Bad COVID-19 data reports may cause missteps

“COVID-19 deaths in Canada are actually 51,654. Current active cases are realistically 1,606,644 and the sum of cases to date is more likely 14,592,654 than the low number Canada reports,” says Dr. Fred Harris, a biostatistician and infectious disease researcher in Singapore, heading up the CSPAC tracking team.

By Melissa Hemingway and Micheal John

Note: Both authors were inoculated with the AstraZenica vaccine with perfect outcomes.

Canada approves mix or match AstraZenica second dose.

Canada approves mix or match AstraZenica
second dose. It would be better to have the same second dose as the first says Dr. Theresa Tam.
Photo courtesy AstraZenica.

How does the new information impact Canadians and others?

“Statistically speaking, Canadians are more likely to encounter an infected person out of 1,606,644 currently active cases than among the much lower government-reported total,” Dr. Harris added.

Morbidity factors higher than people thought?

COVID-19 fatalities are much higher than what Canadians may think according to reports from CSPAC  and IHME. SARS2 has already killed  51,654 Canadians according to best estimates of at least three biostatistician science teams.

“For those Canadians who base their vaccination decision on the morbidity of SARS2 infections, 51,654 real deaths should give them pause to reflect. Polls indicate more people would get vaccinated if they knew 51,654 had already died and that 1,606,644  Canadians, many of them out and about, were infectious,” he added.

Full sets of estimates including reported COVID-19 cases, deaths, and active cases based on modified algorithms for each country that factor health care capabilities, testing, vaccinations, lifestyles and more. The data corrects errors and fibs. It includes unreported data for mild and asymptomatic cases and people who died at home, never seeing the inside of a hospital or clinic.

Here are the reported and estimated Canada data.

Reported:2,844,57232,004 1.13% CFR2,499,382313,186
Estimate:14,592,65451,654 *0.35% IFR12,821,8301,606,644

Would Canadians accept the expiration and tossing of thousands of vaccines if they knew the truth?

“Discarding AstraZeneca PLC’s COVID-19 vaccine doses is outrageous beyond immoral. Around the world there are nations in desperate need of vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 and they cannot get them. Every nation has a responsibility to contribute to the fight against the global pandemic,” says Dr. Nassima al Amouri, a humanitarian NGO doctor based in Syria.

“We will take any vaccines we can get from any maker. That Canada is throwing out expired vaccines makes my blood boil. Words make a difference. If ministers don’t know what they are talking about STFU. At least think before you speak political words that cause a quiver full of arrows be given to ‘antivaxxer cults‘,” she added.

On Tuesday, a Canadian government panel released a statement to say that Canadians who received a first dose of AstraZeneca vaccine can choose to receive a another type of vaccine for their second inoculation. Presumably the type of vaccine chosen for the second dose will determine the timing of the second dose.

More importantly, thousands of vaccines expired in Canada on Monday, say several sources close to the information.

Dr. Tam, speaking at a Canadian government news conference said about Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines, “Try and find the same vaccine [for the second dose], the same mRNA vaccine — but if you can’t, for some reason, then consider them interchangeable,” Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, told a news briefing. “This advice provides provinces and territories with safe and effective options to manage the vaccine programs.”

Canada total tests performed 34,862,859 as of publication date and time.

The following data is updated for January 20, 2022. Source is: CSPAC.

Population: 38,585,269 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Reported:2,844,57232,004 1.13% CFR2,499,382313,186
Estimate:14,592,65451,654 *0.35% IFR12,821,8301,606,644

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:32,0041.132,844,5722,499,382313,186
First Nations5840.9164,24758,3535,310
Nova Scotia1210.3831,86026,2275,512
Sub Totals32,0041.132,844,5722,499,382313,186

Note: Above is region/county Health Unit reports from the province of Ontario and the individual units.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 14,592,654 (37.82% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.35%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-01-19 are estimated to be 51,074 Using estimated IFR of 0.35% which is far below global average IFR.

51,074 (0.35% IFR) is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

51654 Is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 51654 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District3,063220.7%2,489552
Brant County8,527450.5%7,514968
Durham Region47,2923970.8%41,0895,806
Eastern Ontario11,3981631.4%9,8831,352
Grey Bruce4,971360.7%4,604331
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge5,316731.4%4,499744
Halton Region37,4772690.7%33,9723,236
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties5,197260.5%4,342829
Huron Perth4,606791.7%4,113414
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington8,043270.3%7,396620
Lambton County7,9561011.3%6,8281,027
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District5,000681.4%4,375557
Niagara Region29,0544631.6%25,7632,828
North Bay Parry Sound District2,386110.5%2,115260
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas9,3461291.4%8,303914
Peel Region157,4051,0520.7%145,07711,276
Peterborough County-City4,488400.9%3,871577
Renfrew County And District2,418170.7%2,022379
Simcoe Muskoka District29,2843001.0%25,8423,142
Sudbury And District7,889670.8%6,3991,423
Thunder Bay District5,838731.3%4,935830
Waterloo Region35,5373330.9%30,9854,219
Windsor-Essex County32,0075301.7%28,5612,916
York Region90,3389111.0%83,5095,918
Last Updated: 2022-01-20 Time 01:29:46 GMT. Source: CSPaC