Toronto, Peel, Halton spike in India variant: vaccination AND masks indicated for Canada, say experts



In Canada the Delta variant surges cases in Toronto, Peel and Halton by 1000%+. Incipient challenge to public health from Delta variant escapes Ontario government notice? “Get vaccinated but still wear a mask,” say doctors.

Ontario, Canada public health regional public health offices report COVID-19 death totals and total case sums that exceed what Ontario government is reporting (9,224) versus 9,258. Actual case numbers are 552,909 but reported by the Ontario Government as 546,217. See graph below. Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19.

Several doctors in Canada and around the world told FPMag that Canadians need to be wearing masks no matter that they have been vaccinated.

“Probably if masks were comfortable and people knew how to wear them,” says Dr. Anderson of The RINJ Foundation, “they would be happier wearing a mask. That’s likely why the WHO has worked so hard to produce many informative and instructive videos like this one, especially in the face of the more contagious Delta variant.”


by Sharon Santiago and Micheal John


“Ontario Canada is pushing vaccines but it is not explaining that it has already seen in the past seven days a 1,107% increase in COVID-19 cases in Toronto; a 955% increase in Peel Region cases; and a 1,328% increase in Halton Region COVID-19 cases. Deaths are also up notably in all three locations. What is significant is the large population of families from India who may have been in contact with relatives from home or traveled to India since December 2020,” notes Fred Harris, a biostatistician and infectious disease researcher based in Singapore. Here is the data in a CSV form updated: 2021-07-07 Time 02:17:36 GMT: ontario-totals.

“The India variant has begun to spread in Southern Ontario in a traceable and significant manner. The argument for both getting vaccinated and wearing masks while indoors in public places is a glaring fact of these data sets,” Dr. Harris continued.

A recent study published in Ontario Canada, on 28 June, as a preliminary release, in association with the Province of Ontario and several Ontario-funded hospitals (2021.06.28.21259420v1), says what the world knew and the World Health Organization has been nagging into our ears for nearly a year:

“Conclusions: Our findings suggest that even a single dose of these 3 vaccine products [BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca) ] provide good to excellent protection against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes caused by the 4 currently circulating variants of concern, and that 2 doses are likely to provide even higher protection.” Citing: 2021.06.28.21259420v1.full

 

Focus on Ontario

Graphed data updated: 2021-07-07 Time 02:17:36 GMT. Ontario Canada public health regional death totals exceed what Ontario government is reporting (9,224) versus 9,258. Actual case numbers are 552,909 but reported by the Ontario Government as 546,217. Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

Video:WHO’s Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan answers important vaccine related questions.

Canada COVID-19 Data for September 29, 2022

Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

Population: 38,749,252 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:4,259,37045,180 1.06% CFR4,166,86947,321
Estimate:23,554,31658,734 *0.25% IFR23,042,786261,685

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:45,1801.064,259,3704,166,86947,321
* Quebec16,7171.401,193,9641,163,98213,265
Ontario14,3420.981,459,3531,428,79816,213
Alberta4,8720.80605,757594,1556,730
BC4,2531.11384,266375,7444,269
Manitoba2,1431.43149,622145,8171,662
Sask1,5071.05143,747140,6431,597
NB4760.6276,31674,992848
Nova Scotia5180.42123,549121,6581,373
NL2350.4651,44650,639572
* PEI570.1151,41050,782571
Yukon310.634,8854,80054
NWT220.1911,51111,361128
Nunavut70.203,5313,48539
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals45,1801.064,259,3704,166,86947,321

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec and * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 23,554,316 (60.79% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-09-28 are estimated to be 58,886 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

58,886 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

58734 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 58734 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District9,647650.7%9,417165
Brant County13,058980.8%12,819141
Chatham-Kent9,7521001.0%9,532120
Hamilton65,3946080.9%64,108678
Ottawa81,9858861.1%80,397702
Durham Region67,6015100.8%66,648443
Eastern Ontario17,9522431.4%17,473236
Grey Bruce9,925790.8%9,705141
Haldimand-Norfolk9,618921.0%9,43690
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge10,8191261.2%10,550143
Halton Region53,4273510.7%52,710366
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties12,340840.7%11,849407
Huron Perth8,3261251.5%8,078123
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington20,403790.4%19,968356
Lambton County12,9421511.2%12,636155
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District11,2831141.0%10,878291
Middlesex-London42,8044451.0%41,850509
Niagara Region45,7935731.3%44,829391
North Bay Parry Sound District7,509620.8%7,306141
Northwestern12,273360.3%12,067170
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas15,7641831.2%15,245336
Peel Region196,4991,4270.7%193,9381,134
Peterborough County-City8,8061001.1%8,517189
Porcupine8,247770.9%8,09674
Renfrew County And District5,920631.1%5,733124
Simcoe Muskoka District51,0014861.0%50,016499
Sudbury And District18,1421680.9%17,651323
Thunder Bay District15,5151170.8%15,099299
Timiskaming2,345251.1%2,27446
Toronto350,7914,3961.3%344,3242,071
Waterloo Region50,9374730.9%50,118346
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph24,5281750.7%24,127226
Windsor-Essex County48,1526691.4%46,901582
York Region121,9451,0930.9%120,078774
Last Updated: 2022-09-29 Time 00:09:20 GMT. Source: CSPaC