Weekend spike. Canada heads into COVID19 4th wave. Protect children say experts.

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Many thanks to Airman 1st Class Brittni Capozzi for this awesome video for kids. (Joint Force Headquarters – Rhode Island National Guard)

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Canada like the USA has experienced a sizeable weekend spike in COVID-19 cases which in Canada has led to a sum of 18.1 thousand active cases across the country. In the USA, that number is 6,248,573 by Monday evening.

What America has learned is that “more children are being hospitalized with severe illnesses” owing to the delta variant of SARS2.

Children made up 19.7 percent of COVID-19 cases in New Mexico during a seven day period, according to a DOH report published 9 August 2021

Dr. Anthony Fauci said at a briefing last week within the US White House COVID-19 response team, “The Delta variant is much more highly transmissible than was Alpha, so given that, you’ll see more children likely get infected. And since you have a certain percentage of children, even though the percentage is small, certain percentage of children will require hospitalization. So quantitatively, you will see more children in the hospital.”

Canadian provinces Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec in that order are leading the growth in cases in Canada, according to the provinces’ own public health units’ data.

“The latest national surveillance data indicate that a fourth wave is underway in Canada and that cases are plotting along a strong resurgence trajectory,” said Canada’s public health leader, Dr. Theresa Tam.

“This 4th wave could still be halted in Canada,” says Fred Harris, a biostatistician and infectious disease researcher in Singapore. But Dr. Harris is looking for immediately masking and vaccination responses.

Protecting children &  young adults from the Delta VOC
is now key.

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Preventing a vicious attack against children and young persons can still be accomplished by masking up and getting vaccinated.

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“We have forecasted a deadly spike due to the delta variant but averting a return to the massive numbers Canada has experienced in the previous waves could be stopped today if at least another 8% of the population was inoculated by the end of August, give or take a few days, and if Canadians begin wearing respirators and that includes in schools,” encourages Dr. Harris.

“It is time to protect children because this Delta variant and future variants of concern will target children and young people, we believe. Statistically, that is what we know about this viruses’ mutations,” Dr. Harris added.

Many thanks to Airman 1st Class Brittni Capozzi for the above video for kids. (Joint Force Headquarters – Rhode Island National Guard)

June 27, 2022

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Canada	Cases	Deaths	Cured	Active
Reported:	3,941,183	41,879 1.06% CFR	3,847,110	52,194
Estimate:	21,794,742	54,442 *0.25% IFR	21,274,518	288,633

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada Provinces	Deaths	CFR%	Cases	Cured	Active
COVID-19 Totals:	41,879	1.06	3,941,183	3,847,110	52,194
* Quebec	15,559	1.43	1,085,058	1,059,985	9,514
Ontario	13,445	1.01	1,337,296	1,303,792	20,059
Alberta	4,604	0.78	587,890	574,468	8,818
BC	3,722	1.00	373,985	364,642	5,621
Manitoba	2,025	1.39	145,326	141,121	2,180
Sask	1,395	1.00	138,992	135,512	2,085
First Nations	740	0.67	110,221	108,013	1,468
NB	421	0.63	66,345	64,929	995
Nova Scotia	421	0.42	99,514	97,600	1,493
NL	187	0.40	46,647	45,760	700
* PEI	45	0.11	39,998	39,363	590
Yukon	26	0.58	4,453	4,360	67
* NWT	22	0.18	12,135	12,094	19
Nunavut	7	0.20	3,531	3,471	53
Repatriates	0		13	13	0
Sub Totals	41,879	1.06	3,941,183	3,847,110	52,194

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,794,742 (56.25% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-06-27 are estimated to be 54,487 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,487 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54442 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54442 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

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Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.

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Health Unit	Cases	Deaths	CFR	Recoveries	Active
Algoma District	8,581	57	0.7%	8,445	79
Brant County	11,873	83	0.7%	11,741	49
Chatham-Kent	8,798	92	1.0%	8,683	23
Durham Region	63,071	496	0.8%	62,295	280
Eastern Ontario	16,097	218	1.4%	15,821	58
Grey Bruce	8,873	69	0.8%	8,767	37
Haldimand-Norfolk	8,810	83	0.9%	8,685	42
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge	9,498	111	1.2%	9,332	55
Halton Region	49,627	327	0.7%	49,057	243
Hamilton	58,974	571	1.0%	58,066	337
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties	10,388	63	0.6%	10,254	71
Huron Perth	7,428	111	1.5%	7,291	26
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington	17,560	60	0.3%	17,298	202
Lambton County	11,903	146	1.2%	11,723	34
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District	9,567	106	1.1%	9,357	104
Middlesex-London	38,523	401	1.0%	37,964	158
Niagara Region	41,584	548	1.3%	40,829	207
North Bay Parry Sound District	6,132	44	0.7%	6,037	51
Northwestern	9,604	22	0.2%	9,266	316
Ottawa	74,552	818	1.1%	73,252	482
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas	13,991	169	1.2%	13,767	55
Peel Region	186,616	1,356	0.7%	184,468	792
Peterborough County-City	7,607	80	1.1%	7,481	46
Porcupine	7,431	69	0.9%	7,321	41
Renfrew County And District	4,827	50	1.0%	4,744	33
Simcoe Muskoka District	46,634	438	0.9%	45,927	269
Sudbury And District	15,522	150	1.0%	15,240	132
Thunder Bay District	12,907	96	0.7%	12,640	171
Timiskaming	1,985	24	1.2%	1,946	15
Toronto	324,716	4,263	1.3%	318,653	1,800
Waterloo Region	46,756	421	0.9%	46,139	196
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph	22,462	162	0.7%	22,193	107
Windsor-Essex County	44,224	632	1.4%	43,433	159
York Region	112,855	1,042	0.9%	111,193	620

Last Updated: 2022-06-27 Time 10:09:17 GMT. Source: CSPaC