Will USA July 4 celebrations bring a Delta COVID spike? Yes, and a case for Vaccination



“The risk is high for unvaccinated Americans if a family member attended July 4 Celebrations and came home infected with the Delta coronavirus variant. Get vaccinated,” suggested Dr. Anderson of The RINJ Foundation.

“Infection with the delta variant can happen easily by just standing in or walking by through the same air space with an infected person,” Dr. Anderson added.

“Because the highly contagious Delta variants (B.1.617.2 and even the B.1.617.2.1) of the 2019 coronavirus have reached the shores of the United States, the risk of sporadic regional outbreaks will likely be realized mostly among non-vaccinated Americans, by mid-July 2021,” predicts Monique Deslauriers, a Calais Maine public Health nurse currently in New York working on an infectious disease research project.

“We have already seen the incipient stages of Delta spread, but not as bad as Europe, yet,” she added.

“Putting millions of Americans into close proximity for Independence Day celebrations was a calculated risk. The political imperative for US President Joe Biden was to fulfill a political election promise. The White House now seems to feel that it cannot back down from its promise of unmasking into a normalized society for massive celebrations on 4 July, America’s Independence Day. And President Biden seems to believe and has as much as said that a major widespread surge in COVID-19 is unlikely. I agree with most epidemiologists who say regional outbreaks with devastating local impact in hospitalizations and deaths is unavoidable because of more contagious variants, but I feel certain there is statistical evidence proving that widespread surges will not happen—only sporadic regional hits—in highly vaccinated nations with over 60% vaccination rates,” says biostatistician and infectious disease researcher, Fred Harris.

“To stop the pandemic, the world must reach 70% vaccinated or better, fast, I should add, because until that happens, massive numbers of people will become infected and more nasty variants, even escape variants that resist antibodies, will likely emerge, so get vaccinated, people,” Dr. Harris added.

New York Fireworks, 4 July 2021.

New York Fireworks, 4 July 2021. Photo Credit: Source supplied, Monique Deslauriers. Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

“Non-immunized patients will become very sick if mingling in crowds without serious PPE,” is what  Dr. Nassima al Amouri told FPMag on the weekend, from Syria, where little is known about the extent of COVID-19 infections across the country but like 85 other nations, Syria has seen the Delta variant.

How easily does the Delta Variant Spread? Fleeting contact is all it takes.

Sandra Ellingsworth reports from Sydney, Australia that a startling piece of research in New South wales has indicated that according to Premier Gladys Berejiklian, “Literally, people not even physically touching each other but fleetingly coming into the same airspace has seen the virus transfer from one person to another,” the Premier said, referring to the highly contagious Delta variant.

“That’s how contagious the Delta variant of the SARS-COV-2 has become,” said Sandra, who recently returned home from Myanmar where she had operated as team lead on a RINJ Foundation HIV testing project.


FPMag asked Monique Deslauriers how celebrations were going and she said, “The Chicago Youth Symphony Orchestras just knocked the wind out of me and brought me to tears of pride…I hope those youths are all vaccinated.”


Remember where New York was a year ago? This is New York City coming back. Can you feel it?

New York Fireworks, 4 July 2021.

Remember where New York was a year ago? This is New York City coming back. Can you feel it? New York Fireworks, 4 July 2021. Photo Credit: Source supplied, Monique Deslauriers. Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

USA COVID-19 Data for January 22, 2022

U.S.A. (pop. 332,433,842)

  • CoV19 Reported Cases: 70,745,030
  • Current Reported Deaths:(CFR: 1.26%): 881,420 Estimated actual: 969,101
  • Cured: 44,111,071
  • Beta experimental: All time reported + unreported asymptomatic people maybe not sick, not immune, but possibly infectious and including the many people who have had several mild or asymptomatic infections: 358,926,462.36
  • 107.97% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (358,926,462.36) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.26% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 969,101 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is higher than what CSPaC is estimating.
Rest of the world excluding USA.
  • CoV19 Cases: 275,213,584
  • Deaths: 4,737,801 | 1.62%
  • Cured: 236,388,938
  • Reported + estimated all unreported 1,774,767,689

Note: Total statistics for the United States do not include these offshore territories. The US Military is included as if it is an offshore territory, not reported as continental USA data but as USA overall totals and included in world totals. FPMag evaluates these separately for many reasons.

TerritoryCasesDeathsRecovered
Continental US69,966,172881,420 | 1.26%43,519,810
+US Military490,202660 | 0.1%422,164
+Guam25,757276 | 1.1%19,496
+Puerto Rico 244,6193,593 | 1.47%186,926
+US Virgin Islands14,15894 | 0.7%12,608
+Northern Mariana Islands4,11821 | 0.5%3,648
+American Samoa40 | %4
Totals70,745,030886,06444,111,071

The American Epicenter including ALL Territories has 43.03 % of global 'active' cases (25,747,895 USA (incl territories) / 59,839,384 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Abundant proof that vaccines are working, an observation derived from unrelated data analysis.

As the epicenter we look at continental USA together with US territories and without. The declining CFR in the continental United States is believed to be due to vaccination rates and is abundant proof that the vaccines are working.

In order to avoid letting countries that refuse to report the sum of case recoveries, thus skewing global calculations, Ecuador, France, Netherlands, Peru, Puerto Rico, Spain and Sweden 'recoveries' are estimated based on the current reported global recoveries as a percentage of all cases. (([reported recoveries]) divide (345,958,614 [Global Reported Sum of All Cases] less 15,583,169 [France Sum of Cases] less 629,507 [Ecuador Sum of Cases] less 8,975,458 [Spain Sum of Cases] less 3,778,287 [Netherlands Sum of Cases] less 1,784,005 [Sweden Sum of Cases] less 2,780,049 [Peru Sum of Cases])) = 81% a coefficient which is then adjusted according to the number of cases in the past 30 days and the new coefficient is applied to the sum of each of these nation's cumulative cases to estimate the missing recoveries data. In the case of France some additional hospital-sourced recovery data is factored.

Reported:
All USASum of CasesDeathsRecoveredActive
Continental USA69,966,172881,42043,519,81025,564,942
USA+territories70,745,030886,06444,111,07125,747,895
Estimated:



USA+territories358,926,462.36969,101226,289,794131,656,529

See also IHME Estimates for America.