Canada SARS2-delta jumps faster than expected into 4th COVID-19 wave



In the past 24 hours, a pronounced spike in COVID-19 cases, primarily delta VOC cases, swept across Canada. Even the Northwest Territories, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland,  and the Yukon have seen rising case numbers.  Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec have seen substantial increases. (See the charts below for exact data.)

“I have not wanted to say this before but this fourth wave could, without extraordinary mitigation, be the worst Canada has seen,” says Fred Harris from Singapore where he leads the COVID-19 emergency infectious disease tracking team for the CSPaC.

“Another 7% of the population vaccinated by month end and universal N95 FFR wearing are needed to stave off the worst of this current wave. That’s a matter of fact,” Dr. Harris added.


“The delta variant of concern; the lambda variant of interest; roughly a million or more unvaccinated children heading back to school amidst an infectious disease surge; vaccine hesitancy; a September 20 election and all its public gatherings; waning vaccine efficacy; and the Canadian population’s extremely poor mitigation of previous waves of the COVID-19 disease, all add up to a potential disaster,” said Dr. Harris in a zoom call from Singapore.


Over 900 children in Canada have been made ill by COVID-19 recently in Canada according to Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam. But school has yet to begin. 

One of the concerns that Dr. Tam is stressing is that spread of the disease must be stopped to prevent even more threatening Variants of Concern (VOC).

The incipient stage of a fourth wave in Canada

The incipient stage of a fourth COVID-19 Pandemic wave in Canada. Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

Active cases climb faster than expected as Canada rolls into a 4th wave

Active cases climb faster than expected as Canada rolls into a 4th wave. Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (state-sponsored media) reports in Canada that masks are being required for schools in Ontario.

Before this surge

Late July, active SARS2 cases were still dropping in Canada

The beginning of the surge was 30 July. Mid-July, active SARS2 infection cases were still dropping in Canada. Since late July, almost three weeks ago, active cases have risen on average 5,000 per week in growth. In the past 24 hours active cases have risen by roughly 1300 patients. Source: Civil Society Partners in Solidarity against COVID-19

January 18, 2022 Details COVID-19 Infections Summary for Canadian Provinces

January 18, 2022 COVID-19 Data for Canada from CSPaC

Population: 38,585,269 adjusted for estimated real COVID-19 deaths

CanadaCasesDeathsCuredActive
Reported:2,801,13331,674 1.13% CFR2,435,778333,681
Estimate:14,369,81251,122 *0.36% IFR12,495,5411,711,784

*Inferred IFR is an estimate only. The actual COVID-19 IFR may not be accurately calculated for the entire human race until long after the pandemic has ended.

The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

Canada ProvincesDeathsCFR%CasesCuredActive
COVID-19 Totals:31,6741.132,801,1332,435,778333,681
Quebec12,3641.54801,152734,64954,139
Ontario10,6281.11956,607851,36594,614
Alberta3,4030.75452,381376,61072,368
BC2,4900.83299,146257,67738,979
Manitoba1,4631.32110,59369,16939,961
SK9610.95101,53788,93411,642
First Nations5770.9461,53255,4995,456
NB1890.8223,17318,0684,916
Nova Scotia1170.3830,95022,8627,971
NL260.2013,0327,6705,336
Yukon150.552,7202,417288
NWT120.284,2332,9541,267
Nunavut40.331,195923268
PEI20.054,4012,4671,932
Repatriates013130
Sub Totals31,6741.132,801,1332,435,778333,681

Note: Above is region/county Health Unit reports from the province of Ontario and the individual units.

Below: Extensive Estimates using data from multiple sources.

Beta experimental estimates for Canada. Reported + unreported mild + asymptomatic COVID-19 infections.

The total actual number of infections in Canada including all the untested, unreported, asymptomatic infections is likely greater than 14,369,812 (37.24% of the population) including mild and asymptomatic cases. That would mean the estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate:
(IFR) is likely around 0.36%

Canadian COVID-19 deaths to 2022-01-18 are estimated to be 51,731 Using estimated IFR of 0.36% which is far below global average IFR.

51,731 (0.36% IFR) is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths (based on the inferred IFR) including those deaths unreported as COVID-19). The IHME estimates excess deaths in Canada to reach much higher than CSPaC estimates.

51122 Is the estimated number of Canadian COVID-19 deaths based on a modified universal algorithm which factors more sophisticated public health infrastructure and also fewer available urgent care beds and facilities which is a problem in much of Canada in an emergency measures context.

The closeness of the two numbers derived from unique data and methods suggests their high probability. The blended data of three projections from three different biostatistician labs also confirms the estimates +/- .01%.

It is safe to say that Canadians have endured the grief of losing 51122 family members. Every number has a face. May their memory be forever a blessing to their families and friends.

Canada's advanced public health standards.

Canada and the USA both have a significantly lower than global average Infection Fatality Rate. (influenza has an IFR of .1% or 6 per 100k (2019)).

Ontario, Canada Reports


Ontario Regional Public Health Units (PHU) - Reported by Ontario Province.


Health UnitCasesDeathsCFRRecoveriesActive
Algoma District2,984210.7%2,399564
Brant County8,359440.5%7,3051,010
Chatham-Kent5,186440.8%4,364778
Durham Region46,6253960.8%39,6396,590
Eastern Ontario11,2751551.4%9,4231,697
Grey Bruce4,907360.7%4,453418
Haldimand-Norfolk5,742751.3%4,871796
Haliburton Kawartha Pine Ridge5,267731.4%4,331863
Halton Region36,6232680.7%32,6843,671
Hamilton42,0204331.0%36,9134,674
Hastings & Prince Edward Counties5,161240.5%4,1181,019
Huron Perth4,549781.7%3,992479
Kingston Frontenac Lennox & Addington7,967260.3%7,141800
Lambton County7,820961.2%6,6521,072
Leeds Grenville And Lanark District4,915671.4%4,266582
Middlesex-London26,2402701.0%22,8243,146
Niagara Region28,7154631.6%25,0553,197
North Bay Parry Sound District2,31590.4%2,002304
Northwestern2,681110.4%2,107563
Ottawa53,4986481.2%47,4465,404
Oxford Elgin-St.Thomas9,1771281.4%8,093956
Peel Region155,3851,0500.7%142,18512,150
Peterborough County-City4,421390.9%3,715667
Porcupine3,788330.9%3,270485
Renfrew County And District2,348170.7%1,919412
Simcoe Muskoka District28,7012961.0%24,9133,492
Sudbury And District7,765680.9%6,1771,520
Thunder Bay District5,695721.3%4,790833
Timiskaming85450.6%707142
Toronto253,8433,8021.5%230,39019,651
Waterloo Region34,9263260.9%29,7704,830
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph15,9301310.8%14,3081,491
Windsor-Essex County31,5225211.7%27,8043,197
York Region89,4039031.0%81,3397,161
Totals:956607106281.11%85136594614
Last Updated: 2022-01-18 Time 05:12:06 GMT. Source: CSPaC