Vaccine Nationalism will cause worse SARSCoV2 VOC mutations
“On 13 April, 2021, some developing countries had a Case Fatality Rate between 4% and 9.2 %. Those numbers are growing as more dangerous VOC spread. Wave after wave of surges will continue to hit the human race until every human is vaccinated with an effective vaccine against the coming new VOC. Over the next ten years, if only 36% of the population is vaccinated, with a vaccine that is efficacious against the coming new and more deadly variants, 95% of the human race will be wiped out by 2031. That is in accordance to one of the computer generated models of the Civil Society Solidarity Team against COVID-19″ (Citing: COVID-19 dividing, defeating human race. Caring and sharing needed now.)
That was a point of argument against Vaccine Nationalism and in favour of a COVID-19 Vaccine “Caring-and-Sharing paradigm for Equitable distribution of Vaccines” wherein the global NGO ‘RINJ Women’ have asked women-leaders to donate vaccines to countries in need of vaccines under the COVAX programme or directly.
A number of readers have written asking about this ‘scenario‘. FPMag went back to the sources for answers.
“It’s a paradigm shift from ‘me first—-me only’ to ‘equitable vaccine distribution through caring and sharing'”, says Katie Alsop of RINJ Women. “The human race needs to make this shift,” she added.
When asked about the dismal prediction for 2031, she explained, “It is straightforward. This SARS2 is not going away and there will even be other worse pandemics. The way the science team in Singapore explain it, if millions more people are allowed to become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and its variations, because vaccine nationalism is denying whole countries a vaccine, those infected people will host a SARS2 virus that is eager to learn more about the human body and mutate into something more effective in taking over the human body. The world has been calling those ‘variants’ or VOC. We think they are monsters.”
Asking computers some questions.
Putting the same question to biostatistician Fred Harris of the Civil Society COVID19 partners team, he said that, “By now we have an enormous pool of pandemic data from all around the world. Every fact we learn we plug into algorithms that apply heuristic computer learning and certain levels of artificial intelligence and then we ask questions.”
“We have data on vaccinations which is coupled with public health mitigation methods like mask-wearing, social distancing, hand washing and more. That is the only ‘how-to” for ending the pandemic. Failing that, what happens? That’s the kind of question we can ask the computers,” said Harris.
“And remember,” added Mr. Harris, “we are talking about the fatality rates in the poorest countries, not the ones with the best health care systems and of course, the most likely to be vaccinated in large numbers, at the root of vaccine nationalism. But where this fails for those nations, is the bizarre virus mutations that are being spawned in poorer nations. Those VOC will not be phased by the resistance afforded by vaccinations as they will have changed their identification parameters or something we have yet to predict.”
“I know that many scientists are predicting another 4.6 years before herd immunity kicks in because of vaccine nationalism, but we were asked for a scenario where there is no herd immunity and only 36% of the world population is vaccinated. That’s what would happen if the current status quo was maintained, by the way. Like America cornering 800 million doses for itself and Britain enough to vaccinate its population 4 to 5 times over. It’s a realistic study request, the RINJ Women asked for, so we did the work.”
“For example,” said Harris, “Mexico today has a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 9.2%. Across the border in the USA the CFR is 1.8%. Mexico, as far as we know, is already creating its own variants—nothing yet to be alarmed about but wait and see,” Harris cautioned.
Morphing into something that is “Unstoppable”
“That 9.2% CFR number is realistic for most poorer nations with weaker health care systems in a couple of years when the SARS-CoV-2 has morphed into its best possible self at taking over human bodies. The mutations like the B.1.1.7, while being very dangerous, are pussy cats compared to the beasts we might see in the future. So 9.2% is not an unreasonable CFR if a substantial vaccination level is not achieved and the SARS2 virus is left to its own devices to mutate into something that is unstoppable.”
“The worst case but realistic scenario in a “Vaccine Nationalism Regime” was a vaccination level halted at 36% (it’s somewhere around 16% now) thereafter the poorest nations with the weakest health care systems will in a de facto sense, ‘incubate the virus‘. Then after ten years and dozens of waves of new mutations, the decimation of the human race,” said Harris.
“The population ranges in the worst case scenarios are from 400 million, to 785 million healthy people left on Earth after ten more years of a runaway pandemic in a Vaccine Nationalism paradigm.”
“Isn’t that enough incentive to work together to solve the problem now?” he asked rhetorically.
|Name||Manufacturer||Type of vaccine||Efficacy rate|
|Ad26.COV2.S||Janssen (Johnson & Johnson)||Viral vector||66%|
|AZD1222||Oxford-AstraZeneca||Viral vector||81.3%Trusted Source|
|Covishield*||Serum Institute of India||Viral vector||81.3%|
|Sputnik V||Gamaleya||Viral vector||91.6%Trusted Source|
|BBIBP-CorV||Sinopharm (Beijing)||Inactivated||79.34%Trusted Source|
|Inactivated (Vero Cell)||Sinopharm (Wuhan)||Inactivated||72.51%|
|RBD-dimer||Anhui Zhifei Longcom||Protein subunit||Unknown|