Warning signs that mutated virus may get the best of us.



Despite energetic efforts to vaccinate populations, a trend pattern in many large countries, particularly in the USA which is the COVID-19 pandemic epicenter with 60% of the world’s active cases today, is alarming scientists and compelling warnings, “not to ease up on disease prevention measures”.


by Micheal John


US COVID19 drop in cases all but stopped, levelled too high say scientists. Next few days may be the harbinger of what is to come.

“Things are tenuous,” says Dr. Rochelle Walensky, head of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“The drop in cases has plateaued too high and that likely indicates mutated virus spread,” says biostatistician.

In Canada there is a pattern to indicate that lockdowns in high community transmission regions have worked explicitly. This has stymied the spread of more dangerous mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Easing up on these restrictions could impose a death sentence for many thousands of Canadians.

But in the United States, what has happened is “just plain scary” says biostatistician Fred Harris with the Civil Society Solidarity Against COVID-19 team.

The Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19 team sent its data to the US CDC and the WHO after meeting with partners 8 hours ago to discuss the subtle but important changes in many countries.

CDC Photo: Dr. Rochelle Walensky, CDC Director

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, CDC Director
“Things are tenuous. Now is not the time to relax restrictions,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, CDC Director said Friday. “Although we have been experiencing large declines in cases and hospital admissions over the past six weeks, these declines follow the highest peak we have experienced in the pandemic.”
2021-02-26
19:05:15 GMT
Photo Credit: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

Raising an Alarm. Three Large Countries that need urgent assistance getting vaccinations rolling.

Malaysia (2,253 cases 24hrs), Philippines (2,647 cases 24hrs) and Indonesia (8,232 cases 24hrs), in the past 24 hours have shown alarming numbers of new cases despite mitigation efforts. Mainland Southeast Asia has almost none which may stem from the fact that the virus has been in that region since at least 2010, and people are likely immune,” says Harris.

“These three countries are in big trouble if our suspicions are correct.”

Illustrating the conflict between public health and economic considerations, in the past week the economic czars of the Philippines have been pushing for a nation-wide reduction of mitigation measures. When presented to Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte he emphatically said “No” and “wait for the rollout of vaccines”.

Pesident  Duterte’s spokesperson, Harry Roque, later said in a statement that Duterte “gives a higher premium to public health and safety” over economic factors. Filipino netizens, seemingly with a sense of the direness of the mutant VOCs,  promptly applauded the decision.

Philippines dailies to yesterday,

Philippines dailies to yesterday show steady growth in cases and a steady rise in Case Fatality rates.  Malaysia and Indonesia are worse. What the three have in common is that they are island (Archipelago) members of the Southeast Asian region and they each have been infected with all of the known VOCs (Variants of Concern) say biostatisticians tracking the world spread of COVID-19. Source Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19



In Canada, the province with the most cases, Ontario, has issued an updated statement (Evidence on covid-19 pandemic 2021-02-25) in which it declares that “declines in cases, hospitalization and ICU occupancy are slowing… Variants of concern such as B.1.1.7 continue to spread across Ontario. Cases,  hospitalizations, and ICU admissions will likely soon increase.”

That warning was issued Thursday, and went on to say that some 40% of new cases seem to be a mutated, more dangerous strain of the virus.

It is the red trend line of Active Cases that has scientists alarmed.

It is the red trend line of Active Cases that has scientists alarmed. It has leveled at a dangerously high mark. This is the more dangerous mutated virus, making its presence known, says biostatistician Fred Harris. Source Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

USA Dailies

USA COVID-19 Dailies

USA COVID-19 Dailies. US CFR has recently increased from 1.7 to 1.8%. Dr. Rochelle Walensky of teh CDC has raised an alarm about the plateauing of US cases far too high. Source Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

 

“The science community is now worried about many countries where the conflict between public health and a failing economy, hunger and pandemic-weariness is dire as the more virulent B.1.1.7 variant takes hold,” says Harris.

“The Czech Republic’s Prime Minister Andrej Babis announced a plan to lockdown citizens and close many children’s schools,” Harris continued.

“We need to limit movement for three weeks because the new variants are more aggressive,” the Czech Republic’s Prime Minister Andrej Babis explained on Thursday night. “We can see a dramatic increase of patients in hospitals.”

Twenty minutes ago, Reuters published a similar report from the CDC Director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, wherein she is warning Americans not to let their guard down and that the plateau where the descent in case numbers has levelled is dangerously high.

Many scientists are now saying, consider wearing  an N-95/FFP-2/KN-95 Filtering Face Piece (FFP) Respirator or if not available double up to a tight fit with a procedure mask and a three-layer cloth mask.

It is contraindicated to wear anything over top of a FFP respirator but that is not the case with the spit-barrier surgical procedure mask.

Fit-test the respirator, or double-mask combination adjusting as needed  and wear it when going out, say doctors like those at Harvard University. Dr. Abraar Karan recently told CNN’s Dr. Sanjay Gupta that if everyone used an N95 face mask, it would stop the pandemic in four weeks.

 


Watch a free training video. This is a presentation of  University of Nebraska’s epidemiology experts.

How to get more uses from a N95, FFP2, KF94, or KN95

 

Dynamic Data Follows for June 26, 2022

Source Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

U.S.A. (pop. 332,803,287)

  • CoV19 Reported Cases: 88,380,921
  • Current Reported Deaths:(CFR: 1.19%): 1,035,062 CSPaC.net estimated actual: 1,303,044
  • Cured: 84,430,789
  • Beta experimental: All time reported + unreported asymptomatic people maybe not sick, not immune, but possibly infectious and including the many people who have had several mild or asymptomatic infections: 482,608,934.15
  • 145.01% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (482,608,934.15) human infections, some of which may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.19% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 1,303,044 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is estimating.
Rest of the world excluding USA.
  • CoV19 Cases: 459,851,871
  • Deaths: 5,334,856 | 1.16%
  • Cured: 441,147,033
  • Reported + estimated all unreported 3,031,727,339

Note: Total statistics for the United States do not include these offshore territories. The US Military is included as if it is an offshore territory, not reported as continental USA data but as USA overall totals and included in world totals. FPMag evaluates these separately for many reasons.

TerritoryCasesDeathsRecovered
Continental US87,271,0551,035,062 | 1.19%83,719,584
+US Military661,831688 | 0.1%628,967
+Guam51,234371 | 0.7%50,338
+Puerto Rico 358,0584,519 | 1.26%327,367
+US Virgin Islands20,760118 | 0.6%20,423
+Northern Mariana Islands11,56934 | 0.3%11,477
+American Samoa6,41431 | 0.5%5,958
Totals88,380,9211,040,79284,430,789

The American Epicenter including ALL Territories has 17.87 % of global 'active' cases (2,909,340 USA (incl territories) / 16,285,052 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Abundant proof that vaccines are working, an observation derived from unrelated data analysis.

As the epicenter we look at continental USA together with US territories and without. The significant decline in Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the continental United States particularly, during 2 0 2 1, since vaccines became available, is believed to be due to vaccination rates and is abundant proof that the vaccines are working.

In order to avoid letting countries that refuse to report the sum of case recoveries, thus skewing global calculations, Burundi, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Britain, most provinces of Canada, Ecuador, FaeroeIslands, Falklands, Finland, France, French Polynesia, Hong Kong, Iceland, Mongolia, Laos, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Ukraine, South Korea, Tunisia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Spain and Sweden 'recoveries' are estimated based on the current reported global recoveries as a percentage of all cases. (([reported recoveries]) divide (548,232,792 [Global Reported Sum of All Cases] less 29,596,809 [France Sum of Cases] less 901,739 [Ecuador Sum of Cases] less 12,681,820 [Spain Sum of Cases] less 8,152,778 [Netherlands Sum of Cases] less 2,515,769 [Sweden Sum of Cases] less 3,613,464 [Peru Sum of Cases])) = 96% a coefficient which is then adjusted according to the number of cases in the past 30 days and the new coefficient is applied to the sum of each of these nation's cumulative cases to estimate the missing recoveries data. In the case of France some additional hospital-sourced recovery data is factored.

Reported:
All USASum of CasesDeathsRecoveredActive
Continental USA87,271,0551,035,06283,719,5842,516,409
USA+territories88,380,9211,040,79284,430,789 2,909,340
Estimated:



USA+territories482,608,934.151,303,044466,902,26314,407,669

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

See also IHME Estimates for America.

SARS2 Update 2022-06-26 T:16:19 GMT

  • 254 Regions reported 548,232,792 cases
  • 16,285,052 cases active
  • 6,369,918 people reported killed by COVID-19
  • 1.16% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
  • 525,577,822 survived COVID-19

Beta Technology Global Estimates

EPICENTER: USA (87,271,055)

  • 145.01% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (482,608,934.15) human infections, some of which may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.19% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 1,303,044 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is showing.