Canada exceeds 800,000 COVID-19 cases as active cases plummet



As Canada surges past the 800,000 cumulative case sum, a close look at the data shows ‘active cases’ plummeting.

“This is extremely good news,” says Dr. Anderson of The RINJ Foundation, a Canada-based humanitarian NGO.


by Sharon Santiago and Melissa Hemingway


Active cases are a measure of what a nation’s health care system may need to contend with. Marginally symptomatic cases can quickly become urgent care events.

COVID-19 cases, by World Health Organization standards, are resolved either by death or recovery.

Today, scientists know that recovery‘ is somewhat ambiguous because many patients live with some effects of the disease for long periods of time. Death on the other hand is not ambiguous at all and is the other manner in which cases resolve.

Hence it is important to look at these factors in context.

At publication time Canada had a case fatality rate (CFR) of 2.57 which is substantially higher than the global average of 2.18%. For a comparison, the USA has a CFR of 1.7% and has held that rate for a lengthy period of time.

At least 4-New highly transmissible Variants of COVID-19 are in Canada. Two are from Brazil, one from the UK and one from South Africa. More are emerging daily of which few will pose new dangers.

While the Canadian government has taken the significant step of planning a vaccine manufacturing facility to be run by the National Research Council, it has not taken significant action to manufacture personal protection equipment in Canada.

For some reason Canada’s government seems unwilling to admit it was wrong from the outset about personal protective measures for Canadians.

SARS-CoV-2 is in the air as an aerosolized pathogen that from deep in the lungs of infected persons or from infected noses can linger for a long time once exhaled by an infected person.

Including unreported asymptomatic infections, an estimated 23% of the Canadian population has been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and able to spread the disease through the air.

The correct protection for all Canadians who leave their homes for any purpose is a filtering facepiece respirator such as the N95, European FFP-2 or the KN-95 from Asia.

Harvard Professor says N95 mask wearing by everyone will end Pandemic in a month. FPMag medical authors and sources have been saying that for over a year. Why do some governments ignore the message of scientists?

 

Teaching Video: fit-test and wear a filtering facepiece respirator mask that can be reused up to five times.

 

Of the 45,463 Canadian active cases on todays date, 1,182 Canadians will die based on current trends and not counting tomorrow’s new cases in Canada.

Canada is not out of the woods by any measure.

Canada hits 800,000 cases

Canada hits 800,000 COVID-19 cases as active cases plummet.
Every indication says that Canada is getting COVID-19 under some control with harsh measures but deaths remain high compared to global averages.  Note: On 17 July 2020, the province of Quebec revised all of its criteria for establishing recoveries. The Institut national de sante publique claimed “the previous method resulted in ‘significant underestimates’ of recovered cases.” This error correction caused a radical drop in active cases nationwide from a total of 27,603 on 16 July to 4,058 on 17 July. This consequently looks bizarre in all graphs. It also creates an inexplicable blip in active cases at the time. Source: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19

 

The cost of Lockdowns

“It appears that thus far, lockdowns have saved 1,000 lives this year, in round numbers,” notes Fred Harris, a computer scientist and biostatistician heading the Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19 team in Singapore.

“Canada was in a big spot of trouble.”

“The governments of Canada pre-empted a catastrophe with lockdowns in Ontario and Quebec and will save thousands of lives, as the public health actions continue,” added Harris, “but it is unfortunate that Canadians disregarded public health guidelines and even more unfortunate that those guidelines were so lenient. Canadians should have been wearing filtering facepiece respirators, especially so when considering the persistently high case fatality risk that Canada endures, among the highest in the world for much of the time of the pandemic.”

According to Statistics Canada‘s Friday updates, the jobless rate rose a little more than half a percentage point to 9.4 per cent. That translates to 858k fewer jobs over the past year since February 2020. The report also indicates that 529,000 Canadians, while still employed are working far fewer hours and receiving much less compensation.

Most job losses were in Ontario and Quebec provinces while Western provinces actually rose slightly.

Asked about the woes of complainants in the wealthy parallel economy to  average Canadians whether there was any equity in the lockdown moves, Harris replied sourly that “statistically, dead Canadian workers would lower the unemployment numbers, and conversely, 200K unemployed are better off alive and seeking employment or starting their self-employment.”

“Countries like China, Singapore, South Korea and New Zealand,” Harris continued, “where every single life matters as a precious responsibility of government policy and actions, the success in fighting this pandemic with a view to saving lives and protecting the health of the populations has resulted in a good pandemic outcome and prosperous economy restarts.”

“That’s the statistical side. On the moral side, fighting like hell to save every life that can be saved is the only humane way forward. That’s what leaders like Xi Jinping of China,  Jacinda Ardern, of New Zealand and Moon Jae-in of South Korea are doing and they are winning.”

 


 

Dynamic Live Global COVID-19 Data June 27, 2022
Source: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:3,941,18341,879 1.06% CFR3,847,11052,194
Estimate:21,794,74254,442 *0.25% IFR21,274,518288,633

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:41,8791.063,941,1833,847,11052,194
* Quebec15,5591.431,085,0581,059,9859,514
Ontario13,4451.011,337,2961,303,79220,059
Alberta4,6040.78587,890574,4688,818
BC3,7221.00373,985364,6425,621
Manitoba2,0251.39145,326141,1212,180
Sask1,3951.00138,992135,5122,085
First Nations7400.67110,221108,0131,468
NB4210.6366,34564,929995
Nova Scotia4210.4299,51497,6001,493
NL1870.4046,64745,760700
* PEI450.1139,99839,363590
Yukon260.584,4534,36067
* NWT220.1812,13512,09419
Nunavut70.203,5313,47153
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals41,8791.063,941,1833,847,11052,194

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,794,742 (56.25% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-06-27 are estimated to be 54,487 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,487 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54442 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54442 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District8,581570.7%8,44579
Brant County11,873830.7%11,74149
Chatham-Kent8,798921.0%8,68323
Durham Region63,0714960.8%62,295280
Eastern Ontario16,0972181.4%15,82158
Grey Bruce8,873690.8%8,76737
Haldimand-Norfolk8,810830.9%8,68542
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge9,4981111.2%9,33255
Halton Region49,6273270.7%49,057243
Hamilton58,9745711.0%58,066337
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties10,388630.6%10,25471
Huron Perth7,4281111.5%7,29126
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington17,560600.3%17,298202
Lambton County11,9031461.2%11,72334
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District9,5671061.1%9,357104
Middlesex-London38,5234011.0%37,964158
Niagara Region41,5845481.3%40,829207
North Bay Parry Sound District6,132440.7%6,03751
Northwestern9,604220.2%9,266316
Ottawa74,5528181.1%73,252482
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas13,9911691.2%13,76755
Peel Region186,6161,3560.7%184,468792
Peterborough County-City7,607801.1%7,48146
Porcupine7,431690.9%7,32141
Renfrew County And District4,827501.0%4,74433
Simcoe Muskoka District46,6344380.9%45,927269
Sudbury And District15,5221501.0%15,240132
Thunder Bay District12,907960.7%12,640171
Timiskaming1,985241.2%1,94615
Toronto324,7164,2631.3%318,6531,800
Waterloo Region46,7564210.9%46,139196
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph22,4621620.7%22,193107
Windsor-Essex County44,2246321.4%43,433159
York Region112,8551,0420.9%111,193620
Last Updated: 2022-06-27 Time 10:09:17 GMT. Source: CSPaC

254 Locales report 548,568,189 COVID-19 cases of which there are 16,184,869 active cases, therefore 526,012,789 recoveries and 6,370,531 fatalities.

GMT 2022-06-27 10:09

Data reported should be in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in each locale as their governments report daily or from time to time. All data researched and published by The RINJ Foundation and partners in CSPaC.

©The RINJ Foundation 2020-2022-06-27T10:09:17Z #Singapore-SK-HUK-77
RINJ is with Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19.

SARS2 Update 2022-06-27 10:09 GMT

  • Global Population: 7,903,501,966
  • 254 Regions reported 548,568,189 cases
  • 16,184,869 cases active
  • 6,370,531 people reported killed by COVID-19
  • 1.16% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
  • 526,012,789 survived COVID-19
Beta Technology Global Estimates
  • 38.38% of all humans (3,033,582,085) have been infected
  • 0.63% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
    (influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
  • 19,104,903 Total deaths (CSPaC.net estimated actual) including errors, unexpected deaths with pneumonia indications with no history, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

USA (88,391,882)
  • 145.03% of the USA may have been infected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (482,657,587.09) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.19% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 1,303,175 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is showing.
  • See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

    The American Epicenter has 17.53 % of global 'active' cases (2,837,462 USA / 16,184,869 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Below: CSPAC estimated 2022-06-27 10:08 GMT COVID-19 data for India.

EPICENTER-2: India (43,407,046)

Reported*Cases*Deaths*CFR*Recovered
India43,407,046525,0201.2%42,787,606
*Reported by India but understated.

Note: India's reported death sum and cured data are widely seen among epidemiologists and biostatisticians as unreliable. For example, 3,045,063 is CSPAC estimated sum of deaths while India reports 525,020, creating the largest discepency in the world. India might only report hospital tested cases. Sources among hundreds of nurses and other medical practitioners provide a picture that in summary concludes most cases never present in a hospital especially in northern provinces where health care is less available and utilization is low anyway because of poverty, hence most people die at home in India. This theory could explain discrepancies between reported data and algorithmic estimates.

LocaleCasesDeathsActive
India reported:43,407,046525,02094,420
India estimates:240,040,9643,045,063380,439

Data collected and reported by: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19