Canada exceeds 800,000 COVID-19 cases as active cases plummet



As Canada surges past the 800,000 cumulative case sum, a close look at the data shows ‘active cases’ plummeting.

“This is extremely good news,” says Dr. Anderson of The RINJ Foundation, a Canada-based humanitarian NGO.


by Sharon Santiago and Melissa Hemingway


Active cases are a measure of what a nation’s health care system may need to contend with. Marginally symptomatic cases can quickly become urgent care events.

COVID-19 cases, by World Health Organization standards, are resolved either by death or recovery.

Today, scientists know that recovery‘ is somewhat ambiguous because many patients live with some effects of the disease for long periods of time. Death on the other hand is not ambiguous at all and is the other manner in which cases resolve.

Hence it is important to look at these factors in context.

At publication time Canada had a case fatality rate (CFR) of 2.57 which is substantially higher than the global average of 2.18%. For a comparison, the USA has a CFR of 1.7% and has held that rate for a lengthy period of time.

At least 4-New highly transmissible Variants of COVID-19 are in Canada. Two are from Brazil, one from the UK and one from South Africa. More are emerging daily of which few will pose new dangers.

While the Canadian government has taken the significant step of planning a vaccine manufacturing facility to be run by the National Research Council, it has not taken significant action to manufacture personal protection equipment in Canada.

For some reason Canada’s government seems unwilling to admit it was wrong from the outset about personal protective measures for Canadians.

SARS-CoV-2 is in the air as an aerosolized pathogen that from deep in the lungs of infected persons or from infected noses can linger for a long time once exhaled by an infected person.

Including unreported asymptomatic infections, an estimated 23% of the Canadian population has been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and able to spread the disease through the air.

The correct protection for all Canadians who leave their homes for any purpose is a filtering facepiece respirator such as the N95, European FFP-2 or the KN-95 from Asia.

Harvard Professor says N95 mask wearing by everyone will end Pandemic in a month. FPMag medical authors and sources have been saying that for over a year. Why do some governments ignore the message of scientists?

 

Teaching Video: fit-test and wear a filtering facepiece respirator mask that can be reused up to five times.

 

Of the 45,463 Canadian active cases on todays date, 1,182 Canadians will die based on current trends and not counting tomorrow’s new cases in Canada.

Canada is not out of the woods by any measure.

Canada hits 800,000 cases

Canada hits 800,000 COVID-19 cases as active cases plummet.
Every indication says that Canada is getting COVID-19 under some control with harsh measures but deaths remain high compared to global averages.  Note: On 17 July 2020, the province of Quebec revised all of its criteria for establishing recoveries. The Institut national de sante publique claimed “the previous method resulted in ‘significant underestimates’ of recovered cases.” This error correction caused a radical drop in active cases nationwide from a total of 27,603 on 16 July to 4,058 on 17 July. This consequently looks bizarre in all graphs. It also creates an inexplicable blip in active cases at the time. Source: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19

 

The cost of Lockdowns

“It appears that thus far, lockdowns have saved 1,000 lives this year, in round numbers,” notes Fred Harris, a computer scientist and biostatistician heading the Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19 team in Singapore.

“Canada was in a big spot of trouble.”

“The governments of Canada pre-empted a catastrophe with lockdowns in Ontario and Quebec and will save thousands of lives, as the public health actions continue,” added Harris, “but it is unfortunate that Canadians disregarded public health guidelines and even more unfortunate that those guidelines were so lenient. Canadians should have been wearing filtering facepiece respirators, especially so when considering the persistently high case fatality risk that Canada endures, among the highest in the world for much of the time of the pandemic.”

According to Statistics Canada‘s Friday updates, the jobless rate rose a little more than half a percentage point to 9.4 per cent. That translates to 858k fewer jobs over the past year since February 2020. The report also indicates that 529,000 Canadians, while still employed are working far fewer hours and receiving much less compensation.

Most job losses were in Ontario and Quebec provinces while Western provinces actually rose slightly.

Asked about the woes of complainants in the wealthy parallel economy to  average Canadians whether there was any equity in the lockdown moves, Harris replied sourly that “statistically, dead Canadian workers would lower the unemployment numbers, and conversely, 200K unemployed are better off alive and seeking employment or starting their self-employment.”

“Countries like China, Singapore, South Korea and New Zealand,” Harris continued, “where every single life matters as a precious responsibility of government policy and actions, the success in fighting this pandemic with a view to saving lives and protecting the health of the populations has resulted in a good pandemic outcome and prosperous economy restarts.”

“That’s the statistical side. On the moral side, fighting like hell to save every life that can be saved is the only humane way forward. That’s what leaders like Xi Jinping of China,  Jacinda Ardern, of New Zealand and Moon Jae-in of South Korea are doing and they are winning.”

 


 

Dynamic Live Global COVID-19 Data January 22, 2022
Source: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19

Population: 38,585,269 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:2,891,41032,376 1.12% CFR2,565,901293,133
Estimate:14,832,93352,255 *0.35% IFR13,163,0721,503,772

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:32,3761.122,891,4102,565,901293,133
Quebec12,6981.54824,941761,21451,029
Ontario10,8651.10984,359898,58974,905
Alberta3,4290.73466,616401,57261,615
BC2,5290.82308,079265,76539,785
Manitoba1,4921.31114,02175,95436,575
SK9690.91106,32893,16012,199
First Nations5900.8966,13160,1155,426
NB2010.8025,00320,0834,719
Nova Scotia1280.3933,08327,5255,430
NL300.2114,52211,8162,676
Yukon150.532,8202,592213
NWT130.284,7003,3221,365
Nunavut50.391,2971,097195
PEI20.045,6283,1992,427
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals32,3761.122,891,4102,565,901293,133

Note: Above is region/county Health Unit reports from the province of Ontario and the individual units.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 14,832,933 (38.44% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.35%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-01-21 are estimated to be 51,915 Using estimated IFR of 0.35% which is far below global average IFR.

51,915 (0.35% IFR) is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

52255 Is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 52255 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District3,188220.7%2,596570
Brant County8,733510.6%7,784898
Chatham-Kent5,473510.9%4,792630
Durham Region48,0274010.8%42,7784,848
Eastern Ontario11,6971661.4%10,2921,239
Grey Bruce5,069370.7%4,717315
Haldimand-Norfolk5,975751.3%5,260640
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge5,481741.4%4,710697
Halton Region38,2452730.7%35,1332,839
Hamilton43,4374471.0%39,4053,585
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties5,329290.5%4,550750
Huron Perth4,718801.7%4,236402
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington8,167280.3%7,591548
Lambton County8,1511011.2%7,098952
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District5,141731.4%4,494574
Middlesex-London27,1392801.0%24,1352,724
Niagara Region29,6324681.6%26,5042,660
North Bay Parry Sound District2,464110.4%2,239214
Northwestern2,828120.4%2,407409
Ottawa54,7816571.2%49,9624,162
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas9,4931301.4%8,521842
Peel Region159,3681,0570.7%148,11410,197
Peterborough County-City4,590410.9%4,029520
Porcupine3,942330.8%3,485424
Renfrew County And District2,473170.7%2,094362
Simcoe Muskoka District29,9343091.0%26,7892,836
Sudbury And District8,166740.9%6,6621,430
Thunder Bay District6,020731.2%5,075872
Timiskaming90360.7%769128
Toronto259,0623,8571.5%239,80915,396
Waterloo Region36,3053340.9%32,1773,794
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph16,4251330.8%15,0391,253
Windsor-Essex County32,5065381.7%29,4692,499
York Region91,4979271.0%85,8744,696
Totals:984359108651.10%89858974905
Last Updated: 2022-01-22 Time 03:22:10 GMT. Source: CSPaC

253 Locales report 345,958,614 COVID-19 cases of which there are 59,839,384 active cases, therefore 280,500,009 recoveries and 5,619,221 fatalities.

GMT 2022-01-22 03:22

Data reported should be in accordance with the applied case definitions and testing strategies in each locale as their governments report daily or from time to time. All data researched and published by The RINJ Foundation and partners in CSPaC.

©The RINJ Foundation 2020-2022-01-22T03:22:09Z #Singapore-SK-HUK-77
RINJ is with Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19.

SARS2 Update 2022-01-22 03:22 GMT

  • Global Population: 7,871,660,945
  • 253 Regions reported 345,958,614 cases
  • 59,839,384 cases active
  • 5,619,221 people reported killed by COVID-19
  • 1.62% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
  • 280,500,009 survived COVID-19
Beta Technology Global Estimates
  • 22.55% of all humans (1,774,767,689) have been infected
  • 0.72% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
    (influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
  • 12,862,115 Total deaths (estimated actual) including errors, unexpected deaths with pneumonia indications with no history, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.
USA (70,745,030)
  • 107.97% of the USA may have been infected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (358,926,462.36) persons, some of whom may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.26% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.27% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 969,101 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is higher than what CSPaC is showing.
  • The American Epicenter has 43.03 % of global 'active' cases (25,747,895 USA / 59,839,384 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Below: CSPAC estimated 2022-01-21 23:00 GMT COVID-19 data for India.

EPICENTER-2: India (38,901,485)

Reported*Cases*Deaths*CFR*Recovered
India38,901,485488,9111.3%36,290,709
*Reported by India but understated.

Note: India's reported death sum and cured data are widely seen among epidemiologists and biostatisticians as unreliable. For example, 2,688,962 is CSPAC estimated sum of deaths while India reports 488,911, creating the largest discepency in the world. India might only report hospital tested cases. Sources among hundreds of nurses and other medical practitioners provide a picture that in summary concludes most cases never present in a hospital especially in northern provinces where health care is less available and utilization is low anyway because of poverty, hence most people die at home in India. This theory could explain discrepancies between reported data and algorithmic estimates.

LocaleCasesDeathsActive
India reported:38,901,485488,9112,121,865
India estimates:199,564,6182,688,96210,704,318

Data collected and reported by: Civil Society Solidarity Partners against COVID-19