:21,867,06954,589 *0.25% IFR21,391,920242,933

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:41,9921.063,954,2623,868,34043,930
* Quebec15,5891.431,090,3111,062,60912,113
Ontario13,4781.001,342,7091,314,31414,917
Alberta4,6210.78588,691577,5306,540
BC3,7471.00374,594366,6854,162
Manitoba2,0431.40145,498141,8391,616
Sask1,3951.00138,992136,0531,544
First Nations7420.67110,651108,6801,229
NB4210.6366,34565,187737
Nova Scotia4210.4299,51497,9871,106
NL1870.4046,64745,942518
* PEI350.0940,80640,318453
Yukon260.584,4764,40050
* NWT220.1812,13511,978135
Nunavut70.203,5313,48539
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals41,9921.063,954,2623,868,34043,930

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,867,069 (56.44% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-07-01 are estimated to be 54,668 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,668 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54589 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54589 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District8,619580.7%8,48180
Brant County11,922830.7%11,76673
Chatham-Kent8,850941.1%8,70551
Hamilton59,3185741.0%58,297447
Ottawa75,0478201.1%73,539688
Durham Region63,3244960.8%62,469359
Eastern Ontario16,1592191.4%15,85387
Grey Bruce8,905690.8%8,80036
Haldimand-Norfolk8,848840.9%8,72044
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge9,5471111.2%9,35977
Halton Region49,8943270.7%49,230337
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties10,447630.6%10,29589
Huron Perth7,4551111.5%7,31232
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington17,653600.3%17,430163
Lambton County11,9451461.2%11,75346
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District9,6591061.1%9,411142
Middlesex-London38,7144071.1%38,053254
Niagara Region41,6955491.3%40,944202
North Bay Parry Sound District6,163440.7%6,07346
Northwestern9,831220.2%9,478331
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas14,0531691.2%13,79985
Peel Region187,0891,3620.7%184,872855
Peterborough County-City7,655811.1%7,51361
Porcupine7,461690.9%7,33953
Renfrew County And District4,854511.1%4,76637
Simcoe Muskoka District46,8464380.9%46,116292
Sudbury And District15,6191511.0%15,331137
Thunder Bay District13,027980.8%12,764165
Timiskaming1,989241.2%1,9596
Toronto326,4594,2731.3%319,9742,212
Waterloo Region46,9804230.9%46,287270
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph22,5521620.7%22,254136
Windsor-Essex County44,3606351.4%43,533192
York Region113,4551,0420.9%111,529884
Last Updated: 2022-07-01 Time 15:23:28 GMT. Source: CSPaC

 

Philippines dailies

Cases in the Philippines are skyrocketing even though testing is at near global minimum performances. Graph and data source: Civil society Partners against COVID19

July 1, 2022

Here are the reported and estimated Philippines data.

PhilippinesCasesDeathsActive
Philippines reported:3,705,64960,5658,706
Philippines estimates:20,492,239137,79148,144

Read:Human right to claim your free vaccination in the Philippines

Philippines COVID-19 Incipient Danger Zone

Also: Philippines 50M COVID-dead is case for Vaccination

  • Country: Philippines (pop 112,533,202,)
  • Reported COVID-19 Cases: 3,705,649
  • Reported sum of Deaths: 60,565 (estimated:137,791)
  • Reported Cured: 3,636,378
  • Beta: Estimated total cases including reported plus estimated mild and asymptomatic: 20,492,239 Cases and Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = 0.67 %. (Reported deaths and CFR are not accurate)
  • 137,791 (0.1224% of population) Total deaths (CSPaC.net estimated actual) including errors and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

Data collected and reported by: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19


Global active cases

Top 25 active case countries Global active cases. Graph and data source: Civil society Partners against COVID19

July 1, 2022

SARS2 Update 2022-07-01 T:16:16 GMT

  • 254 Regions reported 552,457,788 cases
  • 17,000,202 cases active
  • 6,377,987 people reported killed by COVID-19
  • 1.15% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
  • 529,079,599 survived COVID-19

Beta Technology Global Estimates

EPICENTER: USA (87,830,692)

  • 145.94% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (485,703,726.76) human infections, some of which may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.18% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 1,311,400 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is showing.

Global CFR Comparison of those countries having more than 250,000 cumulative cases.

Global CFR Comparison of those countries having more than 250,000 cumulative cases. Graph and data source: Civil society Partners against COVID19

July 1, 2022

254 Locales report 552,457,788 COVID-19 cases of which there are 17,000,202 active cases, therefore 529,079,599 recoveries and 6,377,987 fatalities.

GMT 2022-07-01 15:23

Data reported should be in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in each locale as their governments report daily or from time to time. All data researched and published by The RINJ Foundation and partners in CSPaC.

©The RINJ Foundation 2020-2022-07-01T15:23:28Z #Singapore-SK-HUK-77
RINJ is with Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19.

SARS2 Update 2022-07-01 15:23 GMT

  • Global Population: 7,903,501,966
  • 254 Regions reported 552,457,788 cases
  • 17,000,202 cases active
  • 6,377,987 people reported killed by COVID-19
  • 1.15% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
  • 529,079,599 survived COVID-19
Beta Technology Global Estimates
  • 38.65% of all humans (3,055,091,567) have been infected
  • 0.63% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
    (influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
  • 19,127,264 Total deaths (CSPaC.net estimated actual) including errors, unexpected deaths with pneumonia indications with no history, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

USA (88,950,302)
  • 145.94% of the USA may have been infected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (485,703,726.76) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.18% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 1,311,400 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is showing.
  • See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

    The American Epicenter has 17.60 % of global 'active' cases (2,991,233 USA / 17,000,202 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Below: CSPAC estimated 2022-07-01 15:18 GMT COVID-19 data for India.

EPICENTER-2: India (43,471,282)

Reported*Cases*Deaths*CFR*Recovered
India43,471,282525,1391.2%42,836,906
*Reported by India but understated.

Note: India's reported death sum and cured data are widely seen among epidemiologists and biostatisticians as unreliable. For example, 3,045,754 is CSPAC estimated sum of deaths while India reports 525,139, creating the largest discepency in the world. India might only report hospital tested cases. Sources among hundreds of nurses and other medical practitioners provide a picture that in summary concludes most cases never present in a hospital especially in northern provinces where health care is less available and utilization is low anyway because of poverty, hence most people die at home in India. This theory could explain discrepancies between reported data and algorithmic estimates.

LocaleCasesDeathsActive
India reported:43,471,282525,139109,237
India estimates:240,396,1893,045,754462,344

Data collected and reported by: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19

Highest cumulative case counts

Highest cumulative case counts. Graph and data source: Civil society Partners against COVID19