Canada surges past 2 Million COVID19 Cases as provinces struggle with Omicron

 Since 21 December 2021, the Canadian Province of Quebec has experienced an increase of over 30,000 COVID-19 reported cases including Christmas Day but not boxing day.  Biostatisticians  say Canada’s actual infection numbers have risen by about 200,000 cases or 10% of the total cumulative case sum since the 20th of December.

Positive rating on testing is around 20% across Canada.

Sneezing, runny nose, sore throat, headache? Assume you have the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and self-isolate at home. That is the message of at least a dozen Canadian doctors FPMag contacted.

“Quebec is the only province of Canada which has maintained steady, 24/7/365 transparency on what it knows about COVID-19 public health data since January 2020,” explains Kathy Poon, an intern at the  Civil Society Partners against COVID-19 tracking team in Singapore.

“It should be noted that with the number of home tests being used, case investigations and studies are no longer conducted as are contact tracing, which has been failing in North America for some time. Rapid testing kits are being preferred over Public Health PCR (reverse transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction) tests,” she added.

According to the CSPaC tracking team in Singapore, Canada’s actual infection numbers have risen by about 200,000 cases or 10% of the total accumulated since the 20th of December.

“Putting that in context, it is estimated that some 10,261,277 Canadians have been infected since early 2020, including untested patients showing no symptoms, or very mild symptoms. That number could be inflated by a large number of persons who have been infected twice,” explains Dr. Fred Harris, an infectious disease researcher and biostatistician,  of the Civil Society Partners against COVID-19 tracking team in Singapore.

What do doctors say?

“Omicron is delivering a grand slam. It’s like this: if you have a runny nose, it is likely Omicron. Self isolate and stop the spread. Omicron needs this different response. Vaccines alone are not going to walk humans out of this Omicron crisis hence all the tools must be used. Mask up, wash-up, socially distance, maintain hand hygiene, stay home. Get a third vaccine dose after a maximum of three months, which is the eligibility milestone in most jurisdictions around the world. Wear well-fitted medical respirator masks just like health-care workers. Omicron stays in the air for a long time after people have left the area hence a respirator mask is needed,” says Dr. Nassima al Amouri, a medical director for a global NGO.

NUrses under pressure from Omicron

Healthcare manpower versus volume of care requests is a ratio that may never have been this high in peacetime. Shortages of kits and reagents for testing are running low or in short supply in some regions of Canada, according to The Nurses Without Borders. Photo Credit: Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag

Be Kind Always

Let’s face it. We’re all tired of this pandemic. For many of us it has been the most confusing, anxiety-provoking time of our lives. It sometimes leaves us short tempered and frustrated. Public health staff, however, should not be on the receiving end of your anger. Try to make these times more tolerable by being kind to one another.

Lagging Indicators prevent epidemiologists from knowing what patient outcomes will be but the vast majority of cases are either mild or nearly asymptomatic.

Hospitals across Canada are under huge pressure owing to the numbers of infections plus the numbers of tests that are needed for urgent care patients arriving for unrelated treatments.

Healthcare manpower versus volume of care requests is a ratio that may never have been this bad. Shortages of kits and reagents for testing are running low or in short supply in some regions of Canada, according to The Nurses Without Borders.

Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Omicron or Delta variants following a two-dose or booster BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccination series: A Danish cohort study released 22 December 2021.

In this brief communication we are showing original research results with early estimates from Danish nationwide databases of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against the novel SARS-CoV-2
Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) up to five months after a primary vaccination series with the
BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccines. (Germany is urging boosters after three months.)
Our study provides evidence of protection against infection with the Omicron variant after
completion of a primary vaccination series with the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccines; in
particular, we found a VE against the Omicron variant of 55.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.5
to 73.7%) and 36.7% (95% CI: -69.9 to 76.4%) for the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines,
respectively, in the first month after primary vaccination. However, the VE is significantly lower than
that against Delta infection and declines rapidly over just a few months. The VE is re-established
upon revaccination with the BNT162b2 vaccine (54.6%, 95% CI: 30.4 to 70.4%).
Photo credit: Vials containing the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine sit on a table in preparation for vaccinations at Kadena Air Base, Japan, Jan. 4, 2021. As part of the DoD strategy for prioritizing, distributing and administering the COVID-19 vaccine, those providing direct medical care and emergency services will be prioritized to receive the vaccine at units based in Japan, including Kadena AB. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Anna Nolte)

“Most provinces of Canada have been promoting booster shots but there are no Omicron-variant-specific vaccines. Thus far, around the world, statistically, the Moderna full dose booster has been most effective in preventing infection from Omicron. Moderna recommends two full doses at 100mcg and not the more frugal .50ml and .25 ml.  But the success ratio is less than perfect, thus far. The mRNA pharmaceutical companies plan to have Omicron-specific vaccines available in March 2022,” says Dr. Harris.

“What we have available right now is 1273,” Dr. Paul Burton, Moderna’s chief medical officer, said in an interview last week.

“It’s highly effective, and it’s extremely safe. I think it will protect people through the coming holiday period and through these winter months, when we’re going to see the most severe pressure of Omicron,” said Dr. Burton.

“No boosters are guaranteeing the prevention of infection, but all may offer much protection against serious illness, according to closely studied data for the past 49 days, hence the advice of local public health officials on spread mitigation is crucial. It has been shown that most vaccines as they exist today are not effective whatsoever in protecting against Omicron infection,” says Dr. Harris.

None of the adenovirus vectored vaccines seem, according to early data, to have anything like a strong ability to protect against Omicron infection although AstraZenica claims an opposing view for its own vaccine where three doses have been taken. The Chinese vaccines are ineffective according to much data—including a study by two Hong Kong universities released Christmas eve which found that three doses of the Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine (CoronaVac) failed to provide sufficient antibodies to fend off Omicron.

Vaccinated or Not SARS-CoV-2/Omicron Active Cases increased rapidly

Vaccinated or Not Canada is slammed by Omicron/B.1.1.529 variant without Variant-specific Vaccines, however outcomes are mostly mild in other countries. Canada has no data yet. Note: Alberta data is 22 December (outdated). Alberta’s numbers are colossal according to health unit staff but will not be released by Alberta Health until around December 29 2021 according to officials in Edmonton. An example of how SARS-CoV-2/Omicron Active Cases increased rapidly in a country, Canada, that is well vaccinated. Source: Civil Society Partners against COVID-19

Canada COVID-19 Data for June 30, 2022

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Reported:3,948,18641,896 1.06% CFR3,852,87953,411
Estimate:21,833,46954,464 *0.25% IFR21,306,421295,363

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:41,8961.063,948,1863,852,87953,411
* Quebec15,5721.431,087,0251,061,41710,036
First Nations7400.67110,221108,0131,468
Nova Scotia4210.42101,34799,4061,520
* PEI450.1140,80639,6931,068
* NWT220.1812,13512,09419
Sub Totals41,8961.063,948,1863,852,87953,411

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,833,469 (56.35% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-06-29 are estimated to be 54,584 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,584 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54464 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54464 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.

Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District8,581570.7%8,44579
Brant County11,873830.7%11,74149
Durham Region63,0714960.8%62,295280
Eastern Ontario16,0972181.4%15,82158
Grey Bruce8,873690.8%8,76737
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge9,4981111.2%9,33255
Halton Region49,6273270.7%49,057243
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties10,388630.6%10,25471
Huron Perth7,4281111.5%7,29126
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington17,560600.3%17,298202
Lambton County11,9031461.2%11,72334
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District9,5671061.1%9,357104
Niagara Region41,5845481.3%40,829207
North Bay Parry Sound District6,132440.7%6,03751
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas13,9911691.2%13,76755
Peel Region186,6161,3560.7%184,468792
Peterborough County-City7,607801.1%7,48146
Renfrew County And District4,827501.0%4,74433
Simcoe Muskoka District46,6344380.9%45,927269
Sudbury And District15,5221501.0%15,240132
Thunder Bay District12,907960.7%12,640171
Waterloo Region46,7564210.9%46,139196
Windsor-Essex County44,2246321.4%43,433159
York Region112,8551,0420.9%111,193620
Last Updated: 2022-06-29 Time 05:46:25 GMT. Source: CSPaC