Sum of 1B SARS2 infections, 2M deaths are new global milestones
Estimate: global reported cases + unreported asymptomatic & mild infections total: 1,021,793,518 while deaths exceed 2 million (248 territories plus naval/commercial sea-going vessels).
The Civil Society (NGO) Partners for Solidarity against COVID-19 tracking team in Singapore, led by biostatistician Fred Harris reports that, “of significance there are several models done by universities around the world which argued the COVID-19 pandemic will yield about 600 million cases including the asymptomatic and mild cases.”
- “That number is now estimated at 1,021,793,518 with an estimated IFR of 0.255 %,” says Harris.
- “The reported data is 93,570,821 confirmed cases in 248 countries/territories, 2,001,554 deaths at a CFR of 2.139% and 26,335,713 cases currently active, not yet resolved by cure or death; and
- “another milestone of considerable concern,” says Harris, “is the US excess deaths exceeding half a million this week.”
“We have continually compared our estimates from our algorithm to other models and the accuracy has been confirmed within reasonable margins of error. This also confirms the suspicion that the death rate is nowhere near as high as the raw reported numbers indicate but we worry that after a period of 12 to 18 months from the start of the pandemic, massive numbers of reinfections will have the cell damage of the initial course of the disease as a comorbid underlying chronic illness which might raise the infection fatality rates. We don’t know what will happen in this regard but it is a widespread worry. Reinfection is having bad outcomes at a higher rate.
“After continually running the algorithm since the early outbreak we [the partners’ tracking team] recently decided to publish the data and it seems safe to say the estimated total number of cases including asymptomatic and mild courses of the disease around the world is 1,021,793,518.
America leads the world by far in Active Covid-19 Cases
- At publication time there were 26,335,713 active COVID-19 cases across 248 nations and territories plus dozens of naval vessels and commercial ships.
- Of that 26.3 million, nearly nine million are Americans.
- This data indicates emergency-level stress on at least some US hospitals and American medical personnel.
“The graph below indicates the highest counts of active COVID-19 cases in the highest 25 countries.
A special note is that Sweden, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom do not accurately report patient recoveries in accordance with global standards and therefore their active case data is inaccurately high but it is what they each report it to be.
“This needs to be corrected,” say experts, “because the number of active cases is the data that would be needed to manage a number of important resource requirements”.
In other words, “these numbers were not always so important, but now they are critical indicator points for pandemic management,” notes Harris who went on to say that it is possible these nations keep records to themselves and do not publish them for public consumption.
This graph will update in real time as will the numbers and data below. The data in the above paragraphs of this article are referring to teh publication data.
Live Data Updating hourly. January 26, 2022
253 Locales report 359,513,936 COVID-19 cases of which there are 63,957,770 active cases, therefore 289,901,888 recoveries and 5,654,278 fatalities.
GMT 2022-01-26 10:26
Data reported should be in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in each locale as their governments report daily or from time to time.
All data researched and published by The RINJ Foundation and partners in CSPaC.
©The RINJ Foundation 2020-2022-01-26T10:26:34Z #Singapore-SK-HUK-77
RINJ is with Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19.
SARS2 Update 2022-01-26 10:26 GMT
- Global Population: 7,871,660,945
- 253 Regions reported 359,513,936 cases
- 63,957,770 cases active
- 5,654,278 people reported killed by COVID-19
- 1.57% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
- 289,901,888 survived COVID-19
- 23.43% of all humans (1,844,306,491) have been infected
- 0.70% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
(influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
- 12,942,359 Total deaths (estimated actual) including errors, unexpected deaths with pneumonia indications with no history, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.
- 111.83% of the USA may have been infected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (371,765,041.47) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
- 1.23% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
- 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
- 1,003,766 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is higher than what CSPaC is showing.
The American Epicenter has 42.59 % of global 'active' cases (27,242,569 USA / 63,957,770 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.
Below: CSPAC estimated 2022-01-26 10:26 GMT COVID-19 data for India.
EPICENTER-2: India (40,085,116)
Note: India's reported death sum and cured data are widely seen among epidemiologists and biostatisticians as unreliable. For example, 2,701,298 is CSPAC estimated sum of deaths while India reports 491,154, creating the largest discepency in the world. India might only report hospital tested cases. Sources among hundreds of nurses and other medical practitioners provide a picture that in summary concludes most cases never present in a hospital especially in northern provinces where health care is less available and utilization is low anyway because of poverty, hence most people die at home in India. This theory could explain discrepancies between reported data and algorithmic estimates.
Data collected and reported by: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19