Ontario, Canada with highest active CoV cases in Canada still needs to vaccinate more
Get fully vaccinated in Canada, warns infectious disease researchers. Or the COVID-19 Delta Variant will hit you like a Niagara Falls deluge.
Whereas the Ontario and Canadian federal governments are publishing data indicating Ontario this morning had COVID-19 case sums of 549,156, total deaths of 9,311, and a resolved cases sum of 538,421, the public health units of 34 reporting regions of Ontario report an even better overall picture: 556062 cases, 9273 deaths, and 545187 recoveries respectively.
In both parameters, active cases and the number of deaths, the regional public health units paint a better picture for Ontario. But at least one expert says this could be the lull before the storm.
The takeaway from this is that cases in Ontario are much higher than reported; but the active cases today are at 1,383, substantially improved over the national and provincial reports that lag a day and a half or more.
“Based on world standards, these numbers are very low. Canada has not been hit hard by the devastating effect of the Delta variant, perhaps partly because the country has fully vaccinated 55 percent of its population, and partly because it just hasn’t hit Canada yet, the way it has reached Europe and Asia,” explains Fred Harris, a biostatistician and infectious disease researcher based in Singapore.
“Get fully vaccinated in Canada,” warns infectious disease researchers. Or Delta Variant “will hit you like a Niagara Falls deluge”.
“The best advise for Canadians is Get Vaccinated, Dr. Harris stressed. I could say put on a life jacket, crash helmet and fasten full shoulder harnesses to prepare for the equivalent deluge of a Niagara Falls waterfall when looking at some European nations and what has hit them. Indonesia for one example is being hit harder than any nation at this time. The delta variant can bring devastation. Get vaccinated and wear a mask,” he added.
Data for 25 July, 2021. Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19
Ontario Regional Public Health Units – A granular analysis of a lull before a potential storm.
Researchers are warning Canadians not to become complacent in the ‘lull before the storm‘. “Get fully vaccinated and mask-up,” they say.
|Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington||1580||6||1573||1|
|Leeds Grenville & Lanark||1768||60||1706||2|
|North Bay-Nipissing-Parry Sound||650||8||617||25|
|Sudbury & District||2178||31||2141||6|
|Windsor Essex County||16856||435||16404||17|
Last Updated: 2021-07-25 Time 12:07:16 GMT Source: CSPaC
Canada Data for January 18, 2022.
Population: 38,585,269 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths
|Reported:||2,801,133||31,674 1.13% CFR||2,435,778||333,681|
|Estimate:||14,369,812||51,122 *0.36% IFR||12,495,541||1,711,784|
*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.
The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.
Note: Above is region/county Health Unit reports from the province of Ontario and the individual units.
Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.
Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.
The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 14,369,812
(37.24% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases.
That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.36%
Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-01-17 are estimated to be 51,731 Using estimated IFR of 0.36% which is far below global average IFR.
51,731 (0.36% IFR) is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.
51122 Is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.
The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.
It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 51122 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.
Canada's advanced public health standards.
Ontario, Canada Reports
Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.
|Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge||5,267||73||1.4%||4,331||863|
|Hastings & Prince Edward Counties||5,161||24||0.5%||4,118||1,019|
|Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington||7,967||26||0.3%||7,141||800|
|Leeds Grenville And Lanark District||4,915||67||1.4%||4,266||582|
|North Bay Parry Sound District||2,315||9||0.4%||2,002||304|
|Renfrew County And District||2,348||17||0.7%||1,919||412|
|Simcoe Muskoka District||28,701||296||1.0%||24,913||3,492|
|Sudbury And District||7,765||68||0.9%||6,177||1,520|
|Thunder Bay District||5,695||72||1.3%||4,790||833|