Editorial: China move against Taiwan is not likely. It cannot win.
China will continue to badger, bewilder, bully and annoy.
What some are calling ‘grey-zone’ tactics are exactly what Beijing is doing to Taiwan with its military drills, aircraft-carrier group show-and-tell and nuclear bombers. It’s slightly below the threshold and China is keeping it there.
Were China to make a military move against Taiwan, Japan and the United States along with maybe a large portion of 33 allies including most of NATO would bar be que the Chinese invading force. China likely believes that.
Unequivocally, Taiwan does not belong to China. The argumenent that China makes is as intellectually bankrupt as the Nine-Dash-Line.
It might be worse than that for the People’s Republic of China.
It is surprising in many ways that much of the world has not paid attention to the history in this caper. China says it has a “One China Policy” meaning that it wants to re-write history to merge the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC) but that is not possible.
Essentially, the Republic of China is Taiwan and the ‘People’s Republic of China’ is Beijing’s mainland China.
If Xi Jinping’s Communist China’s argument were given credence, Taiwan would rule mainland China.
In 1945, following Japan’s defeat, Japan gave the island of Taiwan to the Republic of China which then in 1947, in the midst of a ferocious political battle and eventual civil war between the Kuomintang government of Republic of China and the communists, moved the seat of power to Taipei, Taiwan, maintaining that it would soon seize back the mainland China. It didn’t however, and continued to grow Taiwan into a democratic powerhouse.
That China theory that it can say a thing is a thing, and promise it to the Chinese people, is the same old corrupt-mindedness that caused the split in the first place.
Some history on this topic is contained in this article: China Nine-Dash-Line is not malice but likely is hysterical fanaticism.
China does not own the Island of Taiwan. Despite what anyone says, Taiwan has become an independent self-governing Island-State. It is a de facto independent state in its own right, and China needs to tell its people the truth.
If China’s Communist Party decides to invade Taiwan, and loses, it will also lose its mainland and will have killed millions by the time it is all over.
There is no future in that, only the probability that it will lose credibility with its own people and the Communist Party governance.
For China, the status quo was a lot better. Now that it pushes the issue with sovereign violations of Taiwan’s space, and the fairy story merge of the two political dinosaurs of 1947 is not even entertainment.
The CCP would not risk losing all its holdings by launching a military attack against Taiwan. Even its friends and allies are saying pretty much the same thing out of earshot.
China needs to get the ‘Finished Business’ stamp out and stamp the Taiwan matter closed.