Toronto, Peel, Halton spike in India variant: vaccination AND masks indicated for Canada, say experts



In Canada the Delta variant surges cases in Toronto, Peel and Halton by 1000%+. Incipient challenge to public health from Delta variant escapes Ontario government notice? “Get vaccinated but still wear a mask,” say doctors.

Ontario, Canada public health regional public health offices report COVID-19 death totals and total case sums that exceed what Ontario government is reporting (9,224) versus 9,258. Actual case numbers are 552,909 but reported by the Ontario Government as 546,217. See graph below. Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19.

Several doctors in Canada and around the world told FPMag that Canadians need to be wearing masks no matter that they have been vaccinated.

“Probably if masks were comfortable and people knew how to wear them,” says Dr. Anderson of The RINJ Foundation, “they would be happier wearing a mask. That’s likely why the WHO has worked so hard to produce many informative and instructive videos like this one, especially in the face of the more contagious Delta variant.”


by Sharon Santiago and Micheal John


“Ontario Canada is pushing vaccines but it is not explaining that it has already seen in the past seven days a 1,107% increase in COVID-19 cases in Toronto; a 955% increase in Peel Region cases; and a 1,328% increase in Halton Region COVID-19 cases. Deaths are also up notably in all three locations. What is significant is the large population of families from India who may have been in contact with relatives from home or traveled to India since December 2020,” notes Fred Harris, a biostatistician and infectious disease researcher based in Singapore. Here is the data in a CSV form updated: 2021-07-07 Time 02:17:36 GMT: ontario-totals.

“The India variant has begun to spread in Southern Ontario in a traceable and significant manner. The argument for both getting vaccinated and wearing masks while indoors in public places is a glaring fact of these data sets,” Dr. Harris continued.

A recent study published in Ontario Canada, on 28 June, as a preliminary release, in association with the Province of Ontario and several Ontario-funded hospitals (2021.06.28.21259420v1), says what the world knew and the World Health Organization has been nagging into our ears for nearly a year:

“Conclusions: Our findings suggest that even a single dose of these 3 vaccine products [BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca) ] provide good to excellent protection against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes caused by the 4 currently circulating variants of concern, and that 2 doses are likely to provide even higher protection.” Citing: 2021.06.28.21259420v1.full

 

Focus on Ontario

Graphed data updated: 2021-07-07 Time 02:17:36 GMT. Ontario Canada public health regional death totals exceed what Ontario government is reporting (9,224) versus 9,258. Actual case numbers are 552,909 but reported by the Ontario Government as 546,217. Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

Video:WHO’s Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan answers important vaccine related questions.

Canada COVID-19 Data for January 28, 2022

Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

Population: 38,585,269 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:3,007,41933,348 1.11% CFR2,743,712230,359
Estimate:15,428,05953,824 *0.35% IFR14,075,2431,181,742

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:33,3481.113,007,4192,743,712235,457
Quebec12,9951.53849,519791,26745,257
Ontario11,2811.101,025,580965,32354,074
Alberta3,5180.73484,400436,58144,301
BC2,5880.81318,906282,18934,129
Manitoba1,5381.30117,97187,48228,951
SK9850.86113,993100,62212,386
First Nations5950.8470,48264,3745,513
NB2240.8127,64922,0695,356
Nova Scotia1360.3835,88931,4004,353
NL380.2316,49313,9342,521
Yukon160.533,0382,852170
NWT150.265,6694,6211,033
Nunavut50.341,4871,187295
PEI90.136,8124,1722,631
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals33,3481.113,007,4192,743,712235,457

Note: Above is region/county Health Unit reports. First Nations data is monitored uniquely but included in provincial totals.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 15,428,059 (39.98% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.35%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-01-27 are estimated to be 53,998 Using estimated IFR of 0.35% which is far below global average IFR.

53,998 (0.35% IFR) is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

53824 Is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 53824 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Province differ significantly from the data reported by individual Public Health Units. CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit. CSPaC has heard the explanation from the province that data is reassigned from one PHU to another based on patient location. That means that patients are taken to the nearest available hospital and not necessarily to a medical facility in their own Public Health Region.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District3,506240.7%2,882600
Brant County9,033570.6%8,279697
Chatham-Kent5,840591.0%5,227554
Durham Region49,4134110.8%46,1972,805
Eastern Ontario12,2541811.5%11,111962
Grey Bruce5,273420.8%4,989242
Haldimand-Norfolk6,240751.2%5,630535
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge5,989761.3%5,162751
Halton Region39,6012840.7%37,4231,894
Hamilton45,0004681.0%41,8072,725
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties5,603360.6%5,008559
Huron Perth4,943821.7%4,487374
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington8,500320.4%8,015453
Lambton County8,5211061.2%7,692723
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District5,439731.3%4,788578
Middlesex-London28,2922961.0%25,7852,211
Niagara Region30,7524771.6%28,1982,077
North Bay Parry Sound District2,683130.5%2,438232
Northwestern3,144120.4%2,636496
Ottawa56,8546831.2%52,8623,309
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas9,9301371.4%9,031762
Peel Region163,8941,0780.7%155,9526,864
Peterborough County-City4,801461.0%4,383372
Porcupine4,110360.9%3,717357
Renfrew County And District2,684190.7%2,392273
Simcoe Muskoka District31,1183291.1%28,6912,098
Sudbury And District8,761820.9%7,3791,300
Thunder Bay District6,489741.1%5,596819
Timiskaming94180.9%828105
Toronto274,0443,9931.5%264,7555,296
Waterloo Region37,6043460.9%34,9572,301
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph16,9651350.8%15,878952
Windsor-Essex County33,7055521.6%31,2011,952
York Region93,6549591.0%89,9472,748
Totals:1025580112811.10%96532348976
Last Updated: 2022-01-28 Time 01:24:56 GMT. Source: CSPaC