USA COVID-19 CFR stays down thanks to Biden vaccination campaign

Since 18 August the USA averaged 1,229 COVID-19 deaths a day* in a 4th wave that would have been much worse if not for vaccinations being at 55%. Vaccination levels in the USA need to go higher says every single doctor FPMag could reach.

According to several biostatistician sources, while the COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the United States has dropped a decimal point from 1.8% to 1.7% since 3 August 2021, the number of deaths in the United States is now averaging  707 cases for all of August thus far,  but since the 18th of August the USA has averaged 1,229 COVID-19 deaths per day. (Download if you wish, COVID-19 USA CSV database for August.)

*Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19.

“Dropping the case fatality rate is a significant accomplishment, largely attributable to the Biden Administration’s aggressive vaccination campaign,” notes Fred Harris, biostatistician and infectious disease researcher in Singapore. Harris leads the tracking team for the CSPaC.

“The USA COVID-19 CFR has been at 1.8% since 12 December 2020. Before that it was above 2.%,” notes Dr. Harris.

“This could be much worse, but if anything proves that vaccines work, it is the lowered CFR in the USA. This is a major achievement,” says the expert.


USA COVID-19 Data for September 29, 2022

U.S.A. (pop. 331,557,193)

  • CoV19 Reported Cases: 97,502,133
  • Current Reported Deaths:(CFR: 1.12%): 1,076,870 estimated actual: 1,330,645
  • Cured: 94,795,655
  • Beta experimental: All time reported + unreported asymptomatic people maybe not sick, not immune, but possibly infectious and including the many people who have had several mild or asymptomatic infections: 532,258,175.54
  • 160.53% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (532,258,175.54) human infections, some of which may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
  • 1.12% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
  • 0.25% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
  • 1,330,645 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is estimating.
Rest of the world excluding USA.
  • CoV19 Cases: 523,387,623
  • Deaths: 5,487,178 | 1.06%
  • Cured: 506,611,727
  • Reported + estimated all unreported 3,433,520,350

Note: Total statistics for the United States do not include these offshore territories. The US Military is included as if it is an offshore territory, not reported as continental USA data but as USA overall totals and included in world totals. FPMag evaluates these separately for many reasons.

Continental US96,249,2181,076,870 | 1.12%94,026,983
+US Military739,137689 | 0.1%674,775
+Guam58,466401 | 0.7%57,893
+Puerto Rico 410,7935,104 | 1.24%379,494
+US Virgin Islands23,109123 | 0.5%22,887
+Northern Mariana Islands13,16640 | 0.3%13,117
+American Samoa8,24434 | 0.4%7,526

The American Epicenter including ALL Territories has 12.57 % of global 'active' cases (1,623,251 USA (incl territories) / 12,918,326 Global), people infected with COVID-19 now.

Abundant proof that vaccines are working, an observation derived from unrelated data analysis.

As the epicenter we look at continental USA together with US territories and without. The significant decline in Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the continental United States particularly, during 2 0 2 1, since vaccines became available, is believed to be due to vaccination rates and is abundant proof that the vaccines are working.

In order to avoid letting countries that refuse to report the sum of case recoveries, thus skewing global calculations, Burundi, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Britain, most provinces of Canada, Ecuador, FaeroeIslands, Falklands, Finland, France, French Polynesia, Hong Kong, Iceland, Mongolia, Laos, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Ukraine, South Korea, Tunisia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Spain and Sweden 'recoveries' are estimated based on the current reported global recoveries as a percentage of all cases. (([reported recoveries]) divide (620,889,756 [Global Reported Sum of All Cases] less 34,257,654 [France Sum of Cases] less 1,003,778 [Ecuador Sum of Cases] less 13,412,263 [Spain Sum of Cases] less 8,422,336 [Netherlands Sum of Cases] less 2,583,370 [Sweden Sum of Cases] less 4,142,104 [Peru Sum of Cases])) = 97% a coefficient which is then adjusted according to the number of cases in the past 30 days and the new coefficient is applied to the sum of each of these nation's cumulative cases to estimate the missing recoveries data. In the case of France some additional hospital-sourced recovery data is factored.

All USASum of CasesDeathsRecoveredActive
Continental USA96,249,2181,076,87094,026,9831,145,365
USA+territories97,502,1331,083,22794,795,655 1,623,251


See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

See also IHME Estimates for America.