Ontario, Canada with highest active CoV cases in Canada still needs to vaccinate more

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Get fully vaccinated in Canada, warns infectious disease researchers. Or the COVID-19 Delta Variant will hit you like a Niagara Falls deluge.

Whereas the Ontario and Canadian federal governments are publishing data indicating Ontario this morning had COVID-19 case sums of 549,156, total deaths of 9,311, and a resolved cases sum of 538,421, the public health units of 34 reporting regions of Ontario report an even better overall picture: 556062 cases, 9273 deaths, and 545187 recoveries respectively.

In both parameters, active cases and the number of deaths, the regional public health units paint a better picture for Ontario. But at least one expert says this could be the lull before the storm.

The takeaway from this is that cases in Ontario are much higher than reported; but the active cases today are at 1,383, substantially improved over the national and provincial reports that lag a day and a half or more.

“Based on world standards, these numbers are very low. Canada has not been hit hard by the devastating effect of the Delta variant, perhaps partly because the country has fully vaccinated 55 percent of its population, and partly because it just hasn’t hit Canada yet, the way it has reached Europe and Asia,” explains Fred Harris, a biostatistician and infectious disease researcher based in Singapore.

“Get fully vaccinated in Canada,” warns infectious disease researchers.  Or Delta Variant “will hit you like a Niagara Falls deluge”.

“The best advise for Canadians is Get Vaccinated, Dr. Harris stressed. I could say put on a life jacket, crash helmet and fasten full shoulder harnesses to prepare for the equivalent deluge of a Niagara Falls waterfall when looking at some European nations and what has hit them. Indonesia for one example is being hit harder than any nation at this time. The delta variant can bring devastation. Get vaccinated and wear a mask,” he added.

Data for 25 July, 2021.  Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

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Ontario Regional Public Health Units – A granular analysis of a lull before a potential storm.

Researchers are warning Canadians not to become complacent in the ‘lull before the storm‘. “Get fully vaccinated and mask-up,” they say.

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Region	cases	deaths	recoveries	active
Algoma	405	6	399	0
Brant County	3429	20	3403	6
Chatham-Kent	1903	17	1880	6
Durham Region	25360	374	24931	55
Eastern Ontario	4739	111	4621	7
Grey-Bruce	2050	9	1899	142
Haldimand-Norfolk	2725	48	2662	15
Haliburton-Kawartha-Pine Ridge	2221	76	2144	1
Halton Region	18142	236	17861	45
Hamilton	21504	400	20991	113
Hastings-Prince Edward	1133	11	1120	2
Huron-Perth	1936	57	1865	14
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington	1580	6	1573	1
Lambton	3633	68	3562	3
Leeds Grenville & Lanark	1768	60	1706	2
Middlesex-London	12729	229	12446	54
Niagara Region	16336	419	15858	59
North Bay-Nipissing-Parry Sound	650	8	617	25
Northwestern	1098	8	1088	2
Ottawa	27774	593	27138	43
Peel Region	111758	824	110805	129
Peterborough	1628	22	1601	5
Porcupine	2135	30	2070	35
Renfrew Region	754	9	739	6
Simcoe-Muskoka	12350	255	12065	30
Southwestern Ontario	3932	84	3831	17
Sudbury & District	2178	31	2141	6
Thunder Bay	3341	64	3276	1
Timiskaming	208	2	206	0
Toronto	170476	3600	166568	308
Waterloo	18271	292	17845	134
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	8283	126	8125	32
Windsor Essex County	16856	435	16404	17
York Region	52777	743	51966	68
Totals:	556062	9273	545406	1383

Last Updated: 2021-07-25 Time 12:07:16 GMT Source: CSPaC

Canada Data for January 18, 2022.

Population: 38,585,269 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Canada	Cases	Deaths	Cured	Active
Reported:	2,801,133	31,674 1.13% CFR	2,435,778	333,681
Estimate:	14,369,812	51,122 *0.36% IFR	12,495,541	1,711,784

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

Canada Provinces	Deaths	CFR%	Cases	Cured	Active
COVID-19 Totals:	31,674	1.13	2,801,133	2,435,778	333,681
Quebec	12,364	1.54	801,152	734,649	54,139
Ontario	10,628	1.11	956,607	851,365	94,614
Alberta	3,403	0.75	452,381	376,610	72,368
BC	2,490	0.83	299,146	257,677	38,979
Manitoba	1,463	1.32	110,593	69,169	39,961
SK	961	0.95	101,537	88,934	11,642
First Nations	577	0.94	61,532	55,499	5,456
NB	189	0.82	23,173	18,068	4,916
Nova Scotia	117	0.38	30,950	22,862	7,971
NL	26	0.20	13,032	7,670	5,336
Yukon	15	0.55	2,720	2,417	288
NWT	12	0.28	4,233	2,954	1,267
Nunavut	4	0.33	1,195	923	268
PEI	2	0.05	4,401	2,467	1,932
Repatriates	0		13	13	0
Sub Totals	31,674	1.13	2,801,133	2,435,778	333,681

Note: Above is region/county Health Unit reports from the province of Ontario and the individual units.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 14,369,812 (37.24% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.36%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-01-17 are estimated to be 51,731 Using estimated IFR of 0.36% which is far below global average IFR.

51,731 (0.36% IFR) is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

51122 Is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 51122 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

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Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

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Health Unit	Cases	Deaths	CFR	Recoveries	Active
Algoma District	2,984	21	0.7%	2,399	564
Brant County	8,359	44	0.5%	7,305	1,010
Chatham-Kent	5,186	44	0.8%	4,364	778
Durham Region	46,625	396	0.8%	39,639	6,590
Eastern Ontario	11,275	155	1.4%	9,423	1,697
Grey Bruce	4,907	36	0.7%	4,453	418
Haldimand-Norfolk	5,742	75	1.3%	4,871	796
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge	5,267	73	1.4%	4,331	863
Halton Region	36,623	268	0.7%	32,684	3,671
Hamilton	42,020	433	1.0%	36,913	4,674
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties	5,161	24	0.5%	4,118	1,019
Huron Perth	4,549	78	1.7%	3,992	479
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington	7,967	26	0.3%	7,141	800
Lambton County	7,820	96	1.2%	6,652	1,072
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District	4,915	67	1.4%	4,266	582
Middlesex-London	26,240	270	1.0%	22,824	3,146
Niagara Region	28,715	463	1.6%	25,055	3,197
North Bay Parry Sound District	2,315	9	0.4%	2,002	304
Northwestern	2,681	11	0.4%	2,107	563
Ottawa	53,498	648	1.2%	47,446	5,404
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas	9,177	128	1.4%	8,093	956
Peel Region	155,385	1,050	0.7%	142,185	12,150
Peterborough County-City	4,421	39	0.9%	3,715	667
Porcupine	3,788	33	0.9%	3,270	485
Renfrew County And District	2,348	17	0.7%	1,919	412
Simcoe Muskoka District	28,701	296	1.0%	24,913	3,492
Sudbury And District	7,765	68	0.9%	6,177	1,520
Thunder Bay District	5,695	72	1.3%	4,790	833
Timiskaming	854	5	0.6%	707	142
Toronto	253,843	3,802	1.5%	230,390	19,651
Waterloo Region	34,926	326	0.9%	29,770	4,830
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	15,930	131	0.8%	14,308	1,491
Windsor-Essex County	31,522	521	1.7%	27,804	3,197
York Region	89,403	903	1.0%	81,339	7,161
Totals:	956607	10628	1.11%	851365	94614

Last Updated: 2022-01-18 Time 02:41:37 GMT. Source: CSPaC