Canada SARS2-delta jumps faster than expected into 4th COVID-19 wave

In the past 24 hours, a pronounced spike in COVID-19 cases, primarily delta VOC cases, swept across Canada. Even the Northwest Territories, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland,  and the Yukon have seen rising case numbers.  Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec have seen substantial increases. (See the charts below for exact data.)

“I have not wanted to say this before but this fourth wave could, without extraordinary mitigation, be the worst Canada has seen,” says Fred Harris from Singapore where he leads the COVID-19 emergency infectious disease tracking team for the CSPaC.

“Another 7% of the population vaccinated by month end and universal N95 FFR wearing are needed to stave off the worst of this current wave. That’s a matter of fact,” Dr. Harris added.

“The delta variant of concern; the lambda variant of interest; roughly a million or more unvaccinated children heading back to school amidst an infectious disease surge; vaccine hesitancy; a September 20 election and all its public gatherings; waning vaccine efficacy; and the Canadian population’s extremely poor mitigation of previous waves of the COVID-19 disease, all add up to a potential disaster,” said Dr. Harris in a zoom call from Singapore.

Over 900 children in Canada have been made ill by COVID-19 recently in Canada according to Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam. But school has yet to begin. 

One of the concerns that Dr. Tam is stressing is that spread of the disease must be stopped to prevent even more threatening Variants of Concern (VOC).

The incipient stage of a fourth wave in Canada

The incipient stage of a fourth COVID-19 Pandemic wave in Canada. Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

Active cases climb faster than expected as Canada rolls into a 4th wave

Active cases climb faster than expected as Canada rolls into a 4th wave. Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (state-sponsored media) reports in Canada that masks are being required for schools in Ontario.

Before this surge

Late July, active SARS2 cases were still dropping in Canada

The beginning of the surge was 30 July. Mid-July, active SARS2 infection cases were still dropping in Canada. Since late July, almost three weeks ago, active cases have risen on average 5,000 per week in growth. In the past 24 hours active cases have risen by roughly 1300 patients. Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

June 30, 2022 Details COVID-19 Infections Summary for Canadian Provinces

June 30, 2022 COVID-19 Data for Canada from CSPaC

Population: 38,745,871 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

Reported:3,951,34741,907 1.06% CFR3,855,02854,412
Estimate:21,850,94954,479 *0.25% IFR21,318,305300,898

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:41,9071.063,951,3473,855,02854,412
* Quebec15,5761.431,088,7431,061,98711,180
First Nations7420.67110,651108,2491,660
Nova Scotia4210.42101,34799,4061,520
* PEI450.1140,80639,6931,068
* NWT220.1812,13512,09419
Sub Totals41,9071.063,951,3473,855,02854,412

Recoveries are estimated using a Canadian-specific algorithm. Canadian COVID-19 Data is weekly by the country. Some data CSPAC obtains from Public Health Units is updated daily.

* Quebec, * Northwest Territories, * Prince Edward Island data is current daily.
Note: Last available First Nations data is shown when provided by the federal government of Canada.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 21,850,949 (56.40% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.25%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-06-30 are estimated to be 54,627 Using estimated IFR of 0.25% which is far below global average IFR.

54,627 (0.25% IFR) is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

See The Lancet estimate of excess mortality from COVID-19 (Download PDF) in 191 countries/territories and 252 subnational units of select countries, from 1 January 2 0 2 0, to 31 December 2 0 2 1.

54479 Is the CSPaC estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 54479 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports

Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.

These reports from the Ontario Provincial government differ significantly (much lower) from the data reported by individual Public Health Units (PHU). CSPaC includes links to each PHU to allow readers of this report to check the latest data from their public health unit.

Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District8,581570.7%8,44579
Brant County11,873830.7%11,74149
Durham Region63,0714960.8%62,295280
Eastern Ontario16,0972181.4%15,82158
Grey Bruce8,873690.8%8,76737
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge9,4981111.2%9,33255
Halton Region49,6273270.7%49,057243
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties10,388630.6%10,25471
Huron Perth7,4281111.5%7,29126
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington17,560600.3%17,298202
Lambton County11,9031461.2%11,72334
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District9,5671061.1%9,357104
Niagara Region41,5845481.3%40,829207
North Bay Parry Sound District6,132440.7%6,03751
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas13,9911691.2%13,76755
Peel Region186,6161,3560.7%184,468792
Peterborough County-City7,607801.1%7,48146
Renfrew County And District4,827501.0%4,74433
Simcoe Muskoka District46,6344380.9%45,927269
Sudbury And District15,5221501.0%15,240132
Thunder Bay District12,907960.7%12,640171
Waterloo Region46,7564210.9%46,139196
Windsor-Essex County44,2246321.4%43,433159
York Region112,8551,0420.9%111,193620
Last Updated: 2022-06-30 Time 13:58:02 GMT. Source: CSPaC