CSPaC predicting a milder-outcome SARS2 surge in Canada by mid-August and possible fourth wave in the fall.



Predicted to start in August, periodic regional COVID-19 case spikes in Canada will be due to the Delta variant and relaxed mitigation, data now confirms.

The change is slight but the meaning is significant. Both the CSPaC and the IHME have predicted periodic COVID-19 case spikes in Canada due to the Delta variant, starting in August. Today the data is indicating exactly that, says biostatistician, Fred Harris, in Singapore.

Ontario, Alberta in particular, and British Columbia have, despite a long decline in active cases and deaths, with Quebec close behind, reached over 1000 in active COVID-19 cases in recent days despite a significant drop in testing, said Dr. Harris in an email response to FPMag questions.

 “The situation is likely worse than the data indicates says the biostatistician, and confirmed by Canadian public health officials, according to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.


by Sharon Santiago and Micheal John


Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, said on Friday, “While most jurisdictions, remain out of the epidemic growth pattern, some are showing signs of increased disease activity and Rt [infection spread per infected person] trending above one, as restrictions have been eased,” she said. “This growth is not unexpected, but it will be important to respond to new cases and clusters through testing, case finding and targeted vaccination efforts to slow the spread.”

“If Rt remains persistently above one for several weeks,” Dr. Tam continued, “with predominance of the highly contagious Delta variant, we could expect to see a return to rapid epidemic growth, particularly as measures that slow the spread are eased.”

Confirming Dr. Harris’ concerns, “case numbers and positivity rates [in Alberta] are currently low, but surging, driven by the more infectious delta variant. Alberta had 1,173 active cases on Tuesday [reaching 1,655 on Friday] with a test positivity rate of 2.54 per cent.  “Those are all indicators that we’re on our way to a fourth wave,” said Dr. James Talbot, a former chief medical officer for the province and a public health adjunct professor at the University of Alberta, the state-sponsored CBC reported.

Click any image to enlarge and read.

Incipient Significant surge in Canada

The B.1.617.2 ‘India’ (delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2 has begun circulating a little in Canada and in 100+ other countries according to the World Health Organization. It is unknown what impact that will have on Canada which is having a very successful vaccination programme. despite the efficacy of vaccines, mask wearing is indicated, according to experts.


Alberta had 1,173 active cases on Tuesday [reaching 1,655 on Friday] with a test positivity rate of 2.54 per cent.


Video: ABC is reporting that the USA is asking all persons, vaccinated or not to wear masks indoors. Predicting surges in areas where vaccinations are the lowest.


The upturn in active cases is expected as COVID-19 mitigation efforts are relaxed, suggests CSPaC expert.

“We have observed a slight change over two weeks where demographics and genomics suggest the importation of the Delta variant which is significantly more infectious than the Alpha variant that was predominant in Canada this past spring. Canada will not escape a surge caused by the Delta variant and it is possible the country could face a fourth wave of new infections in the fall, but hopefully nothing like the monstrous two waves experienced to date. Getting vaccinated and wearing masks is what the global communities’ experts are urging to deny new infections and more mutations,” said Fred Harris, biostatistician and infectious disease researcher based in Singapore for the Civil Society Partners against COVID19.


Graph shows a slight increase in daily active cases in Canada over the past three days.

In parts of Canada the Rt has reached R2 according to Provincial Public Health Units.

Rt is climbing in Canada

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, said on Friday, “While most jurisdictions, remain out of the epidemic growth pattern, some are showing signs of increased disease activity and Rt [infection spread per infected person] trending above one, as restrictions have been eased,” she said. “This growth is not unexpected, but it will be important to respond to new cases and clusters through testing, case finding and targeted vaccination efforts to slow the spread.” Source: Public Health Canada

Canadian COVID-19 Data live in real time for September 29, 2022

source: CSPaC

Population: 38,749,252 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:4,259,37045,180 1.06% CFR4,166,86947,321
Estimate:23,554,31658,734 *0.25% IFR23,042,786261,685

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:45,1801.064,259,3704,166,86947,321
* Quebec16,7171.401,193,9641,163,98213,265
Ontario14,3420.981,459,3531,428,79816,213
Alberta4,8720.80605,757594,1556,730
BC4,2531.11384,266375,7444,269
Manitoba2,1431.43149,622145,8171,662
Sask1,5071.05143,747140,6431,597
NB4760.6276,31674,992848
Nova Scotia5180.42123,549121,6581,373
NL2350.4651,44650,639572
* PEI570.1151,41050,782571
Yukon310.634,8854,80054
NWT220.1911,51111,361128
Nunavut70.203,5313,48539
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals45,1801.064,259,3704,166,86947,321

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec and * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 23,554,316 (60.79% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-09-28 are estimated to be 58,886 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

58,886 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

58734 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 58734 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District9,647650.7%9,417165
Brant County13,058980.8%12,819141
Chatham-Kent9,7521001.0%9,532120
Hamilton65,3946080.9%64,108678
Ottawa81,9858861.1%80,397702
Durham Region67,6015100.8%66,648443
Eastern Ontario17,9522431.4%17,473236
Grey Bruce9,925790.8%9,705141
Haldimand-Norfolk9,618921.0%9,43690
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge10,8191261.2%10,550143
Halton Region53,4273510.7%52,710366
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties12,340840.7%11,849407
Huron Perth8,3261251.5%8,078123
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington20,403790.4%19,968356
Lambton County12,9421511.2%12,636155
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District11,2831141.0%10,878291
Middlesex-London42,8044451.0%41,850509
Niagara Region45,7935731.3%44,829391
North Bay Parry Sound District7,509620.8%7,306141
Northwestern12,273360.3%12,067170
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas15,7641831.2%15,245336
Peel Region196,4991,4270.7%193,9381,134
Peterborough County-City8,8061001.1%8,517189
Porcupine8,247770.9%8,09674
Renfrew County And District5,920631.1%5,733124
Simcoe Muskoka District51,0014861.0%50,016499
Sudbury And District18,1421680.9%17,651323
Thunder Bay District15,5151170.8%15,099299
Timiskaming2,345251.1%2,27446
Toronto350,7914,3961.3%344,3242,071
Waterloo Region50,9374730.9%50,118346
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph24,5281750.7%24,127226
Windsor-Essex County48,1526691.4%46,901582
York Region121,9451,0930.9%120,078774
Last Updated: 2022-09-29 Time 00:09:20 GMT. Source: CSPaC