Ontario, Canada with highest active CoV cases in Canada still needs to vaccinate more

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Get fully vaccinated in Canada, warns infectious disease researchers. Or the COVID-19 Delta Variant will hit you like a Niagara Falls deluge.

Whereas the Ontario and Canadian federal governments are publishing data indicating Ontario this morning had COVID-19 case sums of 549,156, total deaths of 9,311, and a resolved cases sum of 538,421, the public health units of 34 reporting regions of Ontario report an even better overall picture: 556062 cases, 9273 deaths, and 545187 recoveries respectively.

In both parameters, active cases and the number of deaths, the regional public health units paint a better picture for Ontario. But at least one expert says this could be the lull before the storm.

The takeaway from this is that cases in Ontario are much higher than reported; but the active cases today are at 1,383, substantially improved over the national and provincial reports that lag a day and a half or more.

“Based on world standards, these numbers are very low. Canada has not been hit hard by the devastating effect of the Delta variant, perhaps partly because the country has fully vaccinated 55 percent of its population, and partly because it just hasn’t hit Canada yet, the way it has reached Europe and Asia,” explains Fred Harris, a biostatistician and infectious disease researcher based in Singapore.

“Get fully vaccinated in Canada,” warns infectious disease researchers.  Or Delta Variant “will hit you like a Niagara Falls deluge”.

“The best advise for Canadians is Get Vaccinated, Dr. Harris stressed. I could say put on a life jacket, crash helmet and fasten full shoulder harnesses to prepare for the equivalent deluge of a Niagara Falls waterfall when looking at some European nations and what has hit them. Indonesia for one example is being hit harder than any nation at this time. The delta variant can bring devastation. Get vaccinated and wear a mask,” he added.

Data for 25 July, 2021.  Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

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Ontario Regional Public Health Units – A granular analysis of a lull before a potential storm.

Researchers are warning Canadians not to become complacent in the ‘lull before the storm‘. “Get fully vaccinated and mask-up,” they say.

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Region	cases	deaths	recoveries	active
Algoma	405	6	399	0
Brant County	3429	20	3403	6
Chatham-Kent	1903	17	1880	6
Durham Region	25360	374	24931	55
Eastern Ontario	4739	111	4621	7
Grey-Bruce	2050	9	1899	142
Haldimand-Norfolk	2725	48	2662	15
Haliburton-Kawartha-Pine Ridge	2221	76	2144	1
Halton Region	18142	236	17861	45
Hamilton	21504	400	20991	113
Hastings-Prince Edward	1133	11	1120	2
Huron-Perth	1936	57	1865	14
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington	1580	6	1573	1
Lambton	3633	68	3562	3
Leeds Grenville & Lanark	1768	60	1706	2
Middlesex-London	12729	229	12446	54
Niagara Region	16336	419	15858	59
North Bay-Nipissing-Parry Sound	650	8	617	25
Northwestern	1098	8	1088	2
Ottawa	27774	593	27138	43
Peel Region	111758	824	110805	129
Peterborough	1628	22	1601	5
Porcupine	2135	30	2070	35
Renfrew Region	754	9	739	6
Simcoe-Muskoka	12350	255	12065	30
Southwestern Ontario	3932	84	3831	17
Sudbury & District	2178	31	2141	6
Thunder Bay	3341	64	3276	1
Timiskaming	208	2	206	0
Toronto	170476	3600	166568	308
Waterloo	18271	292	17845	134
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	8283	126	8125	32
Windsor Essex County	16856	435	16404	17
York Region	52777	743	51966	68
Totals:	556062	9273	545406	1383

Last Updated: 2021-07-25 Time 12:07:16 GMT Source: CSPaC

Canada Data for June 28, 2022.

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Canada	Cases	Deaths	Cured	Active
Reported:	3,941,183	41,879 1.06% CFR	3,847,110	52,194
Estimate:	21,794,742	54,442 *0.25% IFR	21,274,518	288,633

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada Provinces	Deaths	CFR%	Cases	Cured	Active
COVID-19 Totals:	41,879	1.06	3,941,183	3,847,110	52,194
* Quebec	15,559	1.43	1,085,058	1,059,985	9,514
Ontario	13,445	1.01	1,337,296	1,303,792	20,059
Alberta	4,604	0.78	587,890	574,468	8,818
BC	3,722	1.00	373,985	364,642	5,621
Manitoba	2,025	1.39	145,326	141,121	2,180
Sask	1,395	1.00	138,992	135,512	2,085
First Nations	740	0.67	110,221	108,013	1,468
NB	421	0.63	66,345	64,929	995
Nova Scotia	421	0.42	99,514	97,600	1,493
NL	187	0.40	46,647	45,760	700
* PEI	45	0.11	39,998	39,363	590
Yukon	26	0.58	4,453	4,360	67
* NWT	22	0.18	12,135	12,094	19
Nunavut	7	0.20	3,531	3,471	53
Repatriates	0		13	13	0
Sub Totals	41,879	1.06	3,941,183	3,847,110	52,194

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,794,742 (56.25% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-06-27 are estimated to be 54,487 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,487 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54442 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54442 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

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Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.

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Health Unit	Cases	Deaths	CFR	Recoveries	Active
Algoma District	8,581	57	0.7%	8,445	79
Brant County	11,873	83	0.7%	11,741	49
Chatham-Kent	8,798	92	1.0%	8,683	23
Durham Region	63,071	496	0.8%	62,295	280
Eastern Ontario	16,097	218	1.4%	15,821	58
Grey Bruce	8,873	69	0.8%	8,767	37
Haldimand-Norfolk	8,810	83	0.9%	8,685	42
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge	9,498	111	1.2%	9,332	55
Halton Region	49,627	327	0.7%	49,057	243
Hamilton	58,974	571	1.0%	58,066	337
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties	10,388	63	0.6%	10,254	71
Huron Perth	7,428	111	1.5%	7,291	26
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington	17,560	60	0.3%	17,298	202
Lambton County	11,903	146	1.2%	11,723	34
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District	9,567	106	1.1%	9,357	104
Middlesex-London	38,523	401	1.0%	37,964	158
Niagara Region	41,584	548	1.3%	40,829	207
North Bay Parry Sound District	6,132	44	0.7%	6,037	51
Northwestern	9,604	22	0.2%	9,266	316
Ottawa	74,552	818	1.1%	73,252	482
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas	13,991	169	1.2%	13,767	55
Peel Region	186,616	1,356	0.7%	184,468	792
Peterborough County-City	7,607	80	1.1%	7,481	46
Porcupine	7,431	69	0.9%	7,321	41
Renfrew County And District	4,827	50	1.0%	4,744	33
Simcoe Muskoka District	46,634	438	0.9%	45,927	269
Sudbury And District	15,522	150	1.0%	15,240	132
Thunder Bay District	12,907	96	0.7%	12,640	171
Timiskaming	1,985	24	1.2%	1,946	15
Toronto	324,716	4,263	1.3%	318,653	1,800
Waterloo Region	46,756	421	0.9%	46,139	196
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	22,462	162	0.7%	22,193	107
Windsor-Essex County	44,224	632	1.4%	43,433	159
York Region	112,855	1,042	0.9%	111,193	620

Last Updated: 2022-06-28 Time 00:55:07 GMT. Source: CSPaC