Bad COVID-19 data reports may cause missteps

“COVID-19 deaths in Canada are actually 54,464. Current active cases are realistically 295,363 and the sum of cases to date is more likely 21,833,469 than the low number Canada reports,” says Dr. Fred Harris, a biostatistician and infectious disease researcher in Singapore, heading up the CSPAC tracking team.

By Melissa Hemingway and Micheal John

Note: Both authors were inoculated with the AstraZenica vaccine with perfect outcomes.

Canada approves mix or match AstraZenica second dose.

Canada approves mix or match AstraZenica
second dose. It would be better to have the same second dose as the first says Dr. Theresa Tam.
Photo courtesy AstraZenica.

How does the new information impact Canadians and others?

“Statistically speaking, Canadians are more likely to encounter an infected person out of 295,363 currently active cases than among the much lower government-reported total,” Dr. Harris added.

Morbidity factors higher than people thought?

COVID-19 fatalities are much higher than what Canadians may think according to reports from CSPAC  and IHME. SARS2 has already killed  54,464 Canadians according to best estimates of at least three biostatistician science teams.

“For those Canadians who base their vaccination decision on the morbidity of SARS2 infections, 54,464 real deaths should give them pause to reflect. Polls indicate more people would get vaccinated if they knew 54,464 had already died and that 295,363  Canadians, many of them out and about, were infectious,” he added.

Full sets of estimates including reported COVID-19 cases, deaths, and active cases based on modified algorithms for each country that factor health care capabilities, testing, vaccinations, lifestyles and more. The data corrects errors and fibs. It includes unreported data for mild and asymptomatic cases and people who died at home, never seeing the inside of a hospital or clinic.

Here are the reported and estimated Canada data.

Reported:3,948,18641,896 1.06% CFR3,852,87953,411
Estimate:21,833,46954,464 *0.25% IFR21,306,421295,363

Would Canadians accept the expiration and tossing of thousands of vaccines if they knew the truth?

“Discarding AstraZeneca PLC’s COVID-19 vaccine doses is outrageous beyond immoral. Around the world there are nations in desperate need of vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 and they cannot get them. Every nation has a responsibility to contribute to the fight against the global pandemic,” says Dr. Nassima al Amouri, a humanitarian NGO doctor based in Syria.

“We will take any vaccines we can get from any maker. That Canada is throwing out expired vaccines makes my blood boil. Words make a difference. If ministers don’t know what they are talking about STFU. At least think before you speak political words that cause a quiver full of arrows be given to ‘antivaxxer cults‘,” she added.

On Tuesday, a Canadian government panel released a statement to say that Canadians who received a first dose of AstraZeneca vaccine can choose to receive a another type of vaccine for their second inoculation. Presumably the type of vaccine chosen for the second dose will determine the timing of the second dose.

More importantly, thousands of vaccines expired in Canada on Monday, say several sources close to the information.

Dr. Tam, speaking at a Canadian government news conference said about Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines, “Try and find the same vaccine [for the second dose], the same mRNA vaccine — but if you can’t, for some reason, then consider them interchangeable,” Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, told a news briefing. “This advice provides provinces and territories with safe and effective options to manage the vaccine programs.”

Canada total tests performed 34,862,859 as of publication date and time.

The following data is updated for June 30, 2022. Source is: CSPAC.

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Reported:3,948,18641,896 1.06% CFR3,852,87953,411
Estimate:21,833,46954,464 *0.25% IFR21,306,421295,363

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:41,8961.063,948,1863,852,87953,411
* Quebec15,5721.431,087,0251,061,41710,036
First Nations7400.67110,221108,0131,468
Nova Scotia4210.42101,34799,4061,520
* PEI450.1140,80639,6931,068
* NWT220.1812,13512,09419
Sub Totals41,8961.063,948,1863,852,87953,411

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,833,469 (56.35% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-06-29 are estimated to be 54,584 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,584 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54464 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54464 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.

Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District8,581570.7%8,44579
Brant County11,873830.7%11,74149
Durham Region63,0714960.8%62,295280
Eastern Ontario16,0972181.4%15,82158
Grey Bruce8,873690.8%8,76737
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge9,4981111.2%9,33255
Halton Region49,6273270.7%49,057243
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties10,388630.6%10,25471
Huron Perth7,4281111.5%7,29126
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington17,560600.3%17,298202
Lambton County11,9031461.2%11,72334
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District9,5671061.1%9,357104
Niagara Region41,5845481.3%40,829207
North Bay Parry Sound District6,132440.7%6,03751
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas13,9911691.2%13,76755
Peel Region186,6161,3560.7%184,468792
Peterborough County-City7,607801.1%7,48146
Renfrew County And District4,827501.0%4,74433
Simcoe Muskoka District46,6344380.9%45,927269
Sudbury And District15,5221501.0%15,240132
Thunder Bay District12,907960.7%12,640171
Waterloo Region46,7564210.9%46,139196
Windsor-Essex County44,2246321.4%43,433159
York Region112,8551,0420.9%111,193620
Last Updated: 2022-06-29 Time 05:46:25 GMT. Source: CSPaC