Canada becomes a model nation proving 2-dose vaccines work

After experiencing a horrific surge in COVID-19 cases in this past spring, Canada has upped the rate of vaccination hence dropping the number of daily deaths and active infections.

The one thing that has changed about Canadians’ behaviour, according to statistical evidence across Canada, is that Canadians are getting vaccinated in droves.

by Sharon Santiago and Micheal John

Video: How do vaccines work in Canada and around the world with Canadian Professor Noni MacDonald at Dalhousie University

“Canadians will need to increase their 23% full vaccinated level very fast because even this Sunday we are beginning to see early evidence of big trouble ahead from the B.1.617.2.1 variant and its root, the Delta variant,” explained Dr. Fred Harris, a biostatistician and infectious disease researcher in Singapore with the CSPAC  group.

“Around the world, COVID-19 case sums and deaths are reported lower than actual for a number of reasons, particularly because its nearly impossible to know exactly in real time the number of unreported and asymptomatic cases,” said Dr. Harris.

Epidemiologists working with biostatisticians,” Dr. Harris continued, “are able to computerize mathematical equations that help estimate these actual numbers before the final data is finally calculated long after the pandemic is over. Even then, much data will rely in estimates.”

“Canada’s data are among the closest to actual estimates calculated by the IHME and CSPAC estimated COVID-19 computer-modelled sum of cases (in Canada: 15,182,230 as of January 26, 2022), estimated sum of deaths (Canada: 53,036 as of January 26, 2022), and the actual estimated current active cases (Canada:  1,166,916 as of January 26, 2022).

“What this information tells us is how and why surges can take place and what must be done and where, to end the pandemic,” he said.

“Huge numbers of people may become infected by SARS-CoV-2 variants and while never being reported and treated, are likely infecting a higher number of cases than hospitalized patients.

“The unknown infections in developing nations are the greatest obstacle to ending this SARS-CoV-2-caused Pandemic. Everyone must be vaccinated,” noted the scientist.

Percentage of Canadian population vaccinated with at least one dose as of 22 June 2021

COVID-19 Vaccination Rates in Canada

Percentage of the Canadian population vaccinated with at least one dose as of 22 June 2021,  COVID-19 Vaccination Rates in Canada Graph By Nsophiay – CC BY-SA 4.0

“In those countries where the difference between reported cases and the scientifically estimated cases by science groups like the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the gap is substantial.

“India is such a case where the underreported data are staggering. Cases, deaths and what scientists call the “R-nought” or R0 factor are grossly under reported in India,” he said.

“This causes huge vagaries in global calculations because the numbers are so far from reality. India admittedly only calculates and reports hospitalized cases, and even then, in a scanty fashion, according to a consensus among epidemiologists who rely on India’s regional data from traditional sources like hospitals, mortuaries, coroners and medical professionals, not to mention the thousands of bodies floating in rivers, which in total exceed what is reported,” continued the biostatistician.

In Canada, Vaccinations have reduced the reported COVID-19 Active Cases nearly in half over ten days in Canada despite Delta variant spread. Sum of deaths trend almost flatlines.

Canada Graph highlights past ten days proving Vaccines Work

Canada Graph highlights past ten days proving Vaccines Work
Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

FPMag asked for an explanation of the graphs

“This is very interesting,” said Harris.

“Thousands of Canadians have in many respects acted in a cavalier fashion, trying to lead people into the streets to protest against mask wearing and quarantine measures. Well, they became infected in large numbers. Those large numbers infected many more people. Canada was in a mess as one can see from the two major humps in the graph,” he explained.

“So, why is this important? Because while the government was having a hard time controlling so-called freedom-of-speech exercises, public disobedience, and superspreader events, it slammed down hard on educating the population on the safety requirement of getting vaccinated against the SARS2. Ottawa pushed the provincial governments to get the job done.

“At first cases continued to rise, but the illnesses lasted shorter periods and the case fatality rate plummeted. Then everything dropped as the vaccination levels rose.”

Here is the vaccination data for 26 June 2021.

  • Vaccine doses administered: 34,174,571
  • Fully vaccinated: 23.3%
  • Received at least one dose: 67.25%

Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19


Canada proves Vaccines Work

Canada proves Vaccines Work — Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

Approved vaccines according to Canada health department

  1. Moderna COVID-19 vaccine
  2. Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine
  3. AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD COVID-19 vaccine
  4. Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) COVID-19 vaccine

Source: Government of Canada

Types of vaccines used by Canadians

Source: Government of Canada

Full vaccination is needed. Evidence from the United Kingdom about two of the above vaccines used in both countries are efficacious against some of the worst variants.

  • “The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses
  • “the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses,” says the report from the study.

Public Health England reports, “The analysis included 14,019 cases of the Delta variant—166 of whom were hospitalised—between 12 April and 4 June, looking at emergency hospital admissions in England.”

Read if you like, the preliminary findings: Preprint of the Effectiveness-of-COVID-19-vaccines-against-hospital-admission-with-the-Delta-B_1_617_2variant

Here is a ‘public disobedience and superspreader‘ event like those Dr. Harris speaks about.

Population: 38,585,269 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Reported:2,959,49932,860 1.11% CFR2,699,170227,469
Estimate:15,182,23053,036 *0.35% IFR13,846,7421,166,916

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:32,8601.112,959,4992,699,170227,469
First Nations5930.8966,84060,7905,457
Nova Scotia1280.3735,05130,4504,473
Sub Totals32,8601.112,959,4992,699,170227,469

Note: Above is region/county Health Unit reports. First Nations data is monitored uniquely but included in provincial totals.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 15,182,230 (39.35% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.35%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-01-26 are estimated to be 53,138 Using estimated IFR of 0.35% which is far below global average IFR.

53,138 (0.35% IFR) is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

53036 Is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 53036 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Province differ significantly from the data reported by individual Public Health Units. CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit. CSPaC has heard the explanation from the province that data is reassigned from one PHU to another based on patient location. That means that patients are taken to the nearest available hospital and not necessarily to a medical facility in their own Public Health Region.

Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District3,379230.7%2,771585
Brant County8,940540.6%8,101785
Durham Region48,8954080.8%45,0983,389
Eastern Ontario12,0601761.5%10,8211,063
Grey Bruce5,193390.8%4,892262
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge5,787751.3%4,990722
Halton Region39,1192750.7%36,6702,174
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties5,479310.6%4,832616
Huron Perth4,868811.7%4,397390
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington8,355310.4%7,855469
Lambton County8,4291031.2%7,471855
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District5,313731.4%4,674566
Niagara Region30,3174721.6%27,6182,227
North Bay Parry Sound District2,603110.4%2,363229
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas9,7991341.4%8,833832
Peel Region162,2871,0660.7%153,2188,003
Peterborough County-City4,747420.9%4,247458
Renfrew County And District2,612200.8%2,280312
Simcoe Muskoka District30,5923211.0%28,0112,260
Sudbury And District8,552780.9%7,1391,335
Thunder Bay District6,297741.2%5,398825
Waterloo Region37,1123410.9%34,0092,762
Windsor-Essex County33,3165461.6%30,5532,217
York Region92,9979461.0%88,6453,406
Last Updated: 2022-01-26 Time 10:26:34 GMT. Source: CSPaC

Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19