Canada becomes a model nation proving 2-dose vaccines work

After experiencing a horrific surge in COVID-19 cases in this past spring, Canada has upped the rate of vaccination hence dropping the number of daily deaths and active infections.

The one thing that has changed about Canadians’ behaviour, according to statistical evidence across Canada, is that Canadians are getting vaccinated in droves.

by Sharon Santiago and Micheal John

Video: How do vaccines work in Canada and around the world with Canadian Professor Noni MacDonald at Dalhousie University

“Canadians will need to increase their 23% full vaccinated level very fast because even this Sunday we are beginning to see early evidence of big trouble ahead from the B.1.617.2.1 variant and its root, the Delta variant,” explained Dr. Fred Harris, a biostatistician and infectious disease researcher in Singapore with the CSPAC  group.

“Around the world, COVID-19 case sums and deaths are reported lower than actual for a number of reasons, particularly because its nearly impossible to know exactly in real time the number of unreported and asymptomatic cases,” said Dr. Harris.

Epidemiologists working with biostatisticians,” Dr. Harris continued, “are able to computerize mathematical equations that help estimate these actual numbers before the final data is finally calculated long after the pandemic is over. Even then, much data will rely in estimates.”

“Canada’s data are among the closest to actual estimates calculated by the IHME and CSPAC estimated COVID-19 computer-modelled sum of cases (in Canada: 21,833,469 as of June 29, 2022), estimated sum of deaths (Canada: 54,464 as of June 29, 2022), and the actual estimated current active cases (Canada:  295,363 as of June 29, 2022).

“What this information tells us is how and why surges can take place and what must be done and where, to end the pandemic,” he said.

“Huge numbers of people may become infected by SARS-CoV-2 variants and while never being reported and treated, are likely infecting a higher number of cases than hospitalized patients.

“The unknown infections in developing nations are the greatest obstacle to ending this SARS-CoV-2-caused Pandemic. Everyone must be vaccinated,” noted the scientist.

Percentage of Canadian population vaccinated with at least one dose as of 22 June 2021

COVID-19 Vaccination Rates in Canada

Percentage of the Canadian population vaccinated with at least one dose as of 22 June 2021,  COVID-19 Vaccination Rates in Canada Graph By Nsophiay – CC BY-SA 4.0

“In those countries where the difference between reported cases and the scientifically estimated cases by science groups like the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the gap is substantial.

“India is such a case where the underreported data are staggering. Cases, deaths and what scientists call the “R-nought” or R0 factor are grossly under reported in India,” he said.

“This causes huge vagaries in global calculations because the numbers are so far from reality. India admittedly only calculates and reports hospitalized cases, and even then, in a scanty fashion, according to a consensus among epidemiologists who rely on India’s regional data from traditional sources like hospitals, mortuaries, coroners and medical professionals, not to mention the thousands of bodies floating in rivers, which in total exceed what is reported,” continued the biostatistician.

In Canada, Vaccinations have reduced the reported COVID-19 Active Cases nearly in half over ten days in Canada despite Delta variant spread. Sum of deaths trend almost flatlines.

Canada Graph highlights past ten days proving Vaccines Work

Canada Graph highlights past ten days proving Vaccines Work
Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

FPMag asked for an explanation of the graphs

“This is very interesting,” said Harris.

“Thousands of Canadians have in many respects acted in a cavalier fashion, trying to lead people into the streets to protest against mask wearing and quarantine measures. Well, they became infected in large numbers. Those large numbers infected many more people. Canada was in a mess as one can see from the two major humps in the graph,” he explained.

“So, why is this important? Because while the government was having a hard time controlling so-called freedom-of-speech exercises, public disobedience, and superspreader events, it slammed down hard on educating the population on the safety requirement of getting vaccinated against the SARS2. Ottawa pushed the provincial governments to get the job done.

“At first cases continued to rise, but the illnesses lasted shorter periods and the case fatality rate plummeted. Then everything dropped as the vaccination levels rose.”

Here is the vaccination data for 26 June 2021.

  • Vaccine doses administered: 34,174,571
  • Fully vaccinated: 23.3%
  • Received at least one dose: 67.25%

Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19


Canada proves Vaccines Work

Canada proves Vaccines Work — Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

Approved vaccines according to Canada health department

  1. Moderna COVID-19 vaccine
  2. Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine
  3. AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD COVID-19 vaccine
  4. Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) COVID-19 vaccine

Source: Government of Canada

Types of vaccines used by Canadians

Source: Government of Canada

Full vaccination is needed. Evidence from the United Kingdom about two of the above vaccines used in both countries are efficacious against some of the worst variants.

  • “The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses
  • “the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses,” says the report from the study.

Public Health England reports, “The analysis included 14,019 cases of the Delta variant—166 of whom were hospitalised—between 12 April and 4 June, looking at emergency hospital admissions in England.”

Read if you like, the preliminary findings: Preprint of the Effectiveness-of-COVID-19-vaccines-against-hospital-admission-with-the-Delta-B_1_617_2variant

Here is a ‘public disobedience and superspreader‘ event like those Dr. Harris speaks about.

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Reported:3,948,18641,896 1.06% CFR3,852,87953,411
Estimate:21,833,46954,464 *0.25% IFR21,306,421295,363

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:41,8961.063,948,1863,852,87953,411
* Quebec15,5721.431,087,0251,061,41710,036
First Nations7400.67110,221108,0131,468
Nova Scotia4210.42101,34799,4061,520
* PEI450.1140,80639,6931,068
* NWT220.1812,13512,09419
Sub Totals41,8961.063,948,1863,852,87953,411

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,833,469 (56.35% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-06-29 are estimated to be 54,584 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,584 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54464 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54464 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.

Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District8,581570.7%8,44579
Brant County11,873830.7%11,74149
Durham Region63,0714960.8%62,295280
Eastern Ontario16,0972181.4%15,82158
Grey Bruce8,873690.8%8,76737
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge9,4981111.2%9,33255
Halton Region49,6273270.7%49,057243
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties10,388630.6%10,25471
Huron Perth7,4281111.5%7,29126
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington17,560600.3%17,298202
Lambton County11,9031461.2%11,72334
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District9,5671061.1%9,357104
Niagara Region41,5845481.3%40,829207
North Bay Parry Sound District6,132440.7%6,03751
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas13,9911691.2%13,76755
Peel Region186,6161,3560.7%184,468792
Peterborough County-City7,607801.1%7,48146
Renfrew County And District4,827501.0%4,74433
Simcoe Muskoka District46,6344380.9%45,927269
Sudbury And District15,5221501.0%15,240132
Thunder Bay District12,907960.7%12,640171
Waterloo Region46,7564210.9%46,139196
Windsor-Essex County44,2246321.4%43,433159
York Region112,8551,0420.9%111,193620
Last Updated: 2022-06-29 Time 05:46:25 GMT. Source: CSPaC

Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19