Ontario, Canada with highest active CoV cases in Canada still needs to vaccinate more

Get fully vaccinated in Canada, warns infectious disease researchers. Or the COVID-19 Delta Variant will hit you like a Niagara Falls deluge.

Whereas the Ontario and Canadian federal governments are publishing data indicating Ontario this morning had COVID-19 case sums of 549,156, total deaths of 9,311, and a resolved cases sum of 538,421, the public health units of 34 reporting regions of Ontario report an even better overall picture: 556062 cases, 9273 deaths, and 545187 recoveries respectively.

In both parameters, active cases and the number of deaths, the regional public health units paint a better picture for Ontario. But at least one expert says this could be the lull before the storm.

The takeaway from this is that cases in Ontario are much higher than reported; but the active cases today are at 1,383, substantially improved over the national and provincial reports that lag a day and a half or more.

“Based on world standards, these numbers are very low. Canada has not been hit hard by the devastating effect of the Delta variant, perhaps partly because the country has fully vaccinated 55 percent of its population, and partly because it just hasn’t hit Canada yet, the way it has reached Europe and Asia,” explains Fred Harris, a biostatistician and infectious disease researcher based in Singapore.

Niagara Falls USA and Canada from the Ontario Side.

Niagara Falls USA and Canadian Falls seen from the Ontario Side.
Photo Credit: Saffron Blaze – CC BY-SA 3.0,

“Get fully vaccinated in Canada,” warns infectious disease researchers.  Or Delta Variant “will hit you like a Niagara Falls deluge”.

“The best advise for Canadians is Get Vaccinated, Dr. Harris stressed. I could say put on a life jacket, crash helmet and fasten full shoulder harnesses to prepare for the equivalent deluge of a Niagara Falls waterfall when looking at some European nations and what has hit them. Indonesia for one example is being hit harder than any nation at this time. The delta variant can bring devastation. Get vaccinated and wear a mask,” he added.

Data for 25 July, 2021.  Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

Ontario Regional Public Health Units – A granular analysis of a lull before a potential storm.

Researchers are warning Canadians not to become complacent in the ‘lull before the storm‘. “Get fully vaccinated and mask-up,” they say.

Region cases deaths recoveries active
Algoma 405 6 399 0
Brant County 3429 20 3403 6
Chatham-Kent 1903 17 1880 6
Durham Region 25360 374 24931 55
Eastern Ontario 4739 111 4621 7
Grey-Bruce 2050 9 1899 142
Haldimand-Norfolk 2725 48 2662 15
Haliburton-Kawartha-Pine Ridge 2221 76 2144 1
Halton Region 18142 236 17861 45
Hamilton 21504 400 20991 113
Hastings-Prince Edward 1133 11 1120 2
Huron-Perth 1936 57 1865 14
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington 1580 6 1573 1
Lambton 3633 68 3562 3
Leeds Grenville & Lanark 1768 60 1706 2
Middlesex-London 12729 229 12446 54
Niagara Region 16336 419 15858 59
North Bay-Nipissing-Parry Sound 650 8 617 25
Northwestern 1098 8 1088 2
Ottawa 27774 593 27138 43
Peel Region 111758 824 110805 129
Peterborough 1628 22 1601 5
Porcupine 2135 30 2070 35
Renfrew Region 754 9 739 6
Simcoe-Muskoka 12350 255 12065 30
Southwestern Ontario 3932 84 3831 17
Sudbury & District 2178 31 2141 6
Thunder Bay 3341 64 3276 1
Timiskaming 208 2 206 0
Toronto 170476 3600 166568 308
Waterloo 18271 292 17845 134
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph 8283 126 8125 32
Windsor Essex County 16856 435 16404 17
York Region 52777 743 51966 68
Totals: 556062 9273 545406 1383

Last Updated: 2021-07-25 Time 12:07:16 GMT Source: CSPaC

Canada Data for June 28, 2022.

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Reported:3,941,18341,879 1.06% CFR3,847,11052,194
Estimate:21,794,74254,442 *0.25% IFR21,274,518288,633

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:41,8791.063,941,1833,847,11052,194
* Quebec15,5591.431,085,0581,059,9859,514
First Nations7400.67110,221108,0131,468
Nova Scotia4210.4299,51497,6001,493
* PEI450.1139,99839,363590
* NWT220.1812,13512,09419
Sub Totals41,8791.063,941,1833,847,11052,194

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,794,742 (56.25% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-06-27 are estimated to be 54,487 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,487 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54442 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54442 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.

Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District8,581570.7%8,44579
Brant County11,873830.7%11,74149
Durham Region63,0714960.8%62,295280
Eastern Ontario16,0972181.4%15,82158
Grey Bruce8,873690.8%8,76737
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge9,4981111.2%9,33255
Halton Region49,6273270.7%49,057243
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties10,388630.6%10,25471
Huron Perth7,4281111.5%7,29126
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington17,560600.3%17,298202
Lambton County11,9031461.2%11,72334
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District9,5671061.1%9,357104
Niagara Region41,5845481.3%40,829207
North Bay Parry Sound District6,132440.7%6,03751
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas13,9911691.2%13,76755
Peel Region186,6161,3560.7%184,468792
Peterborough County-City7,607801.1%7,48146
Renfrew County And District4,827501.0%4,74433
Simcoe Muskoka District46,6344380.9%45,927269
Sudbury And District15,5221501.0%15,240132
Thunder Bay District12,907960.7%12,640171
Waterloo Region46,7564210.9%46,139196
Windsor-Essex County44,2246321.4%43,433159
York Region112,8551,0420.9%111,193620
Last Updated: 2022-06-28 Time 00:55:07 GMT. Source: CSPaC