Weekend spike. Canada heads into COVID19 4th wave. Protect children say experts.
Many thanks to Airman 1st Class Brittni Capozzi for this awesome video for kids. (Joint Force Headquarters – Rhode Island National Guard)
Canada like the USA has experienced a sizeable weekend spike in COVID-19 cases which in Canada has led to a sum of 18.1 thousand active cases across the country. In the USA, that number is 6,248,573 by Monday evening.
What America has learned is that “more children are being hospitalized with severe illnesses” owing to the delta variant of SARS2.
Children made up 19.7 percent of COVID-19 cases in New Mexico during a seven day period, according to a DOH report published 9 August 2021
Dr. Anthony Fauci said at a briefing last week within the US White House COVID-19 response team, “The Delta variant is much more highly transmissible than was Alpha, so given that, you’ll see more children likely get infected. And since you have a certain percentage of children, even though the percentage is small, certain percentage of children will require hospitalization. So quantitatively, you will see more children in the hospital.”
Canadian provinces Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec in that order are leading the growth in cases in Canada, according to the provinces’ own public health units’ data.
“The latest national surveillance data indicate that a fourth wave is underway in Canada and that cases are plotting along a strong resurgence trajectory,” said Canada’s public health leader, Dr. Theresa Tam.
“This 4th wave could still be halted in Canada,” says Fred Harris, a biostatistician and infectious disease researcher in Singapore. But Dr. Harris is looking for immediately masking and vaccination responses.
Protecting children & young adults from the Delta VOC
is now key.
Kids ‘mask-up’ better than adults. Protect the children from the delta variant. Wear an N95 respirator mask. In this image, three different types of N95 masks are in use, based on the best fit and need per person. These children wear masks all day, most of the week and they have no comment about that because they became accustomed. They also wear Face Shields when indoors in busy locations like malls, school, dental appointment clinics and so on. Wearing high quality masks with proper straps, NOT EARLOOPS makes a difference. A big difference, say doctors, teachers and nurses.
Photo Credit: Melissa Hemingway/FPMag Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag
Preventing a vicious attack against children and young persons can still be accomplished by masking up and getting vaccinated.
“We have forecasted a deadly spike due to the delta variant but averting a return to the massive numbers Canada has experienced in the previous waves could be stopped today if at least another 8% of the population was inoculated by the end of August, give or take a few days, and if Canadians begin wearing respirators and that includes in schools,” encourages Dr. Harris.
“It is time to protect children because this Delta variant and future variants of concern will target children and young people, we believe. Statistically, that is what we know about this viruses’ mutations,” Dr. Harris added.
“Look at the peaks in these Canadian COVID-active case spikes. Is this where people want to go?” asks Dr. Harris rhetorically. A big spike over the weekend in both Canada and the USA is telltale. Mitigation efforts are lagging. Delta VOC of COVID-19 is slipping ahead of Canadians and Americans.
Many thanks to Airman 1st Class Brittni Capozzi for the above video for kids. (Joint Force Headquarters – Rhode Island National Guard)
Medical practitioners show children how best to wear their N95, making sure the straps are not too tight or too loose and that the children know how to manage the wearing of a respirator. “They are better at wearing an N95 than the adults we teach,” says NP. Photo Credit: Melissa Hemingway/FPMag Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag
With the last few databits coming in from the weekend, it is clear that Canada is entering a spike in Delta SARS2 virus infections and headed for a fourth wave.
Source: CSPaC
But Canada can handle this, say experts. Just mask up and get vaccinated.
January 22, 2022
Population: 38,585,269 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths
| Canada | Cases | Deaths | Cured | Active |
| Reported: | 2,891,410 | 32,376 1.12% CFR | 2,565,901 | 293,133 |
| Estimate: | 14,832,933 | 52,255 *0.35% IFR | 13,163,072 | 1,503,772 |
*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.
The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.
| Canada Provinces | Deaths | CFR% | Cases | Cured | Active |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 Totals: | 32,376 | 1.12 | 2,891,410 | 2,565,901 | 293,133 |
| Quebec | 12,698 | 1.54 | 824,941 | 761,214 | 51,029 |
| Ontario | 10,865 | 1.10 | 984,359 | 898,589 | 74,905 |
| Alberta | 3,429 | 0.73 | 466,616 | 401,572 | 61,615 |
| BC | 2,529 | 0.82 | 308,079 | 265,765 | 39,785 |
| Manitoba | 1,492 | 1.31 | 114,021 | 75,954 | 36,575 |
| SK | 969 | 0.91 | 106,328 | 93,160 | 12,199 |
| First Nations | 590 | 0.89 | 66,131 | 60,115 | 5,426 |
| NB | 201 | 0.80 | 25,003 | 20,083 | 4,719 |
| Nova Scotia | 128 | 0.39 | 33,083 | 27,525 | 5,430 |
| NL | 30 | 0.21 | 14,522 | 11,816 | 2,676 |
| Yukon | 15 | 0.53 | 2,820 | 2,592 | 213 |
| NWT | 13 | 0.28 | 4,700 | 3,322 | 1,365 |
| Nunavut | 5 | 0.39 | 1,297 | 1,097 | 195 |
| PEI | 2 | 0.04 | 5,628 | 3,199 | 2,427 |
| Repatriates | 0 | 13 | 13 | 0 | |
| Sub Totals | 32,376 | 1.12 | 2,891,410 | 2,565,901 | 293,133 |
Note: Above is region/county Health Unit reports from the province of Ontario and the individual units.
Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.
Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.
The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 14,832,933
(38.44% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases.
That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.35%
Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-01-21 are estimated to be 51,915 Using estimated IFR of 0.35% which is far below global average IFR.
51,915 (0.35% IFR) is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.
52255 Is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.
The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.
It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 52255 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.
Canada's advanced public health standards.
Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).
Ontario, Canada Reports
Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.
| Health Unit | Cases | Deaths | CFR | Recoveries | Active |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algoma District | 3,188 | 22 | 0.7% | 2,596 | 570 |
| Brant County | 8,733 | 51 | 0.6% | 7,784 | 898 |
| Chatham-Kent | 5,473 | 51 | 0.9% | 4,792 | 630 |
| Durham Region | 48,027 | 401 | 0.8% | 42,778 | 4,848 |
| Eastern Ontario | 11,697 | 166 | 1.4% | 10,292 | 1,239 |
| Grey Bruce | 5,069 | 37 | 0.7% | 4,717 | 315 |
| Haldimand-Norfolk | 5,975 | 75 | 1.3% | 5,260 | 640 |
| Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge | 5,481 | 74 | 1.4% | 4,710 | 697 |
| Halton Region | 38,245 | 273 | 0.7% | 35,133 | 2,839 |
| Hamilton | 43,437 | 447 | 1.0% | 39,405 | 3,585 |
| Hastings & Prince Edward Counties | 5,329 | 29 | 0.5% | 4,550 | 750 |
| Huron Perth | 4,718 | 80 | 1.7% | 4,236 | 402 |
| Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington | 8,167 | 28 | 0.3% | 7,591 | 548 |
| Lambton County | 8,151 | 101 | 1.2% | 7,098 | 952 |
| Leeds Grenville And Lanark District | 5,141 | 73 | 1.4% | 4,494 | 574 |
| Middlesex-London | 27,139 | 280 | 1.0% | 24,135 | 2,724 |
| Niagara Region | 29,632 | 468 | 1.6% | 26,504 | 2,660 |
| North Bay Parry Sound District | 2,464 | 11 | 0.4% | 2,239 | 214 |
| Northwestern | 2,828 | 12 | 0.4% | 2,407 | 409 |
| Ottawa | 54,781 | 657 | 1.2% | 49,962 | 4,162 |
| Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas | 9,493 | 130 | 1.4% | 8,521 | 842 |
| Peel Region | 159,368 | 1,057 | 0.7% | 148,114 | 10,197 |
| Peterborough County-City | 4,590 | 41 | 0.9% | 4,029 | 520 |
| Porcupine | 3,942 | 33 | 0.8% | 3,485 | 424 |
| Renfrew County And District | 2,473 | 17 | 0.7% | 2,094 | 362 |
| Simcoe Muskoka District | 29,934 | 309 | 1.0% | 26,789 | 2,836 |
| Sudbury And District | 8,166 | 74 | 0.9% | 6,662 | 1,430 |
| Thunder Bay District | 6,020 | 73 | 1.2% | 5,075 | 872 |
| Timiskaming | 903 | 6 | 0.7% | 769 | 128 |
| Toronto | 259,062 | 3,857 | 1.5% | 239,809 | 15,396 |
| Waterloo Region | 36,305 | 334 | 0.9% | 32,177 | 3,794 |
| Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph | 16,425 | 133 | 0.8% | 15,039 | 1,253 |
| Windsor-Essex County | 32,506 | 538 | 1.7% | 29,469 | 2,499 |
| York Region | 91,497 | 927 | 1.0% | 85,874 | 4,696 |
| Totals: | 984359 | 10865 | 1.10% | 898589 | 74905 |
Teaching children to wear an N95 respirator is easy. Protect the children from the delta variant. Wear an N95 respirator mask.
Photo Credit: Melissa Hemingway. Art/Cropping/Enhancement: Rosa Yamamoto FPMag
